This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] NL 50 A8s resteal

    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      CO:
      $12.05
      Hero:
      $7.75

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 8:heart: , A:heart:
      4 folds, CO raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $7.75 (All-In), 2 folds, CO calls $6.50.

      Flop: ($16.25) 4:club: , A:diamond: , Q:spade:
      Turn: ($16.25) K:diamond:
      River: ($16.25) 4:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $16.25

      This feels so marginal but...
      The positional stats i had on him were:
      Fold LP open raise to resteal: 81%
      Raise from CO = 28%
      From the EV calculations i did, assuming that he continues with 5.5% of his range (19% of 28%) i am a 32% favourite to win pot if i am called.

      So EV = EV(V) - EV(D)
      = 0.81*2 + 0.19*8.5*0.321 - 0.19*7.75*0.678 = +1,16$
  • 10 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      A8s is just slightly loose in this spot, since you are on the BU and it's a CO steal. If the blinds were tight and not too aggressive, then it's pretty alright imo. A few things can make the situation better for your re-steal:

      1- Your smaller stack (you risk less money when he calls you).
      2 - Tight blinds which are not likely to get aggressive on this spot. Co will be stealing much looser against tight blinds, whereas you can expect him to be raising with a tighter range if the blinds are loose players.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i would resteal here if the blinds were tight and
      his fold to cbet is > 50%, just makes it that little bit less risky.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      his fold to cbet is > 50%, just makes it that little bit less risky.
      ?( This is irrelevant since you MUST shove as a resteal preflop

      If you know the dynamics of the hand (Did CO steal alot previous blinds etc.etc.)
      it could help a little bit more

      I think your resteal is fine given the massive FEQ you have so it is automatically +EV for you :)

      If he calls, you at least 30%+FlushEquity :D

      - Gerv
    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      Thanks guys for the advice...
      Ill be sure to double check the aggresiveness of the players behind me before i make a marginal resteal :)
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      why must he shove to resteal preflop? a 3 bet is a better option imho, the villan will only call both a preflop 3bet and a push with a better hand considering his stats.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      why must he shove to resteal preflop? a 3 bet is a better option imho, the villan will only call both a preflop 3bet and a push with a better hand considering his stats.
      WE shove when re-stealing (~20BB and less). He decides to call/fold. So since WE are AI on the flop WE cant make the cbet.. C ;) :D

      How the blinds react is between blinds and CO.

      Greetz,

      Tampa
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i only shove preflop to resteal when it makes good sense. In this particular situation against an opponent with stats like this villan, a 3 bet is a better option imho.
      the villan folds 81% to a resteal which means he only calls a 3bet with very very strong hands which are always ahead of A8. in fact A8 is dominated hard by all better aces, so its a really bad hand to be holding if he calls your shove.
      i would 3 bet him and fold to a 4bet to save myself 1/2 a stack. if he calls the 3 bet and has a high fold to conti bet u still can take the pot with a conti bet sometimes.
      overall tho, if u 3 bet him rather than shove preflop, u can save 1/2 a stack if he holds a better hand. i would go as far as to say that shoving to resteal against a villan like this is a leak.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      I agree with Ishindar a lot here. The A8 can be dominated a lot. You must also calculate that around 6-7% of the times the blind will wake up with a monster, which is even more trouble for a hand like A8. You also need to discount rake when called which will decrease your equity. Your smaller stack and position, could also make villain call with a little looser range and if he does it with AT/AJ or 77/99, your equity remain very bad.

      After that is also very blinds dependant, because his range can't be that easy to calculate by his stats alone. I believe it could be closer to 60-70% if the blinds are very tight and as little as 14-15% if they are loose. This changes your EV by quite a lot based on the situation.

      For me this hand is a fold, unless I have a good samplesize on opponent, blinds and possibly even some other tells and even then it remains a high variance situation.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You simply cannot 3bet/fold as SS especially not with a small stack mathematical wise:

      OTB: 100bb Villain
      SB: 100bb unknown
      BB: You 15bb (i) /20bb (ii):

      50NL thus maximum rake %
      OTB raises to 2.5bb / 3bb , SB folds (0.5), BB 3bets to 7bb (8bb / 13bb)

      There can be 3 things:
      OTB shoves (all-in)
      OTB calls
      OTB folds

      OTB shoves:
      BEQ is (i) 15bb+2.75bb+0.5bb+7bb*0.95 = 24bb versus your 8bb, meaning you have to get 25% in order to be BE against a range

      Even if his callingrange is QQ+,AK, you have 28% so in my opinion it is a leak to 3bet/fold with a 15bb stack. Especially because of the added value you get in case he folds. When he calls, will you then c/f or shove postflop?
      If it is the latter; won't you rather want to see five cards immediately? Imagine the ''I got AK and I miss but I am still committed postflop-feeling''

      When you have a 20bb stack, your BEQ is 20bb+2.75bb+0.5bb+8bb*0.95 = 29bb versus our 12bb remaining stack giving us a required BEQ of 29%

      Now you can fold to a shove when you exactly know his call/shove/4betrange is QQ+,AK+ but ofcourse there are frequencies of bluffing, looser range & incomplete information which changes the equation instantly from a slight -EV situation to a solid +EV situation.

      You gain some FE by 3betting small but generating more FE by shoving makes you 1) invulnerable for bluff frequencies & 2) There ain't a call option to see a flop for Villain

      As pointed out here 03/05 SSS Adv. Coaching - resteals against small stealraises


      In order to incorporate the 3bet/fold move to be called +EV based on dynamics and not on math requires a radical change in your resteal repertoire:
      Instead of value restealing (long term EV), one must incorporate a solid postflop skill when 3betting small in case villain calls. Furthermore Hero must incorporate a sense of bluffing frequency thus a small resteal with a pure bluffhand like 7:d2



      One thing to note is that precise information as in Stats per position (BU/CO/Hijack) instead of an average number is far more accurate. Ofcourse a solid sample size requirement must be met in order to proof its accuracy


      - Gerv
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i cant argue with your maths gerv and thanks for taking the time to analise :)

      in my experience a preflop 3bet has pretty much the same Fold equity as a SS shove preflop at this particular level. if a SS player calls a 3be, he is pretty much pot comitted.

      I would consider 3 betting or shoving preflop with A8 pretty much a bluff that should be folded against strong resistance from a tight player with 81% fold to 3bet!
      3 betting gives us more info on the strength of the hand the villan is holding.

      i guess maths wise it also works to go all in prefolp here but I feel it just has a better balance to your game if u 3bet instead and maybe has less variance.

      personally i make a lot of profit from light 3 betting tags with a steal of >40% a fold to 3 bet of >70% and a fold to cbet of >50.