# all in calling decison making for DONs

• Global
Joined: 11.09.2009
Hey guys
First some background. I was going through the marked hands on my pokertracker and replaying some sit and gos that I played this week and marked for study today. I do this every week as I am always trying to find my mistakes and correct them as poker is my job and making as much money as possible naturally my goal.

I play poker full time- 6 handed DONs on ipoker 20-50 dollar atm
multitabling

I was thinking about whether some of my decisions were good and profitable- one scenario kept repeating itself in different forms:

I am on bb with around starting stack of 1500
The sb has roughly the same amount of chips 1400-1600
The blinds are 100/200 and we are 5 handed
The stack sizes are roughly below:

Player 1: 3000
Plyer 2: 1500
Player 3: 1500
Villan: 1450
Me: 1550

The hand:
every one passes to sb who moves all in

Now some all important backround:
Villan is a player I am familar with- I have notes on them and stats from sharkscope HUD and my pokertracker HUD
The player moves all in on sb when it is passed around with hands with some showdown value. There are literally 100s of players like this that I have notes on

I have JJ

For the instance of this post I am assuming the player has the below combinations of hands:

A10 A9 A8 A7 A6 A5 A4 A3 A2
KJ K10 K9 K8 K7 K6 K5
QJ Q10 A9

All of the hands are one overcard hands where my Jacks are roughly 70%

I was wondering if in these circumstances the call is the right thing. Here is how I justify this:

If I call and lose: 30% of the time I fail to cash
If I call and win I will cash 58.3% of the time

Therefore a long story short if this happens over and over I will make sufficient money in the long run to justify a call

Here is my math:
obv if I lose which will happen 30% of the time I fail to cash

Of the 70 times out of 100 I win the showdown I will go on to cash 5 times out of 6:
Here I am presuming that I am at least as good as the remaining 4 players after I win the showdown and knock the villan out at bubble play in the DONs (this is defo justifyable as this is my job and I have a +roi over 10000s of games)

I worked this out as after I win the hand the table will be:
Player 1: 3000
Player 2: 1500
Player 3: 1500
Me: 3000

My 5/6 is- my chance of bubbling=1/6 Player 1 is also 1/6 Player 3 and player 4 are both 2/6 This is because of the current chip stacks. I am aware that this example only works when 5 stacks are similar and 1 stack is a double stack BUT this happens a lot in the 6 handed DONs so i am fine with this drawback.
Therefore I will only bubble here 1/6 times

Now for some more math

70 times I win the showdown multiplying by the 5/6 I go on to cash in these 70 games would lead to me cashing 58.3%of the time. ((70*(5/6))Seeing that I need to cash 55% to beat the rake this call with JJ is justifyable.

What do you guys think????????????????????
• 6 replies
• Global
Joined: 11.09.2009
Hi please can someone give me some feedback for this please
• Bronze
Joined: 23.07.2008
Hi,

Your argument sounds logical...

Anyway what is your current DON win rate expressed as a ratio?

eg I have win/loss of 2/1

Just want to get a feel for it. You must be having success if you're playing \$50?

Also try 888, buy in (at 10%. and less for turbos) is lower than iPoker (Titan).....you gonna have to re-do your notes though......
• Bronze
Joined: 08.04.2009
With the assumptions made, yes, it does seem sound to call. Just have to remember, it's not going to be like this in every situation. For example if mp has 2000 and button has 1000, i may be inclined to fold, just because of how the dynamic of the game will develop.
But yea with it being this situation, can't really see much wrong with calling.
• Global
Joined: 07.05.2009
Sometimes he will have AK, AQ, KQ or even better but i admit that is a rare occasion in 6 handed dons so it might be disregarded. Anyway if it's not the bubble i call with TT+ and probably AK depending on my stack. Since this is 6 handed DON and the play is more loose i can't see a fold with JJ. The only time i would consider folding is if i know the guy pushing is tight and the guy to my left is also a nit that i can easily steal blinds from.

ps
have fun on your weekend
• Bronze
Joined: 14.12.2008
Hi Sean,

I prefer to look from equity calculations.

Before the hand assuming it's a \$50 tourney, you have ca \$55, if you loose obv \$0 and if you win/double through it goes up to \$86/87.

So you are winning ca \$32 against loosing \$55 therefore to break even in this situation you need to be a 58% favorite.

JJ is an 58% favorite against this range 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo, so given villian is pushing much wider I think this call is very much +ev

Nice one on Friday morning!

peche
• Global
Joined: 24.10.2009
thanks guys
I really appreciate your answers. by the way this is my new account.