33 dollar DON on ipoker Bubble problem

    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      GAME #-1750823468: Texas Hold'em NL Tournament 2009-10-01 13:39:42
      Table "Turbo" $30 NLH Double Up, 348436361, 3024284021 (Tournament: "Turbo" $20 NLH Double Up Buy-In: $30+$3)
      Seat 1: SuperSeanE ($1,170.00 in chips)
      Seat 6: rouxy14 ($1,030.00 in chips)
      Seat 8: ukrarts ($1,590.00 in chips)
      Seat 10: SickAlek ($5,210.00 in chips) DEALER
      SuperSeanE: Post SB $150.00
      rouxy14: Post BB $300.00
      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to SuperSeanE [DK SK]
      ukrarts: Fold
      SickAlek: Raise (NF) $5,210.00
      SuperSeanE: Fold
      rouxy14: Fold
      *** SUMMARY ***
      Total pot $5,660.00 Rake $0.00
      SickAlek: wins $5,660.00


      What do you think? I always pass here and I have a 6% roi over 1000s of games. I play 9-12 tables and therefore I have set strategies to allow for me to be able to cope with all tables and maintina the same level of poker as I can achieve while playing say 2-3 tables.

      One of these strategies is that i never comit myself all in on the bubble if one stack is way shorter than mine. In this circumstance the bb who is the short stack is a player with a -roi of 12% according to my sharkscope HUD over 500 games. He does not understand bubble play and tends to move all in far to often in bad situations such as moving with 37 into a bb with the massive chip lead.

      I hate to call this all in and lose and bubble when I know that the shorter stack on the bb will have to do something before me and survive it before im commited.

      Further the all in mover is a dumb regualar who breaks even. I have notes on him that he moves with any stack in any position with any ace or any pair at all blind levels- wierd player but he range is very defined.

      What do you think?
  • 8 replies
    • whateverdude
      whateverdude
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      Looks like stone cold breakeven EV to me, cause your odds of winning the DoN if you fold are pretty much the same as your equity vs his range if you call (70-75%), and I personally always make the move in breakeven spots, cause you can forget about this table(u win=u can sitout ur way to the money) and open up a new one, and since you are a winning player, more tables=more money, so this fact makes the breakeven EV into +EV IMO.

      It's like in headsup SNGs, sometimes you get into a spot where you have 60% edge vs your opponent, when you believe you have more than 60% chances to beat him if you fold this hand, but the fact that you will start your next match after this hand makes it more profitable to take the smaller edge and NOT wait for a better spot.
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      I would push because even though you can wait for the shorty to bust if he doubles up you're in trouble. I think in these spots KK is a very difficult fold.

      Most of the time you will be comfortably ahead of a lower pair or Ax. If he has AA or sucks out then so be it but imo this can never be a -EV call unless we are top 4 with double the chips of the shorty.

      It's worth mentioning though, you're the winning player here lol I haven't comfortably got away from the $1.10's yet!
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Hi guys
      Thanks for the help.
      I feel that i need to be able to make these decisons with more confidence at the time. In retrospect I think I am happy folding here.
    • whateverdude
      whateverdude
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      Wurble look at it this way:
      vs a range of 22-AA, A2s+, A2o+ he has ~70% chance to win
      There are other 2 shorties on the table and 1 big stack, big stack wins 100%, and 2 of the 3 shorties win. So, if Hero HAS EQUAL SKILL with other 2 shorties he has 33% chance to bust IF HE FOLDS. When you take into consideration the fact that Hero has big edge vs one of them, and we don't know about the other(no info given in OP) we can safely assume Hero here has ~70% chance to get into the money if he folds.

      SuperSeanE you say you never commit yourself if there is 1 way shorter stack, but the other guy has just like 100 chips less than you, I wouldn't really call it "way shorter"
    • sk345di
      sk345di
      Global
      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 225
      I would call here. Because the shortie can easily double up or just steal the blinds once and get ahead of you. Also the blind level change can do this to you. I would fold if i was the guy with 1500 chips though.
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      This is a fold IMO.

      I'm guessing your something like a 70:30 favorite over his range. I've used an equity calculator to look at the hand and it says if you fold in this stop you have about $40 equity, if you call and win it climbs to $52 and if you call and loose 0 for bubbleing. Winning 12 to loose 40 means you have to be an 80% fovourite to call in this spot, which means only AA is good enough to call here.
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      yeah that seems to be the case. I defo call with aa here.
      Even though im always passing aa in DONS lol- seems wierd but im making money passing AA when the situation calls for it

      Just few minutes ago was at the 4 handed DON bubble had 4k and guy with 3.75k moved on sb into my bb- i quickly passed lol the other two stacks were so much shorter than us both around 0.6k
    • donroops
      donroops
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2009 Posts: 49
      Call. It's likely you're going to have to face a showdown anyway in this tourney. Maybe against the shorty.
      If you have to reads on the big stack, it's usually the case in my experience, when a big stack pushes, they have trash. To get such a big stack they probably are somewhat loose.
      Many a time when i've been very short and a big stack pushes, i've called with a wide range, going on the assumption they are pushing like 70%, and i have been correct the majority of the time. Could be a leak. It's only when i'm 1-2bb short when I do this though.
      yea..