My thoughts on poker.

    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      I have now been playing poker on and off for three years. Not surprisingly lost everything I was stupid enough to deposit in the beginning. In the last few months I have been able to improve my game and can consider myself as a decent player. By no way a very good one, but having reached the final table in tournaments (both live, and online) on more than one occasion should be good enough. Cash tables are another matter, because for some reason I have yet to win there in a regular fashion. Perhaps it is the amount of fish there, though that would not make sense, as it is the different species of fish that ultimately are responsible that the dinner is served each evening for good poker players, and their mates.

      However, having lost with KK in three times a row (not slowplaying or anything stupid), I now wonder this:

      Assume you get dealt AA five times in a row. The best course of action is by all means raising, or re-raising, and getting the chips in pre-flop. Now, you win 80% of the time, i.e four out of five times. Assuming your opponent (be he a sea-animal, or not) has more chips than you, and he/she calls, then you will ultimately lose everything at the table. (At this time I really do not care, how much the other players lose in total, though I am happy to see some people who have busted me out losing their money, or getting sucked out. I really do enjoy that.) This is especially true tournaments, as it is not reasonable to leave one in the middle of it.

      Even in cash tables, who would leave the table, seeing pocket aces in his hand?

      I am really lost here. Is there something fundamentally wrong in my thinking?
      As said, I do not categorize myself as a bad player any more, but I still keep losing money most of the time, and 90% of the time with hands like KK and AA, or a set. And no, I do not believe that poker is rigged, altough I would at times like to think so. Having sucket out people myself on river miracles, I really can not make any accustations.

      That said, is it really possible to make soome kind of living out of it? For it does not seem to work out for me, or at least it has not done so thus far, and on most days I still keep losing more that I have put in.
  • 10 replies
    • Wizard101
      Wizard101
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2009 Posts: 34
      take a break dude
    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      I do have a ball for throwing around, and catching, when I go on tilt. It is a really good way to reduce tension, and improve coordination skills at the same time. My agility has hugely improved in the last 3 or so months, simply by playing poker. :)

      So I am not really worried about tilting. I have lost money because of it, but it is not a major leak.
    • Chemist416
      Chemist416
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 1
      I have the same difficulty sometimes on cash tables. At lower limits such as .25/.50 .50/1.00 or even 1.00/2.00 you face a lot of players who do not know or recognize when they are beat so they keep calling and end up making the best hand on fifth street. I advise you to play 2.00/4.00 or 5.00/10.00 and up and also stick to tournaments that's what I do for now. It is just not worth playing low limit hold em. You could lose $100.00 dollars on the 5.00/10.00 tables and make it back quickly not the same with low limits, you just seem to be on a never ending losing streak.
    • whySoSerious50
      whySoSerious50
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 38
      Originally posted by Chemist416
      I have the same difficulty sometimes on cash tables. At lower limits such as .25/.50 .50/1.00 or even 1.00/2.00 you face a lot of players who do not know or recognize when they are beat so they keep calling and end up making the best hand on fifth street. I advise you to play 2.00/4.00 or 5.00/10.00 and up and also stick to tournaments that's what I do for now. It is just not worth playing low limit hold em. You could lose $100.00 dollars on the 5.00/10.00 tables and make it back quickly not the same with low limits, you just seem to be on a never ending losing streak.
      Well, that doesn't make any sense at all. If I were to ask 'shoud I deposit 1000$ and get past the low limits right away?' I believe most would say that one has got to have experience before they rise in the blind ladder.

      As far as the op goes, I guess we've all been there. Post some of those hands you consider are breaking you, get some second opinion on your lines.
    • johnboy1
      johnboy1
      Silver
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 40
      phew after reading all that what was your point again................
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      tl;dr, cliffs?
    • whateverdude
      whateverdude
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      Err, Styr, in order for the 5 times AA scenario to happen, and your opponent to have more chips than you, he'd need to have 16 stacks in front of him if he was the one calling all of your allins, or 5-6 if you stacked other people, and got called by him in the last loosing hand.

      So yeah, your logic is flawed.

      Seeing you are having trouble at cash, but doing ok at tournaments, and talking about losing with KK and AA makes me think that maybe you have trouble playing "deep stacked"(deep in this case means 75bb+, or "deep" for a tournament player's standards).

      Cause I personally had a serious problem with winning small pots and losing big ones with the premium hands in the beginning.

      I reccommend you to take advantage of the hand judgement forums, odds are you are overplaying your premiums postflop as all tournament players do in cash in the beginning.
    • Janosikgdy
      Janosikgdy
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2007 Posts: 4,472
      Sorry for spam
      Whysoserious: Do you play on evp? I think that I have seen you there couple of times;-)
    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      Originally posted by whateverdude
      Err, Styr, in order for the 5 times AA scenario to happen, and your opponent to have more chips than you, he'd need to have 16 stacks in front of him if he was the one calling all of your allins, or 5-6 if you stacked other people, and got called by him in the last loosing hand.

      So yeah, your logic is flawed.

      Seeing you are having trouble at cash, but doing ok at tournaments, and talking about losing with KK and AA makes me think that maybe you have trouble playing "deep stacked"(deep in this case means 75bb+, or "deep" for a tournament player's standards).

      Cause I personally had a serious problem with winning small pots and losing big ones with the premium hands in the beginning.

      I reccommend you to take advantage of the hand judgement forums, odds are you are overplaying your premiums postflop as all tournament players do in cash in the beginning.
      Well, something similiar could very well happen in a tournament, if I were shortstacked.

      As far as my tournament play goes, then I have found deep-stack play far more profitable, though more time-consuming. Short stack tournaments remind more of a lottery, than anything else.

      I have already posted many of my hands for more skilled people to judge, and have learned quite a lot from their analysis. And while I have repaired several holes in my play, I really can not influence the lower beings in the food-chain. It just annoys me, that while I have built my stack at a table or a tournament, I suddenly get sucked out by somebody who has a bigger stack than I do, be they fish, or not.
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Just to add something for Styr: Do you know how variation works? Here's a simple explanation.

      You flip a coin and you know there's an exactly 50% chance if will fall on "Heads" or "Tails.

      Statistics tells you that in a big enough sample size the coin will fall exactly 50% on it's Heads, right? Noone tells you just how big the sample size it. Say you toss in 1000000 times and Head come 499999 times and Tails comes 500001 times. This doesn't mean Tails is more probable. It means the sample size is not big enough and it deviates from the statistical probability.

      However to understand variation you have to realize that it is COMPLETELY possible for the coin to end even 20 times in a row on Heads. This doesn't mean that the Heads side is more probable to come. It's just the way variation works - it doesn't care for previous or future outcomes of the coin toss, it just falls on one side of the coin regardless of the previous outcome.

      So to take this into AA situation - you dominate someone 90% preflop and you go both go allin preflop. Does this mean that 9 out of the first 10 times you will win? No. It is absolutely and completely possible for you to lose even 10 times in a row in this scenario.

      Do the 90% mean that in 50000 encounters like this you will win 45000 times? Well not absolutely exactly but it's going to be damn close to 45000. maybe slightly more or slightly less but close enough to 45000 that you can conclude that the sample size is not big enough and thus the deviation.

      That's the reality of variation - it doesn't care for the previous outcome or for the next.

      To take it into a SnG or a MTT - you go allin as a shortstack with AA vs a bigstack that has you covered. You can win even 20 times in row in this situation or you can lose the first time and be done. Variance doesn't care if you've won or lost, variance just happens.

      As poker players the best we can do is hope to put the money in when we are favorites to win. The rest is up to variance. We just have to accept this and move on.