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[NL20-NL50] NL50: two pair river decision

    • Zeffke
      Joined: 17.04.2007 Posts: 1,123
      $0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($66.30)
      Hero ($50.45)
      BTN ($74.65) 21/19/5.5 over 400 hands, wtsd=30, w$sd=65
      SB ($42.65)
      BB ($50)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is CO A:diamond: 4:diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $2, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

      Flop: A:club: 10:club: 4:spade: ($4.75, 2 players)
      Hero bets $3.25, BTN calls $3.25

      Turn: 5:club: ($11.25, 2 players)
      Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

      River: 9:spade: ($25.25, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $19.10, Hero folds

      Final Pot: $44.35

      BTN wins $43.15 ( won +$11.80 )

      Hero lost -$12.25

      So I decided to check/call a bet because he is aggressive but I did this some hands ago as well and then he made a half pot bet and now he bets significant higher. So I'm not sure if he's thinking "let's try to bet bigger to get him to fold this time" or that he really has it.
      In retrospective I prefer making a blockbet of something like $10.
  • 3 replies
    • xnyk
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 29
      I my opinion, the blocking bet is good with the history you described. I believe bet/fold river is good and also check/fold as you did is good for this bet size, but consider me as weak TAG :-)

      Also, I do not believe he has a set on flop, he would reraise it most probably and if you are saying he is aggressive, he would probably reraise AJ+ preflop also. What can he has then?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I'm really skeptical on what this guy can have there given how aggressive he is. He should raise most flushdraws/sets/AT on the flop, i don't think he peels 55 on that flop, T9 is a fold on the turn (and even then i don't think he would pot the river with it) and 99 is a stretch, unless maybe he has the 9c. So i guess the only question is whether he is a "reverse" player or not, meaning betting/raising all the time with air and then suddenly slowplays every good hand. I think i'd call one time in that spot to see what he's doing, especially if i don't plan on leaving since he has position on us all the time.

      I think betting the river outright will get us into even trickier, spots as most tags won't call a third bet on the river with a worse hand once the turn doesn't slow you down, so i'd rather commit to check/calling to give him more of a chance to make a mistake. You could have check/called both the turn and the river too since it's a good spot for very aggressive guys to try and take you off Ax, especially if you think he'd raise a draw on the flop.

      Hope it helps.
    • Alan883
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      As he played the flop and if he was on draw he made -0,4 EV with 7USD implied odds already calculated so i think taht tells us a lot....

      nice hand.