EV -1000bb, Welcome to my world

  • 14 replies
    • AlexanderD22
      AlexanderD22
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.08.2009 Posts: 377
      Simple disgusting isn't it. I thought I was running bad at -35BI under EV or 700BB. I keep telling myself the fish can't always suckout.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      that is how i put myself to sleep everynight.
    • aceonetheriver
      aceonetheriver
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2008 Posts: 591
      Hope u recover soon...:s_love: :s_love: :s_love: :s_love: :s_love: :s_love: :s_love: :s_love: they will pay u back...i know it :s_love:
    • xponentx
      xponentx
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2008 Posts: 341
      I know how you feel, my graph looks pretty similar, i'm about $600 below allin EV on NL50.
    • THeGaME23
      THeGaME23
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2009 Posts: 398
      God damn poker is a hell of a game, you have to be so mentally tough to succeed.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      is this just bad luck, or does it in any way show im playing badly?

      Whenever i play on NL25, i crush it. 5bb/100 with SSS, which i think is excellent.

      But once i play NL50, i consistently run below EV.

      Does it make sense that i just get unlucky on NL50 but not on NL25?

      Trying to make sense of this.
    • THeGaME23
      THeGaME23
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2009 Posts: 398
      Originally posted by elhh82
      is this just bad luck, or does it in any way show im playing badly?

      Whenever i play on NL25, i crush it. 5bb/100 with SSS, which i think is excellent.

      But once i play NL50, i consistently run below EV.

      Does it make sense that i just get unlucky on NL50 but not on NL25?

      Trying to make sense of this.
      Probably just getting unlucky.
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      29k hands is not reasonable sample size
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      I'm also currently 1300 BB under EV on NL50/100 - the trick is to simply try and increase the edge over your opponents even more - so that you are still positive at the end of the day^^

      Keep working on your game, grind less and think more and simply try to get the most out of every spot :)

      Good luck!
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Originally posted by SoyCD
      Keep working on your game, grind less and think more and simply try to get the most out of every spot :)
      +1

      Great advice SoyCD. :s_love: :f_love:
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      I was thinking about this EV thing and this is the conclusion i came to.

      Since we play only premium hands, and know when to fold when we are behind, we very rarely suckout. To put it more accurately, we don't need suckouts to win, because we just play better. :)

      Because of this, we will almost always play below EV. When we win, we are =EV, when we lose, its very often -EV.

      Is this conclusion correct?
    • extpan
      extpan
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 289
      just switch to bss ;) .SSS have to much variance :f_cool:
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Originally posted by elhh82
      I was thinking about this EV thing and this is the conclusion i came to.

      Since we play only premium hands, and know when to fold when we are behind, we very rarely suckout. To put it more accurately, we don't need suckouts to win, because we just play better. :)

      Because of this, we will almost always play below EV. When we win, we are =EV, when we lose, its very often -EV.

      Is this conclusion correct?
      Not quite :) Players usually overestimate their own equities in spots and what is or what isn't a suckout. Due to this one can quite quickly believe to be running bad - even though they aren't.

      In August I pretty much won 40 stacks in the course of 12000 hands which corresponds to a sick winrate. Among these I still remember a bunch of horrendous beats in which I lost hands where I had 95% equity or got 3 outered, gutshotted, etc. several times. I felt like I was running pretty bad - but still managing a good profit (which should have been more).

      I was very surprised that HEM was telling me I was running who knows how many stacks above EV - since its not like I was sucking out on people a lot.

      The reason though is simple. Lets assume you are playing BSS and this is always for 100 big blinds on NL100.

      You go all-in with AA and win vs KK 82% vs 18%
      You go all-in with KK and win vs AKs 66% vs 34%
      You go all-in with QQ and win vs AKo 57 vs 43%

      3 hands in which you were favourite and won. In each of them the pot was 200$ and your opponent had an equity share of the pot.

      You ended up raking in pots for a total of $600 making $300 profit - yet in terms of equity your opponent owned 36$, 68$ and 86$ of the pots respectively - meaning if it was just according to Equity you would have shipped $190 less so just $410 in pots - and made accordingly less profit (just $110 profit so 190$ above EV which is 2 stacks!).

      This means although you won 3 pots you are running well above equity. Now if you are a good aggressive player who also semi-bluff raises and frequently get it in with things like a pair + FD vs an overpair which means you have a bit over 50% equity or try to capitalize in fold equity in other situations in which you are essentially flipping - then you will get into a lot of race situations.

      Every race situation that you win immediately puts you above EV since you only had a 50% equity share of the pot.

      For my particular case - I had been winning flips and my e.g. flopped flushes vs Nutflush draws were holding (e.g. QdJd flopped flush on a 732 all diamond board vs A7o with the A of Diamonds has 68% equity - so gets sucked out quite often)

      This resulted in me running well above EV ;)

      Best regards
      SoyCD
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Ah yes, i missed out on that. You almost never own 100% of the pot equity even when you are ahead when you ship it, so you are usually +EV when you win.

      Thanks for the nice reply once again SoyCD :f_love: :s_love: