[NL2-NL10] equity in AQo preflop push

    • slowshow
      slowshow
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2009 Posts: 99
      Pot @ preflop was 3 x 2$, i felt that my AQo equity is greater than 25%, so i shoved.

      HUD readings where:
      MP1, CO: ~80% VPIP fish
      UTG+2: 19 VPIP, but high PFR%

      Wrong, right? :f_confused:

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.20)
      BB ($3.15)
      UTG ($17.63)
      Hero ($1.85)
      UTG+2 ($10.89)
      MP1 ($4.04)
      CO ($13.43)
      BTN ($9.83)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: A:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.50, UTG+2 raises to $2, MP1 calls $2, fold, BTN calls $2, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.35 (AI)

      FLOP ($8) 9:club: A:spade: T:diamond:

      UTG+2 bets $5, MP1 calls $2.04 (AI), BTN folds

      TURN ($12.08) 9:club: A:spade: T:diamond: 8:spade:

      RIVER ($12.08) 9:club: A:spade: T:diamond: 8:spade: 8:club:
  • 8 replies
    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      In my oppinion this is a badly played hand.
      Firstly you are raising AQo and making it 5BB which commits you to the pot as you have only 13.5BB remaining. So uve basically limited your options and now the only thing your 5BB opening raise is earning you fold equity which 4-3BB woulda done anyways. If the fish raised you allin you can most certainly call but vs 2 guys it is a fold.

      Anyways reduce your openraises to 4BB and stick to the starting hands chart which says AQ is a fold vs a raise.

      Hope this helps
      Regards,
      Bron
    • slowshow
      slowshow
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2009 Posts: 99
      Yea, 5BB open rise was a typo, caused by multitabling, i usually do 4BB. The main idea here is: i have 1/4 share of pot here, so my equity should be bigger than 25% to be profitable. Your point, if i understand correctly, is that 2 or more active villains make this equity smaller, so its actually less than 25%?
      But then again, if there where like 1 player against me, even fishy one, then equity should be bigger than 50% to be profitable. :f_confused:
    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      Ok, lemme quickly explain how to calculate equity.
      Lets say youre up against 1 player. You raise to 4BB with a 20BB stack.
      The other player goes allin.
      The way you calculate your break even equity is you take the amount of money you stand to win....in this case it is 20BB + 1.5 for the blinds = 21.5BB
      Then you look at the amount you need to invest to win this pot. Which would be 16BB

      So your pot ods are 21.5:16 or 1.34:1
      TO work out the % which you are referring to you simply build the reciprocal value of the pot ods....which would be 1/(1+1.34) = 0.427
      So you need an equity of 42.7% to call if you wish to break even. This is witout rake.

      Ok now comes step 2... putting the villian on a range and calculating your equity vs that range. To do this you use equilator found in strategy->pokertools

      Anyways lets give the fish a reraise allin range:
      Any pocket pair
      KQo and KQs
      ATs+
      AJo+
      Against this tight range for a fish you have 47% equity and it would be a marginally profitable call.

      Unfortunately the TaG entered the pot and his reraise range is much tighter which simply roflpawns ur AQ.
      Give him a range of JJ+ and AKo and AKs and use the method of calculating equity to see if this is a profitable play versus his range.

      Regards,
      Bron
    • slowshow
      slowshow
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2009 Posts: 99
      Wow, this is cool explanation :f_biggrin:

      I guess it will take me a bit time to fully understand how to use this in practice, however ill put this thread in favorites

      Thanx man! :)
    • slowshow
      slowshow
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2009 Posts: 99
      Ok, ill try to do Your shown calculations.

      Here goes output from Equilator(~500m games analyzed):

      Player 1: 25,224% 23,905% 2,821% 73,274% AhQc
      Player 2: 37,156% 36,866% 0,764% 62,370% JJ+, AKs, AKo
      Player 3: 15,801% 15,703% 0,380% 83,917% 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo
      Player 4: 21,819% 20,295% 3,231% 76,474% 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo

      (hope i did enter ranges more or less correctly)

      My equity jumps around 25% here with AhQc.

      So, lets calculate my pot odds as played:

      So those guys throw in 3 x 2 $ + blinds, so its like 61.5 big blinds. I must throw in 13,5 big blinds, to play the game.

      61.5:13,5 -> 4,5:1 -> 1/(1+4,5) -> ~18%

      And ~25% > 18%, so does it mean i played it ok after all? :f_confused: Or i guess i did make a mistake somewhere ... :f_p:

      Anyways this ir first time i go so deep in putting these all peaces in one big detailed calculation(not approx)! Cool!
    • Bronscapade
      Bronscapade
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2009 Posts: 50
      In this scenario you were right to go allin yes...but thats only because you opened for 5 BB and that you are playing versus some very fishy customers. After 2 players have gone allin the 3rd will usually only enter with QQ+. On NL10 however thats not the case :)

      Anyways try sticking to the 4bb raise preflop and as a general rule of thumb dont ship it with AQo preflop unless ur in a smallblind versus bigblind battle or versus a complete fish.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      If UTG+1's PFR (please be more specific) gives you a profile of TAG on UTG+1 then I muck it since his 3bet range versus your UTG range has your AQo crushed by default.

      Adding on top some random hands of other players who might suck out on you thus leech a 5% equity from you etc.etc.


      - Gerv
    • slowshow
      slowshow
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2009 Posts: 99
      Thanx guys for useful advice!

      I guess my next stuff to do is looking deeper into proper range detection.

      :f_biggrin: