crazy hand...any odds genius out there?

    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      This handed was just played on a 3-table SNG...unbelievable...what are the odds of having 2 quads AND a royal flush on the same hand? about 1million to 1? ;)

      (it was actually NL hold'em.. must be a problem with grab'em)
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)
      Hero:
      $1.310
      MP1:
      $3.780
      MP2:
      $1.950
      MP3:
      $6.820
      SB:
      $4.140
      BB:
      $2.610
      BU:
      $1.150
      CO:
      $3.230

      0/0 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Preflop:
      Hero folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls.

      Flop: (0.00 SB) J:club: , K:diamond: , T:club:
      Turn: (0.00 BB) T:spade:
      River: (0.00 BB) K:club:


      Final Pot: 0.00 BB

      Results follow :
      MP1 shows [ Q:club: , A:club: ] Royal Flush
      MP3 shows [ K :heart: , K :spade: ] four of a kind, Kings
      SB shows [ T :heart: , T :diamond: ] four of a kind, Tens
      MP3 wins 720 chips with four of a kind, Kings.
      MP1 wins 11,540 chips with a royal flush.
  • 21 replies
    • tommi91
      tommi91
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2007 Posts: 21
      Lol, sick hand
    • DodoStek
      DodoStek
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2007 Posts: 5
      Wow, that happens like one in fifty year to someone playing poker all day.
    • Pacer357
      Pacer357
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 1,807
      More like once in 500 years I think the chance of winning a jackpot on the lottery are a lot greater
    • SayaROX
      SayaROX
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2007 Posts: 8
      Holy Poker gods, thats sick!

      No bad beat jack pot I assume ?
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      no, it was a sit 'n go :)
    • Classical
      Classical
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.03.2007 Posts: 1,041
      I did some calculations. (EDIT: and found mistakes, which are - hopefully -corrected. EDIT2: and another mistake...)

      EDIT3: after nunki's calculations I found another mistake, so removed this post, see below for continuation
    • boschman123
      boschman123
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2006 Posts: 1,215
      lol :heart: beautyfull :heart: hand, i will ask anakha for the math
    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      Make music, not math :heart:
    • rafadana
      rafadana
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 342
      I would tilt so hard if it was in a cash game table,but not in a BBJ table!

      Sick sick sick hand! :baby:
    • swissmoumout
      swissmoumout
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      Originally posted by rafadana
      I would tilt so hard if it was in a cash game table,but not in a BBJ table!
      Even if you had the quad T's ? ;) jackpot goes to 2nd best hand only (KKKK) :D
    • rafadana
      rafadana
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 342
      Originally posted by swissmoumout
      Originally posted by rafadana
      I would tilt so hard if it was in a cash game table,but not in a BBJ table!
      Even if you had the quad T's ? ;) jackpot goes to 2nd best hand only (KKKK) :D
      Damnnnnnnnnn!Then i would commit suicide for sure! :D

      I thought that the quad T´s and Quad K´s would split,didn´t know that the money only goes to the 2nd best hand only!Oo
    • KickerAce15
      KickerAce15
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4
      This might be the only time it has happened on the 6 trillion hand history of party poker.
    • Pacer357
      Pacer357
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 1,807
      I read in a Swedish forum that in a casino in Helsinki there was a 7 card stud game with three straight flushes in the same hand one was a royal

      And people say party is rigged :D
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Please feel free to correct any errors that I may make.

      #of ways to have two-suited broadway=4*C(5,2)

      #of ways to have PP that allows double broadway quads and RF=3*C(3,2)

      #of ways to have final PP=2*C(3,2)

      # of holdem possibilities for three players=C(52,2)*C(50,2)*C(48,2)*C(46,5)

      Probability of said hand=4*C(5,2)*3*C(3,2)*2*C(3,2)/C(52,2)*C(50,2)*C(48,2)*C(46,5)

      ie. On average about 1 in 580000000000 hands if you're playing three handed. Or once every 66,000 years if you can manage 1000 hands per hour and not take any breaks.

      This reduces to a mere 550 years if you can play 10 handed. (About 1 in 4,800,000,000 hands)
    • Classical
      Classical
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.03.2007 Posts: 1,041
      Hi Nunki. Thanks for explaining your calculations. I think I found a mistake, but I also found a mistake in my own calculations (see earlier post)! So let me try to work this out.

      First, when I calculate your formula I get a different number than your answer:
      4*C(5,2)*3*C(3,2)*2*C(3,2)/(C(52,2)*C(50,2)*C(48,2)*C(46,5))
      = 8.6 * 10^(-13), or odds of about 1.2 * 10^12 to 1

      But I don't think the formula is correct! Specifically, I think there should be an extra factor 3 in the enumerator.

      I computed it this way.

      First look at the board. We need 3 cards from a Royal Flush in 1 of 4 possible suits: 4*C(5,3).
      The other two board cards need to pair two of those three. First pick the two cards to be paired: C(3,2) and then for each of these two there are three cards left to pair them, for a total of 3*3.
      All together: 4*C(5,3)*C(3,2)*3*3 possibilities for the board.

      Now with the board set, the three hands for the three players are fixed, except for who gets which hand, so there is an additional factor 3*2.

      So the total formula is:
      4*C(5,3)*C(3,2)*3*3*3*2/(C(52,2)*C(50,2)*C(48,2)*C(46,5))
      which works out to about 2.6*10^(-12) or odds of 3.9*10^11 to 1

      Comments welcome
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Classical, thanks for the correction as my formula does indeed evaluate as you have indicated. I never could press buttons on a calculator :D .

      I do believe my formula is correct though.

      For player one you can choose two cards from a royal flush C(5,2) ways. There are four possible suits and hence 4*C(5,2) hole card possibilities for the first player.

      EG. Say player 0ne has AQ :club: s, player 2 is then required to have a pair of tens,jacks or kings [3*C(4,2)]. Player two is not allowed a :club: though and hence [3*C(3,2)]. There are so few possibilities here that you can even list them. Player 3's hole card combinations follow from a similar line of reasoning. This deals only with the hole cards.

      Given this constraint on hole cards AND the required Showdown scenario there is only one board of five cards that will allow this.

      My more complete formula:

      4*C(5,2)*3*C(3,2)*2*C(3,2)*1/C(52,2)*C(50,2)*C(48,2)*C(46,5)

      Please feel free to point out the error of my ways if I am indeed compounding earlier mistakes.
    • Classical
      Classical
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.03.2007 Posts: 1,041
      Hi Nunki,

      The missing factor 3 I believe, is in that any of the three players can have the RF cards, not just player 1. For the rest I fully agree.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Classical
      Hi Nunki,

      The missing factor 3 I believe, is in that any of the three players can have the RF cards, not just player 1. For the rest I fully agree.
      Thanks Classical,

      I'd forgot that my players were ordered. The factor of three does indeed belong.
    • MrFister
      MrFister
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2006 Posts: 4,667
      Originally posted by swissmoumout
      Originally posted by rafadana
      I would tilt so hard if it was in a cash game table,but not in a BBJ table!
      Even if you had the quad T's ? ;) jackpot goes to 2nd best hand only (KKKK) :D
      not true! even the players who just called preflop raises and saw the flop get a smaller share of the BBJs. still a four digit number though in most cases, so it still comes in pretty nicely even if you had a prety shitty hand
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