all in calling decison making for DONs

    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Hey guys
      First some background. I was going through the marked hands on my pokertracker and replaying some sit and gos that I played this week and marked for study today. I do this every week as I am always trying to find my mistakes and correct them as poker is my job and making as much money as possible naturally my goal.

      I play poker full time- 6 handed DONs on ipoker 20-50 dollar atm
      multitabling

      I was thinking about whether some of my decisions were good and profitable- one scenario kept repeating itself in different forms:

      I am on bb with around starting stack of 1500
      The sb has roughly the same amount of chips 1400-1600
      The blinds are 100/200 and we are 5 handed
      The stack sizes are roughly below:

      Player 1: 3000
      Plyer 2: 1500
      Player 3: 1500
      Villan: 1450
      Me: 1550

      The hand:
      every one passes to sb who moves all in

      Now some all important backround:
      Villan is a player I am familar with- I have notes on them and stats from sharkscope HUD and my pokertracker HUD
      The player moves all in on sb when it is passed around with hands with some showdown value. There are literally 100s of players like this that I have notes on

      I have JJ

      For the instance of this post I am assuming the player has the below combinations of hands:

      A10 A9 A8 A7 A6 A5 A4 A3 A2
      KJ K10 K9 K8 K7 K6 K5
      QJ Q10 A9

      All of the hands are one overcard hands where my Jacks are roughly 70%

      I was wondering if in these circumstances the call is the right thing. Here is how I justify this:

      If I call and lose: 30% of the time I fail to cash
      If I call and win I will cash 58.3% of the time

      Therefore a long story short if this happens over and over I will make sufficient money in the long run to justify a call

      Here is my math:
      obv if I lose which will happen 30% of the time I fail to cash

      Of the 70 times out of 100 I win the showdown I will go on to cash 5 times out of 6:
      Here I am presuming that I am at least as good as the remaining 4 players after I win the showdown and knock the villan out at bubble play in the DONs (this is defo justifyable as this is my job and I have a +roi over 10000s of games)

      I worked this out as after I win the hand the table will be:
      Player 1: 3000
      Player 2: 1500
      Player 3: 1500
      Me: 3000

      My 5/6 is- my chance of bubbling=1/6 Player 1 is also 1/6 Player 3 and player 4 are both 2/6 This is because of the current chip stacks. I am aware that this example only works when 5 stacks are similar and 1 stack is a double stack BUT this happens a lot in the 6 handed DONs so i am fine with this drawback.
      Therefore I will only bubble here 1/6 times

      Now for some more math

      70 times I win the showdown multiplying by the 5/6 I go on to cash in these 70 games would lead to me cashing 58.3%of the time. ((70*(5/6))Seeing that I need to cash 55% to beat the rake this call with JJ is justifyable.

      What do you guys think????????????????????
  • 6 replies
    • SuperSeanE
      SuperSeanE
      Global
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 48
      Hi please can someone give me some feedback for this please
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Hi,

      Your argument sounds logical...

      Anyway what is your current DON win rate expressed as a ratio?

      eg I have win/loss of 2/1

      Just want to get a feel for it. You must be having success if you're playing $50?

      Also try 888, buy in (at 10%. and less for turbos) is lower than iPoker (Titan).....you gonna have to re-do your notes though......
    • donroops
      donroops
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.04.2009 Posts: 49
      With the assumptions made, yes, it does seem sound to call. Just have to remember, it's not going to be like this in every situation. For example if mp has 2000 and button has 1000, i may be inclined to fold, just because of how the dynamic of the game will develop.
      But yea with it being this situation, can't really see much wrong with calling.
    • sk345di
      sk345di
      Global
      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 225
      Sometimes he will have AK, AQ, KQ or even better but i admit that is a rare occasion in 6 handed dons so it might be disregarded. Anyway if it's not the bubble i call with TT+ and probably AK depending on my stack. Since this is 6 handed DON and the play is more loose i can't see a fold with JJ. The only time i would consider folding is if i know the guy pushing is tight and the guy to my left is also a nit that i can easily steal blinds from.

      ps
      have fun on your weekend:D
    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      Hi Sean,

      I prefer to look from equity calculations.

      Before the hand assuming it's a $50 tourney, you have ca $55, if you loose obv $0 and if you win/double through it goes up to $86/87.

      So you are winning ca $32 against loosing $55 therefore to break even in this situation you need to be a 58% favorite.

      JJ is an 58% favorite against this range 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo, so given villian is pushing much wider I think this call is very much +ev

      Nice one on Friday morning!

      peche
    • SuperSeanE1
      SuperSeanE1
      Global
      Joined: 24.10.2009 Posts: 5
      thanks guys
      I really appreciate your answers. by the way this is my new account.