50buy-ins up in 3 days

    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Hi

      I just want to ask you some opinion.In the last 3 days i had 50buy-ins upswing, what i am very happy for, playing mostly SSS and also some BSS on NL100...BUT...i know and i am very familiar with variance and i know it will hit me..maybe tomorrow, maybe day after tomorrow, but i know it will come...What do you usually do after having some "heater days" and to avoid negative variance....I am thinking to play some days on lower limits, as i will easily consume downswing which will definitely come...maybe i am scared to much, but i have played 500k+ hands on NL100 and i know that easily, it can go also 50buyins down in just few days...

      Thank for your thoughts

      Regards

      Drach
  • 14 replies
    • tac3znarf
      tac3znarf
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.10.2008 Posts: 257
      Just play your game in your current limit. There is a saying "Strike while the iron is hot.

      I also had a winning streak at the start of this month $1500 in just 5500 hands but I did not bother of any upcoming downswings.
    • dadude77
      dadude77
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.10.2008 Posts: 1,516
      pics or it didnt happen!
    • dadude77
      dadude77
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.10.2008 Posts: 1,516
      (i wanna see a sexy garph!!!)
    • DjAdolfMixer
      DjAdolfMixer
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2008 Posts: 127
      He has no time for no graph

      Bet he's spending his new found wealth on booze and hookers.


      Gratz dude

      Last week of August i had a phenomenal run,bet you feel on top of the world
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Don't worry Drach, it's not that you need to experience a downswing now, also you are much more experienced now after 500k hands, so you'll be able to decrease your losses in rough times.

      I personaly think all this upswing, downswing thinking is kind of a bullshit, even if I'm experiencing so many badbeats in the last 70k hands. It's variance and as the name says it can't be predicted, we only try to quantify it because we get scared of the things we can't control or understand.

      The day I'll not believe in that anymore is the day I stop playing.

      Just enjoy your winnings and play your best.
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Originally posted by DjAdolfMixer
      He has no time for no graph

      Bet he's spending his new found wealth on booze and hookers.


      Gratz dude

      Last week of August i had a phenomenal run,bet you feel on top of the world
      :) :) Actually i realy do not have time today, i am working, i can post graph tomorrow, but what does it matter, i just want a serious opinion....thanks;)
    • raun
      raun
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2007 Posts: 746
      dude thats just superstition. just because you have been winning for a few days doesnt make it anymore likely that you will loose tomorrow. like people say the cards have no memory and to tomorrow you will have just a big a chance of winning as today or yesterday or in a week as long as you play your a-game.

      edit: btw grats on your winnings man! how many hands did you play to win it?
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Variance doesn't care about what happened in the past. Just because you had a huge upswing doesn't mean that you will have a huge downswing now.

      You might just continue to run well for even longer. If you feel the fear of the downswing is affecting your game - you can of course move down for a while and just enjoy that you have won so much - but in all reality the most normal thing to do is to just keep on doing what you have been doing :)

      Best regards
      SoyCD
    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      Originally posted by SoyCD
      Variance doesn't care about what happened in the past. Just because you had a huge upswing doesn't mean that you will have a huge downswing now.

      You might just continue to run well for even longer. If you feel the fear of the downswing is affecting your game - you can of course move down for a while and just enjoy that you have won so much - but in all reality the most normal thing to do is to just keep on doing what you have been doing :)

      Best regards
      SoyCD
      Yeah exactly, if you're already psychologically bracing yourself for a downswing, it will negatively affect your game and you will see yourself losing a few stacks due to bad play/being scared.
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Originally posted by SoyCD
      Variance doesn't care about what happened in the past. Just because you had a huge upswing doesn't mean that you will have a huge downswing now.

      You might just continue to run well for even longer. If you feel the fear of the downswing is affecting your game - you can of course move down for a while and just enjoy that you have won so much - but in all reality the most normal thing to do is to just keep on doing what you have been doing :)

      Best regards
      SoyCD
      SoyCD, thanks for the competent answer, maybe i should clear my mind a little bit, because i think i figured it out what happened to me in the past, when i had a huge upswing, i was very happy, emotions were running through me too much and i felt strong..really strong, so i start playing more loose and i felt "power" and what happened i also start playing bad and wrong or maybe also tilting...I have to stand to reality and always play my "A" game..I think i ll need to read some articles and books on this issue. Do you maybe have some proposal for some articles or books?Thanks, Drach.
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      Originally posted by raun

      edit: btw grats on your winnings man! how many hands did you play to win it?
      Arround 5000hands
    • ksh198
      ksh198
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.12.2008 Posts: 226
      cashout before it turns :D or just play until you feel you play bad or not stable then go on vaccation for 2 weeks, I did that, came back and crushed^^
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Think I might know what you mean, "Winning-Tilt" is always a hidden worry for me when I'm on an upswing. I'm pretty sure my game does inevitably change for the worse though If I allow myself to think of this.

      I just assume the best course of action is to keep playing the same good and not let your winnings screw with your head. (not that I've been able to do that ever)
    • HannesNL
      HannesNL
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.11.2008 Posts: 4,590
      it would be 5 times more if you played BSS, SSS is for suckers.