Can u fold AA pre-flop in a 9 player SnG?

    • rudidso
      rudidso
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2009 Posts: 27
      Hey guys,
      I was having a conversation with a friend as usual about poker and an interesting topic came off?
      It goes like this:
      Can u fold AA preflop if u r last to act and 8 players have all gone all-in preflop before u?

      Now I know that the strenght of AA diminishes significantly when u play against more players but i was wondering if some of the math experts here can run a simulation of lets say 100 hands where AA goes up against 8 random hands prefop to see what the results might be.

      Cheers,
      Rudi
  • 29 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      in b4 +EV comic about folding AA preflop
    • harleytopper
      harleytopper
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.09.2007 Posts: 680
      Depends on stacks. If it is first hand and stacks are same you have big chance to get second place without risk...
    • marvinas
      marvinas
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.04.2009 Posts: 70
      Don't have exact numbers, still I believe you would be massive favourite (maybe 30 - 35%), all others being ~8%. Personally my decision would depend on other, strategical factors (stack sizes, prize distribution etc)
    • zhenzhenZHEN
      zhenzhenZHEN
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2009 Posts: 190
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 34.645% 34.43% 00.22% 3235273 20329.00 { AA }
      Hand 1: 08.164% 07.40% 00.76% 695500 71663.58 { random }
      Hand 2: 08.166% 07.41% 00.76% 695947 71426.83 { random }
      Hand 3: 08.169% 07.41% 00.76% 695910 71772.33 { random }
      Hand 4: 08.175% 07.41% 00.77% 696286 71937.42 { random }
      Hand 5: 08.169% 07.41% 00.76% 696007 71609.08 { random }
      Hand 6: 08.161% 07.40% 00.76% 695291 71591.83 { random }
      Hand 7: 08.186% 07.42% 00.76% 697613 71669.08 { random }
      Hand 8: 08.164% 07.40% 00.76% 695686 71468.83 { random }

      dont fold! xD

      just say its the first hand of a 9 player sng, 8 ppl go allin

      12000 chips in the pot

      and u risk 1500 to win 12000
      and 34% of the pot can be said to be yours which would be ~5100 chips

      but eh i would probably fold actually, would be like guaranteed 2nd place but no shot at 1st..hmm which to take lol
    • Arthibald1
      Arthibald1
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2009 Posts: 29
      I would fold if in the above situation, and in a double up tourney! Almost guaranteed to double.
      In every other tourney maybe a call. You aren't actually guaranteed 2nd place. Two or more players could tie, the board could be a monster! Then you'd be shorty in third or less.
      Most prize pools the top prize is about 3x the second prize, so taking the above into consideration, it maybe worth the risk!
      Although if you do get heads up aqainst someone who sucks out, you may have to question their poker skills! So 1500 against 12000 isnt a complete no hope against such a player.
      I think its probably even-ish.

      I'd call just for comedy value! How often are you gonna be every one all in 1st hand, with a very good chance of winning? I couldn't let it go!
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      would you fold the nuts?
    • Arthibald1
      Arthibald1
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2009 Posts: 29
      I'd fold your nuts!
    • LgWz
      LgWz
      Black
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 7,641
      If everyone has equal stacks and everyone shoves, you should fold aces. You get 2nd place almost 100% of the time, for 30% of prize pool, while by calling you get first only about 35% of the time for 50% of the prize pool.

      By the way: if everyone shoves equal stacks and one guy wins the hand, who gets 2nd and 3rd? I guess it has something to do with the positions on the table?
    • Irooz
      Irooz
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 690
      .
    • degre
      degre
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.04.2009 Posts: 413
      No question. I'll fold and get my 2nd place, I can still play for the 1st even if has the advantage of the huge stack.

      We always says that poker is a game of skill and not of luck, so why would you risk an awesome opportunity to surf the luck?
    • Justin37
      Justin37
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2009 Posts: 445
      Fold,

      i wanna a guarantee prize,
      coming 2nd or 3rd is a guarantee $$$.

      Unless u have so much money
      that u willin to lose your buy-in for FUN.
    • sirilidion
      sirilidion
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 1,575
      defanatly an fold in a normal SnG and an DoN and definatly a call in a cash game and an mtt. This comes though that cEV $EV are not the same in a SnG. in mtt this is also not the same but you're much farther away from the money and you need to acumulate chips to get there and this is an great spot to do so since you're definatly ahead of everybody else.
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
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      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      fold and go heads up with guaranteed 2nd place money :)
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
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      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Originally posted by sirilidion
      defanatly an fold in a normal SnG and an DoN and definatly a call in a cash game and an mtt. This comes though that cEV $EV are not the same in a SnG. in mtt this is also not the same but you're much farther away from the money and you need to acumulate chips to get there and this is an great spot to do so since you're definatly ahead of everybody else.
      This :)

      Although I think factors such as chip stacks (are they 100% identical or do we e.g. have 1 chip more than everyone else / 1 chip less than everyone else) and the factors deciding payout for 2nd/3rd might also have an influence.

      From a theoretic point of view its all about cEV (chip EV) and $EV which are not the same. So even if you are favourite to win terms of chip EV the move is even more +EV in terms of $EV.

      For anyone who wants to play around with the calculations just take e.g. a simple $55+5 SNG

      1. $247.50
      2. $148.50
      3. $99

      If you call you have a 35% of winning $247 (so $EV 86.45 plus whatever EV expectations you might have for 2nd or 3rd payouts)

      If you fold you have a lets say 97% chance of winning $148.50 (there is always the chance of the board splitting the pot or there being e.g. 2 people with the same hand winning). That would be a $EV of $143.56. Additionally the match isn't really over at this point in time since we still have low blinds and the minuscule chance of coming back to win the HU.

      As you see even though you have a decent cEV edge with the call example - your $EV is still lower than the $EV of folding :)



      In a cash game or MTT I'd never fold here though :s_o:
    • pootsman
      pootsman
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.08.2009 Posts: 19
      Ehh, clear fold in a normal 9 player sng. It probably doesn't happen very often and it's an easy way to get into the money with no effort at all. If it happens often then you can probably beat the remaining 1-2 donks anyway. No point in risking your money in the first hand.
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      I'd fold and I think you'd be still in an ok position to compete for first. Ok the other player has a massive chip lead but the blinds are still 10/20 and your 75BB deep.
    • bertstoelen
      bertstoelen
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 3
      always call.

      you're last to act preflop, so this means you are in the BB. If the stacks are equal, you have obv have 30% chance that you win the whole damn thing. If you lose, no worries, cause you're in the BB, you're second best to the button thus that means you will probably get third prize. And if the SB wins, you get second prize. Same goes for when you're the SB. When you are the UTG or UTG+1, you probably already stuck it in before you knew everyone was gonna go all in. So I'd say you only fold aces preflop when you're on the button or the CO, everyone has gone all in and your stacks are equal.

      thoughts?
    • bertstoelen
      bertstoelen
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2009 Posts: 3
      Originally posted by bertstoelen
      you have obv have 30% chance
      lolz that ain't right
    • Arthibald1
      Arthibald1
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.10.2009 Posts: 29
      Originally posted by Arthibald1
      I would fold if in the above situation, and in a double up tourney! Almost guaranteed to double.
      In every other tourney maybe a call. You aren't actually guaranteed 2nd place. Two or more players could tie, the board could be a monster! Then you'd be shorty in third or less.
      Most prize pools the top prize is about 3x the second prize, so taking the above into consideration, it maybe worth the risk!
      Although if you do get heads up aqainst someone who sucks out, you may have to question their poker skills! So 1500 against 12000 isnt a complete no hope against such a player.
      I think its probably even-ish.

      I'd call just for comedy value! How often are you gonna be every one all in 1st hand, with a very good chance of winning? I couldn't let it go!
      I have completely changed my mind! FOLD in the SNG! The first prize 3x the second prize thing is bollocks, I was thinking of 6 seaters!
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