[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH 56s Implieds call on turn?

    • kingdippy2008
      kingdippy2008
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Poker Stars
      SB ($25.65)
      BB ($12.60)
      UTG ($21.35)
      UTG+1 ($34.55)
      CO ($32.45)
      Hero ($25)

      Dealt to Hero 5:spade: 6:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $1, Hero calls $1, fold, fold

      FLOP ($2.35) 3:spade: J:spade: K:heart:

      CO bets $1, Hero calls $1

      TURN ($4.35) 3:spade: J:spade: K:heart: 5:heart:

      CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

      RIVER ($9.35) 3:spade: J:spade: K:heart: 5:heart: T:spade:

      CO checks, Hero bets $8, CO calls $8
  • 12 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Hi,

      your immediate pot odds are: 6.85:2.5 = 2.74:1 ~ 26%
      Even if we count out 3 outs for two pair you still have 11 outs for a flush or trips. which gives your around 23% equity.

      To make a call EV+ you will need to extract from villain x$ on the river to make the call EV+.

      3.347:1 ~ 23%

      (pot size+x)/amount to call = pot equity

      (6.85+x)/2.5 = 3.347 -> x >= 1.51$

      Like you see you got 8$ from him. -> The call was EV+
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Originally posted by maya1984
      Hi,

      your immediate pot odds are: 6.85:2.5 = 2.74:1 ~ 26%
      Even if we count out 3 outs for two pair you still have 11 outs for a flush or trips. which gives your around 23% equity.

      To make a call EV+ you will need to extract from villain x$ on the river to make the call EV+.

      3.347:1 ~ 23%

      (pot size+x)/amount to call = pot equity

      (6.85+x)/2.5 = 3.347 -> x >= 1.51$

      Like you see you got 8$ from him. -> The call was EV+


      Call was +EV but with my calculations there is no way to be call +EV if implied would be just of 1,5USD.

      So here is my calculation:

      Pot Equitiy: 0,23
      Pot: 6,85
      Impied: 1,51
      Costc: 2,5

      EV(call) : Pot Equity * Pot - costs

      Ev(call) = -0,58


      EC call is 0 at 4$ so if u calculate implied odds more than 4$ then call was +EV.

      Please let me know if my calculation are wrong.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Alan883
      Originally posted by maya1984
      Hi,

      your immediate pot odds are: 6.85:2.5 = 2.74:1 ~ 26%
      Even if we count out 3 outs for two pair you still have 11 outs for a flush or trips. which gives your around 23% equity.

      To make a call EV+ you will need to extract from villain x$ on the river to make the call EV+.

      3.347:1 ~ 23%

      (pot size+x)/amount to call = pot equity

      (6.85+x)/2.5 = 3.347 -> x >= 1.51$

      Like you see you got 8$ from him. -> The call was EV+


      Call was +EV but with my calculations there is no way to be call +EV if implied would be just of 1,5USD.

      So here is my calculation:

      Pot Equitiy: 0,23
      Pot: 6,85
      Impied: 1,51
      Costc: 2,5

      EV(call) : Pot Equity * Pot - costs

      Ev(call) = -0,58


      EC call is 0 at 4$ so if u calculate implied odds more than 4$ then call was +EV.

      Please let me know if my calculation are wrong.
      Your equation should be EV(call) : Pot Equity * Pot - (1- Pot Equity)*costs

      so EV(call) >= 0 <-> 0.23*(6.85+x) -0.77*2.5 >= 0 <-> x >= 1.51$
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Take a look here: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/184/3/

      So why is the calculation of mine and yours different?

      Is there any special reason why i calculate EV(call) in the different way as you do?!
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Alan883
      Take a look here: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/184/3/

      So why is the calculation of mine and yours different?

      Is there any special reason why i calculate EV(call) in the different way as you do?!
      The pot in your original equation should include the money you already put in the pot.


      which means

      Pot Equitiy: 0,23
      Pot: 6,85+2.5 = 9.35
      Impied: 1,51
      Costc: 2,5

      EV(call) : Pot Equity * Pot - costs = 0.23*(9.35 + 1.51) - 2.5 ~0

      which again means that x should be >= 1.51$ to make the call EV+
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I already talked with maya1986 and i'm going to try and make it as clear as possible for everyone, hopefully once and for all.


      The two standard formulas for EV calculations are:

      EV = How often you win * what you win - how often you lose * what you lose
      = equity * ( dead money + villain's bet ) - (1 - equity) * hero's call

      and

      EV = equity * TOTAL pot - what it costs you to find out
      = equity * ( dead money + villain's bet + hero's call ) - hero's call


      In case you're wondering how you get from one to the other:

      - (1 - equity) * hero's call = - 1 * hero's call + equity * hero's call = equity * hero's call - hero's call

      And that's the root of all the problems really, people mixing up the two formulas and either counting that term twice, or not at all. Usually because nobody defines the term "pot" correctly. In one formula it means everything including your call, in the other it means everything that you stand to net from the play. My advice, only learn one CORRECTLY and forget the other, both are easier applied in certain spots but if it's at the cost of you getting it wrong then it's not worth the shortcut.


      That being said, the implied odds x should just be added to the dead money, and so in this hand that translates to:

      EV = 0.23 * (4.35+2.5+x) - (1-0.23) * 2.5

      and

      EV = 0.23 * (4.35+2.5+2.5+x) - 2.5

      Which i think equals to the infamous ~$1.5 for x.


      Hope it clears things up and helps someone.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      my brain hurts... :(

      Is it ok if, instead of all that, we just have a bit of a guess?

      :D
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Thanks for that.

      I made a computer application that colculate those things.
      I think there are also some wrong calculation in the articles about that.

      And another quiestion is: Is that formula for implied odds included correct?ž

      PotEquity * (Dead Money + (2*Costs)+ Implied) - Costs
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Dead money + 2*Costs = Pot after Hero called

      using this hand
      Dead money = $4.35
      cost = 2.5$
      Pot = Dead money + 2*cost = 9.35$

      so it's the same... :)
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Are implied odds used there correctly?

      Maya if u want i can sand u application:)
    • kingdippy2008
      kingdippy2008
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      Originally posted by Tim64
      my brain hurts... :(

      Is it ok if, instead of all that, we just have a bit of a guess?

      :D
      Its my hand, how do you think i feel :D

      -Jack
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Alan883
      Are implied odds used there correctly?

      Maya if u want i can sand u application:)
      EV(call) = PotEquity * (Dead Money + (2*Costs)+ Implied) - Costs =
      PotEquity * (Pot after Hero called + Implied) - Costs =
      Pot Equity * Pot before hero called + Implied) - (1- Pot Equity) * Costs =


      I hope this settle your question. I wouldn't object the application if it's a GUI one and you can send me the sources too. ty and gl! :)