Limit poker giving me a major -EV.. guide wrong?

    • altruist
      altruist
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2007 Posts: 121
      Now I'm pretty sure the beginner guide said to play a very tight game for limit poker.

      I'm following the guide and SHC pretty strictly, I only play the designated cards in the right position, and if I hit something on flop I raise, if I don't get anything I fold at flop, unless I have a monster draw or at the very least a decent flush/OESD straight draw. If I didn't misread, it also says to check/fold underpairs and gutshot straight draws.

      If anything, if I don't hit it on the turn, I should fold the hand. Statistically that seems correct..

      But I've watched stoxtrader play in the video, "Stoxtrader - $0.5/1 - 12.06.06"
      Aside from the fact he seems to get his straight/flush draws, at least in the first 15 minutes over half the time, he's raised a gutshot straight draw all the way down? I've also seen him play many hands not recommended by the SHC.. Infact, he's doing exactly what my opponents are doing when they rob me. Raising on 8-33% drawing odds and beating me.

      Doesn't seem like what he's doing corresponds with the guide. Should I be ignoring the guide and just playing more loosely?

      Poker tracker shows:
      Limit 0.10-0.20: -$15.58
      Limit 0.05-0.10: -$8.29

      Also, final hands summary stats:
      One Pair: -$24.17
      Two Pair: -$6.19

      Seems anything under 3 of a kind has a -EV. I'm more likely to hit that if I play more cards and play till river.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.org.uk/wbb_en/thread.php?postid=48303 shows several of the hands where I lost money in $0.05 $0.10.. I'll post the $0.10 - $0.20 ones soon.

      Should be worth noting of all my losses, I've made +EV from NL poker. I have no problem playing NL and profit, but trying to follow the guide I just can't seem to play limit correctly.
  • 9 replies
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      First of all... stoxtrader is a luckbox :D

      Stox doesn't play according to the SHC because the SHC isa only for beginners to keep them away from most difficult decisions. If you start playing you simply can't learn all at once so the SHC gives you the basic and after you can play your hands (thats what you do most of the time if you play with the SHC) you start playing your opponent.

      A beginner shouldn't raise a gutshot because he can't know at which time its correct and when its wrong. If you do it at the wrong spots you loose more money than don't doing it at all.

      Since PS.cc started to give everyone 50$ the micro limits got much tighter which make it a bit more difficult to play there and the variance goes up.

      Your 15 and 8$ are just a result of the variance... its 75 BB and 80 BB which is quit a lot on these limits but nothing unexected.


      Many players advanced from the micro to the midstakes with this strategy so it can't be that wrong. Try working on your skill. I guess you already read the strategy more than once so the best thing you can do is to start posting hand after hand. If you are unsure about a hand post it. Doo not only post the loosing hands... its human that most people post mainly loosing hands and doesn't post winning ones (I do that too)

      If you call down but thought about raising somewhere and end up winning the hand look at it again and if you are not sure what was best post it.


      Don't give up every downswing will end and the upswing will come soon (hopefully sooner that later)
      And you start making money don't forget to post hands.
    • erob60
      erob60
      Gold
      Joined: 08.03.2007 Posts: 165
      If I recall correctly - isn't stoxtrader also playing shorthanded in that video, which requirees you to play looser?
    • wilm
      wilm
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2006 Posts: 1,583
      Originally posted by erob60
      If I recall correctly - isn't stoxtrader also playing shorthanded in that video, which requirees you to play looser?
      U are 100% correct.
    • mircearo
      mircearo
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.02.2007 Posts: 18
      what do you recomand for play : limit or nolimit ? wich one can be used to win consinstenly ?
    • Pacer357
      Pacer357
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 1,807
      You can win consistently in either of them they are just different types of game.
      Different types of games suits different types of players. Try it out read the articles try the micros and try the SSS if you haven´t played before. Read more then you play in the beginning and vice versa when you get a feel for the games and never stop analyzing. Never for ones think that either game is easy it takes a lot of hard work even to win at the micros. If you want to go the easy way play the SSS. After a while you will probably want to move on since the winnings are higher on the higher limits and I doubt that the SSS work to well as the players get better and start thinking, it will probably work for a while but after a while people will know what your doing and then you will only get action when you don´t want it.
    • altruist
      altruist
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2007 Posts: 121
      Originally posted by mircearo
      what do you recomand for play : limit or nolimit ? wich one can be used to win consinstenly ?
      Limit is supposed to be more simple, assured in gain over a long period of time mathematically and the losses and wins are more restricted. It is more robotic and likely has a optimal 'play' for every action in the game.

      No Limit is usually more complicated, as a mistake can cost you your whole stack, but you can also gain more. It's better for those who can read what their opponents are holding and know what the optimal move is to increase their odds of winning.

      PS recommends a SSS for NL, which makes no-limit pretty simple, but you will still likely experience more loss/gain in NL.

      In poker you cannot always win. Neither will guarantee that, but limit is supposed to give you more stability in your bankroll.
    • Pacer357
      Pacer357
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2007 Posts: 1,807
      If you wan´t stability in your bankroll you should absolutely not play limit. Mid and highstakes limit is probably alot more swingy then NL. A 100 BB downswing is nothing out of the ordinary for a limit player and if you got a 300BB bankroll that is a third of the bankroll like losing 10 buyins in NL on a 30 buy in bankroll and that is a big downswing for NL
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      The 300BB rule is closer to being equivalent to a 20 buy in bankroll than 30 though, surely. That said, a 7 buy in downswing is quite big too (in fact the biggest I've had is 5 according to my graph), I think it's possible that NL BR guidelines are just more conservative than FL in general.
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      altruist that not 100% correct. both styles need different skill and on the same limit I think its at least the same skill requirements if not higher. In Limit every single mistake drops your winrate where in NL its a bit less important (I don't talk about stack loosiing stiuations because these are often big mistakes)

      + you can make more money from one fish in NL faster than in fixed because a big mistake costs him often the whole stack instead of a few big...

      btw 300BB BRM is only usefull in the micro games. from 1/2+ you should have at least 500BB and from 5/10+ I would recommend 1000BB because the swing are very very high.