# Can u fold AA pre-flop in a 9 player SnG?

• Bronze
Joined: 15.07.2009
Hey guys,
I was having a conversation with a friend as usual about poker and an interesting topic came off?
It goes like this:
Can u fold AA preflop if u r last to act and 8 players have all gone all-in preflop before u?

Now I know that the strenght of AA diminishes significantly when u play against more players but i was wondering if some of the math experts here can run a simulation of lets say 100 hands where AA goes up against 8 random hands prefop to see what the results might be.

Cheers,
Rudi
• 29 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 25.10.2008
in b4 +EV comic about folding AA preflop
• Bronze
Joined: 28.09.2007
Depends on stacks. If it is first hand and stacks are same you have big chance to get second place without risk...
• Bronze
Joined: 23.04.2009
Don't have exact numbers, still I believe you would be massive favourite (maybe 30 - 35%), all others being ~8%. Personally my decision would depend on other, strategical factors (stack sizes, prize distribution etc)
• Bronze
Joined: 26.04.2009
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.645% 34.43% 00.22% 3235273 20329.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 08.164% 07.40% 00.76% 695500 71663.58 { random }
Hand 2: 08.166% 07.41% 00.76% 695947 71426.83 { random }
Hand 3: 08.169% 07.41% 00.76% 695910 71772.33 { random }
Hand 4: 08.175% 07.41% 00.77% 696286 71937.42 { random }
Hand 5: 08.169% 07.41% 00.76% 696007 71609.08 { random }
Hand 6: 08.161% 07.40% 00.76% 695291 71591.83 { random }
Hand 7: 08.186% 07.42% 00.76% 697613 71669.08 { random }
Hand 8: 08.164% 07.40% 00.76% 695686 71468.83 { random }

dont fold!

just say its the first hand of a 9 player sng, 8 ppl go allin

12000 chips in the pot

and u risk 1500 to win 12000
and 34% of the pot can be said to be yours which would be ~5100 chips

but eh i would probably fold actually, would be like guaranteed 2nd place but no shot at 1st..hmm which to take lol
• Bronze
Joined: 02.10.2009
I would fold if in the above situation, and in a double up tourney! Almost guaranteed to double.
In every other tourney maybe a call. You aren't actually guaranteed 2nd place. Two or more players could tie, the board could be a monster! Then you'd be shorty in third or less.
Most prize pools the top prize is about 3x the second prize, so taking the above into consideration, it maybe worth the risk!
Although if you do get heads up aqainst someone who sucks out, you may have to question their poker skills! So 1500 against 12000 isnt a complete no hope against such a player.
I think its probably even-ish.

I'd call just for comedy value! How often are you gonna be every one all in 1st hand, with a very good chance of winning? I couldn't let it go!
• Bronze
Joined: 03.09.2008
would you fold the nuts?
• Bronze
Joined: 02.10.2009
• Black
Joined: 26.05.2007
If everyone has equal stacks and everyone shoves, you should fold aces. You get 2nd place almost 100% of the time, for 30% of prize pool, while by calling you get first only about 35% of the time for 50% of the prize pool.

By the way: if everyone shoves equal stacks and one guy wins the hand, who gets 2nd and 3rd? I guess it has something to do with the positions on the table?
• Bronze
Joined: 05.04.2009
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• Bronze
Joined: 30.04.2009
No question. I'll fold and get my 2nd place, I can still play for the 1st even if has the advantage of the huge stack.

We always says that poker is a game of skill and not of luck, so why would you risk an awesome opportunity to surf the luck?
• Bronze
Joined: 25.07.2009
Fold,

i wanna a guarantee prize,
coming 2nd or 3rd is a guarantee \$\$\$.

Unless u have so much money
• Bronze
Joined: 15.04.2008
defanatly an fold in a normal SnG and an DoN and definatly a call in a cash game and an mtt. This comes though that cEV \$EV are not the same in a SnG. in mtt this is also not the same but you're much farther away from the money and you need to acumulate chips to get there and this is an great spot to do so since you're definatly ahead of everybody else.
• Bronze
Joined: 30.06.2009
fold and go heads up with guaranteed 2nd place money
• Bronze
Joined: 20.02.2008
Originally posted by sirilidion
defanatly an fold in a normal SnG and an DoN and definatly a call in a cash game and an mtt. This comes though that cEV \$EV are not the same in a SnG. in mtt this is also not the same but you're much farther away from the money and you need to acumulate chips to get there and this is an great spot to do so since you're definatly ahead of everybody else.
This

Although I think factors such as chip stacks (are they 100% identical or do we e.g. have 1 chip more than everyone else / 1 chip less than everyone else) and the factors deciding payout for 2nd/3rd might also have an influence.

From a theoretic point of view its all about cEV (chip EV) and \$EV which are not the same. So even if you are favourite to win terms of chip EV the move is even more +EV in terms of \$EV.

For anyone who wants to play around with the calculations just take e.g. a simple \$55+5 SNG

1. \$247.50
2. \$148.50
3. \$99

If you call you have a 35% of winning \$247 (so \$EV 86.45 plus whatever EV expectations you might have for 2nd or 3rd payouts)

If you fold you have a lets say 97% chance of winning \$148.50 (there is always the chance of the board splitting the pot or there being e.g. 2 people with the same hand winning). That would be a \$EV of \$143.56. Additionally the match isn't really over at this point in time since we still have low blinds and the minuscule chance of coming back to win the HU.

As you see even though you have a decent cEV edge with the call example - your \$EV is still lower than the \$EV of folding

In a cash game or MTT I'd never fold here though
• Bronze
Joined: 06.08.2009
Ehh, clear fold in a normal 9 player sng. It probably doesn't happen very often and it's an easy way to get into the money with no effort at all. If it happens often then you can probably beat the remaining 1-2 donks anyway. No point in risking your money in the first hand.
• Bronze
Joined: 14.12.2008
I'd fold and I think you'd be still in an ok position to compete for first. Ok the other player has a massive chip lead but the blinds are still 10/20 and your 75BB deep.
• Bronze
Joined: 23.05.2009
always call.

you're last to act preflop, so this means you are in the BB. If the stacks are equal, you have obv have 30% chance that you win the whole damn thing. If you lose, no worries, cause you're in the BB, you're second best to the button thus that means you will probably get third prize. And if the SB wins, you get second prize. Same goes for when you're the SB. When you are the UTG or UTG+1, you probably already stuck it in before you knew everyone was gonna go all in. So I'd say you only fold aces preflop when you're on the button or the CO, everyone has gone all in and your stacks are equal.

thoughts?
• Bronze
Joined: 23.05.2009
Originally posted by bertstoelen
you have obv have 30% chance
lolz that ain't right
• Bronze
Joined: 02.10.2009
Originally posted by Arthibald1
I would fold if in the above situation, and in a double up tourney! Almost guaranteed to double.
In every other tourney maybe a call. You aren't actually guaranteed 2nd place. Two or more players could tie, the board could be a monster! Then you'd be shorty in third or less.
Most prize pools the top prize is about 3x the second prize, so taking the above into consideration, it maybe worth the risk!
Although if you do get heads up aqainst someone who sucks out, you may have to question their poker skills! So 1500 against 12000 isnt a complete no hope against such a player.
I think its probably even-ish.

I'd call just for comedy value! How often are you gonna be every one all in 1st hand, with a very good chance of winning? I couldn't let it go!
I have completely changed my mind! FOLD in the SNG! The first prize 3x the second prize thing is bollocks, I was thinking of 6 seaters!