33 dollar DON on ipoker Another Bubble problem

    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      GAME #-1750849873: Texas Hold'em NL Tournament 2009-10-01 13:18:52
      Table "Turbo" $30 NLH Double Up, 348430881, 3024248061 (Tournament: "Turbo" $30 NLH Double Up Buy-In: $30+$3)
      Seat 1: SuperSeanE ($1,180.00 in chips)
      Seat 3: magthebag ($1,020.00 in chips)
      Seat 6: KKwola ($4,500.00 in chips)
      Seat 8: FiveStarDelux ($2,300.00 in chips) DEALER
      SuperSeanE: Post SB $150.00
      magthebag: Post BB $300.00
      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to SuperSeanE [DJ S9]
      KKwola: Fold
      FiveStarDelux: Fold
      SuperSeanE: Fold
      *** SUMMARY ***
      Total pot $450.00 Rake $0.00
      magthebag: wins $450.00

      The first point i need to make is that i hanve no notes on the bb player. According to my sharkcope HUD he has played 5 games on ipoker so I cannot make any judgements from that.

      This problems happens all the time. If i pass and he calls im in a bad spot. If I pass and he walks the blinds then I become the short stack. However if I push all in and he passes I have a safe stack for the time being and he is in a bad spot- I feel there is some fold equity here if i push

      Further the other two players on the table are really bad players with -roi who relish trying to bubble someone with utter disregard for their stack. So I feel that this is the last hand that there is any fold equity.

      However I ended up folding. I won the DON as this player moved into the nutter on the next big blind who called with 45 and hit a straight.

      Please give me some feedback.
  • 8 replies
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      i'm calling.........
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      thanks for the really useful post...........Please no more single line answers with no substance.
    • whateverdude
      whateverdude
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      You say you have no notes and SC hud says nothing, what about his stats, I mean vpip pfr etc.

      If you believe he is a good player, then you can assume that he will assume that he is better than you, and will wait for better spot if he's with a bad hand=>you have decent enough fold equity to push.

      If it's more likely he is bad, then fold.
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      I would push here. There are no other reasons than those already stated in your original post - If you fold, he walks the blinds and you are the shorty plus you have the maniacs in your way just waiting to suck out on you at a later point.

      If you fold and become the shorty you only have to lose one more set of blinds to be in a position where pretty much the whole table will call you down just to end the tourney...

      As it happens folding worked out but without knowing that the BB is gonna call light I push every time.
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Thanks guys
      I think after some time dwelling it is a close decison. I think maybe I could have moved all in here. Im so used to relying on my pokertracker and sharkscope HUD for marginal decisions that i hate it when they dont help LOL.
    • sk345di
      sk345di
      Global
      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 225
      I think it's worth the gamble here. Push into him. If he folds great. If not you probably have a 60-40 situation which is far better then giving him free chips and making yourself the bubble target.
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      yeah thanks sk345di
      I think its close but all in seems a good choice
    • donroops
      donroops
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2009 Posts: 49
      I would also push here. Just can't pass here. Folding just leaves you in too bad a shape. Short vs short in a bubble blind battle, push everytime.

      On your point on relying on stats. I was using a had for the last month or so, then stopped(trial), and the difference isn't that huge as far as I can tell, when it comes to roi.
      The way I see it, yes you can identify the nits pretty easily, but when it comes to push or fold, people often make decisions which their stats would argue otherwise. I guess i'm generalising here. the nits will usually have predictable stats, so i guess it helps there. I've also found alot of the times i can sometimes pick ot a type of player by looking at their stack size and blind level.
      Maybe this is the sort of intuition people talk about.
      I dunno. maybe.