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[NL2-NL10] Nl5 Qq

    • michaelqian
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      Hi all

      Villain's stats is 14/3/4 over 350 hands.

      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q.
      CO posts deadblind, Hero raises to $0.20, MP2 raises to $0.86, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.66.

      I just called, which is what I normally do with QQ from an early position in response to a re-raise, unless villain was short stacked.

      Flop: ($1.84) 5, 4, 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.24, Hero folds, MP2 gets uncalled bet back.

      Ok... I was meant to bet about $1.50 but misclicked and checked. Villain as very tight stats, makes a standard bet, I hesitated for a while and folded. I folded for two reasons, please comment

      1. I did not bet, so pot is unraised on the flop and I didn't invest too much preflop, so at this point I can still let go fairly easily.

      2. AA and KK is definitely likely according to villain's stats, especially from the MP2 position. I felt that the pot is large enough for him just to check back with something like AK. I thought if I call, I might get in trouble on the later streets. If I get it all in, he won't call me with anything less than KK.

      Are these the right reasoning?

      Thanks a lot.

      Final Pot: $1.84.
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Well to me it looks like that guy should have a range of { AK/QQ+ } or even tighter preflop, so you're calling to setmine KK+ as well as to try and see a cheap showdown if he has AK and misses. First part is easy to play, second part mostly requires an educated guess on your part as to whether that guy can actually reraise AK preflop, and whether he'll c-bet that on different textures when he whiffs.

      Against most people the answer there is 'yes' to both questions, so check/calling a c-bet on such a dry board is standard after flatting preflop. Against this opponent i'd probably still call a c-bet if he had a decent c-bet%, and just fold if he was c-betting sparingly.

      As for your arguments, the second one mostly touches on what i said about his c-betting frequency so it's probably sound, while the first one is a bit on the "scared money" side tho it does involve awareness about pot commitment. If you're playing right you can decide to c/c the flop and c/f the river even tho it looks like you're committed at that point, because if you're confident that he would only barrel twice with KK+ than the pot odds don't matter. Just make sure you're not making decision based on how much money you have to risk, just on whether or not it's mathematically sound and profitable to get involved.

      Hope it helps.
    • michaelqian
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      Thanks for the detailed reply.

      His stats are similar to my stats, which are 15/9/3. He is in fact even tighter than I am.

      I can rule out QQ, since it's extremely unlikely as I have QQ.

      AK is definitely possible from preflop play. But I would probably not cont-bet in a already good sized pot due to it's somewhat unlikely my opponent will give up at this point.

      If I call, then I'm almost 50BB deep and have to be committed. Therefore I decided on the flop it was either all in or fold.

      I would put him on KK or AA.

      But I would definitely kick myself if he had JJ, which is somewhat possible. Although I don't think he'll 3bet with JJ preflop considering our positions and our stats.