[NL20-NL50] Top2 vs overshove turn

    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BB:
      $30.50
      UTG2:
      $19.10
      MP1:
      $8.50
      MP2:
      $29.90
      MP3:
      $18.65
      CO(Hero):
      $25.70
      BU:
      $25.10
      SB:
      $13.25


      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, A.
      3 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, MP3 calls $1.00.

      Flop: ($2.85) A, 8, J (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.90, MP3 calls $1.90.

      Turn: ($6.65) Q (2 players)
      MP3 bets $15.50, Hero calls $15.50.

      River: ($37.65) J (0 players)
      Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $22.15.


      I usually tend to fold really weak against this kind of overshoves - only the fishiest of aggro fish overshove with weak hands - but in this case, I don't really see myself getting away from top two-pair. There is a couple of reasons:

      1. So far, the only significant stats I could collect was a VPIP of over 60, but he seemed to play somewhat like the "busto and gone after 20 hands" type who just gets his money in asap.

      2. Together with the previous read, I see him do this overshove move with a lot of hands I'm ahead against, for instance a flush draw who pairs on the turn, a pair who gets a flush draw on the turn, same with a gutshot in both cases, a weaker two-pair on the turn (or flop). Of course, KT and 88 have me beat, but can I really narrow his range down that much in this spot?

      3. I was rather active on the table and there had already been a couple of hands where people started to play back at me only to fold to further aggression from my side. This might have been some kind of "I put it in so you can't bluff me out" move.


      So the issue here is: most of the times, overshoves are really limited to monsters who try to make it look like a bluff and want to get maximum value from your hits - can I make an exception here and call?
  • 4 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Against a strong range -

      AJ, AQ, JQ, 88, KhTh, KsTs, 9T: 59.029%
      AcQh: 40.971%

      Almost callable. With your reads about him overshoving FD + pair type things, I think you have to call.
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      with your reads I'd call, too with top two.
      My guess is a backdoorflushdraw with one J, maybe JTs.
      Am I right?

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Hello.

      The issue in this hand is that the play by Villain usually indicates a monster and a monster only (KT/88) - under normal circumstances, I wouldn't put any other hands in his range.

      It doesn't really matter which hand he actually had, as those monsters are always part of his range. I'm just wondering if you can EVER call such an overshove with a "mere" top two-pair.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      don´ think he has there set a lot of times, mostly he can hold T9, you beat all the other two pair hands, so imo it is easy call
      nh