[NL2-NL10] NL 50 A8s resteal

    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      CO:
      $12.05
      Hero:
      $7.75

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 8:heart: , A:heart:
      4 folds, CO raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $7.75 (All-In), 2 folds, CO calls $6.50.

      Flop: ($16.25) 4:club: , A:diamond: , Q:spade:
      Turn: ($16.25) K:diamond:
      River: ($16.25) 4:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $16.25

      This feels so marginal but...
      The positional stats i had on him were:
      Fold LP open raise to resteal: 81%
      Raise from CO = 28%
      From the EV calculations i did, assuming that he continues with 5.5% of his range (19% of 28%) i am a 32% favourite to win pot if i am called.

      So EV = EV(V) - EV(D)
      = 0.81*2 + 0.19*8.5*0.321 - 0.19*7.75*0.678 = +1,16$
  • 10 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      A8s is just slightly loose in this spot, since you are on the BU and it's a CO steal. If the blinds were tight and not too aggressive, then it's pretty alright imo. A few things can make the situation better for your re-steal:

      1- Your smaller stack (you risk less money when he calls you).
      2 - Tight blinds which are not likely to get aggressive on this spot. Co will be stealing much looser against tight blinds, whereas you can expect him to be raising with a tighter range if the blinds are loose players.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i would resteal here if the blinds were tight and
      his fold to cbet is > 50%, just makes it that little bit less risky.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      his fold to cbet is > 50%, just makes it that little bit less risky.
      ?( This is irrelevant since you MUST shove as a resteal preflop

      If you know the dynamics of the hand (Did CO steal alot previous blinds etc.etc.)
      it could help a little bit more

      I think your resteal is fine given the massive FEQ you have so it is automatically +EV for you :)

      If he calls, you at least 30%+FlushEquity :D

      - Gerv
    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      Thanks guys for the advice...
      Ill be sure to double check the aggresiveness of the players behind me before i make a marginal resteal :)
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      why must he shove to resteal preflop? a 3 bet is a better option imho, the villan will only call both a preflop 3bet and a push with a better hand considering his stats.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      why must he shove to resteal preflop? a 3 bet is a better option imho, the villan will only call both a preflop 3bet and a push with a better hand considering his stats.
      WE shove when re-stealing (~20BB and less). He decides to call/fold. So since WE are AI on the flop WE cant make the cbet.. C ;) :D

      How the blinds react is between blinds and CO.

      Greetz,

      Tampa
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i only shove preflop to resteal when it makes good sense. In this particular situation against an opponent with stats like this villan, a 3 bet is a better option imho.
      the villan folds 81% to a resteal which means he only calls a 3bet with very very strong hands which are always ahead of A8. in fact A8 is dominated hard by all better aces, so its a really bad hand to be holding if he calls your shove.
      i would 3 bet him and fold to a 4bet to save myself 1/2 a stack. if he calls the 3 bet and has a high fold to conti bet u still can take the pot with a conti bet sometimes.
      overall tho, if u 3 bet him rather than shove preflop, u can save 1/2 a stack if he holds a better hand. i would go as far as to say that shoving to resteal against a villan like this is a leak.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      I agree with Ishindar a lot here. The A8 can be dominated a lot. You must also calculate that around 6-7% of the times the blind will wake up with a monster, which is even more trouble for a hand like A8. You also need to discount rake when called which will decrease your equity. Your smaller stack and position, could also make villain call with a little looser range and if he does it with AT/AJ or 77/99, your equity remain very bad.

      After that is also very blinds dependant, because his range can't be that easy to calculate by his stats alone. I believe it could be closer to 60-70% if the blinds are very tight and as little as 14-15% if they are loose. This changes your EV by quite a lot based on the situation.

      For me this hand is a fold, unless I have a good samplesize on opponent, blinds and possibly even some other tells and even then it remains a high variance situation.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You simply cannot 3bet/fold as SS especially not with a small stack mathematical wise:

      OTB: 100bb Villain
      SB: 100bb unknown
      BB: You 15bb (i) /20bb (ii):

      50NL thus maximum rake %
      OTB raises to 2.5bb / 3bb , SB folds (0.5), BB 3bets to 7bb (8bb / 13bb)

      There can be 3 things:
      OTB shoves (all-in)
      OTB calls
      OTB folds

      OTB shoves:
      BEQ is (i) 15bb+2.75bb+0.5bb+7bb*0.95 = 24bb versus your 8bb, meaning you have to get 25% in order to be BE against a range

      Even if his callingrange is QQ+,AK, you have 28% so in my opinion it is a leak to 3bet/fold with a 15bb stack. Especially because of the added value you get in case he folds. When he calls, will you then c/f or shove postflop?
      If it is the latter; won't you rather want to see five cards immediately? Imagine the ''I got AK and I miss but I am still committed postflop-feeling''

      When you have a 20bb stack, your BEQ is 20bb+2.75bb+0.5bb+8bb*0.95 = 29bb versus our 12bb remaining stack giving us a required BEQ of 29%

      Now you can fold to a shove when you exactly know his call/shove/4betrange is QQ+,AK+ but ofcourse there are frequencies of bluffing, looser range & incomplete information which changes the equation instantly from a slight -EV situation to a solid +EV situation.

      You gain some FE by 3betting small but generating more FE by shoving makes you 1) invulnerable for bluff frequencies & 2) There ain't a call option to see a flop for Villain

      As pointed out here 03/05 SSS Adv. Coaching - resteals against small stealraises


      In order to incorporate the 3bet/fold move to be called +EV based on dynamics and not on math requires a radical change in your resteal repertoire:
      Instead of value restealing (long term EV), one must incorporate a solid postflop skill when 3betting small in case villain calls. Furthermore Hero must incorporate a sense of bluffing frequency thus a small resteal with a pure bluffhand like 7:d2



      One thing to note is that precise information as in Stats per position (BU/CO/Hijack) instead of an average number is far more accurate. Ofcourse a solid sample size requirement must be met in order to proof its accuracy


      - Gerv
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i cant argue with your maths gerv and thanks for taking the time to analise :)

      in my experience a preflop 3bet has pretty much the same Fold equity as a SS shove preflop at this particular level. if a SS player calls a 3be, he is pretty much pot comitted.

      I would consider 3 betting or shoving preflop with A8 pretty much a bluff that should be folded against strong resistance from a tight player with 81% fold to 3bet!
      3 betting gives us more info on the strength of the hand the villan is holding.

      i guess maths wise it also works to go all in prefolp here but I feel it just has a better balance to your game if u 3bet instead and maybe has less variance.

      personally i make a lot of profit from light 3 betting tags with a steal of >40% a fold to 3 bet of >70% and a fold to cbet of >50.