[NL2-NL10] nl100 99 vs reraise

    • WildBeans
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      raise to 5 because of someone posting the small and big blind.. Then it seems like I'm priced in. I'm basically getting around 33% to call and with a highish pocket pair that's pretty good. Plus, I may be perceived as trying to steal the dead money. Against the tightest range I would give, AA-JJ AK, I get 33%. In this case I get 34% pot odds. But if I give a little bit extra because of the situation, say pocket pairs down to 88, maybe even AQ then i get a significant increase in my equity...
      Of the villain I only had 75 hands at 11/10 and had 3bet twice out of 20 possible times..
      Fold or call?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9, 9.
      MP3 posts deadblind, MP3 posts deadblind, 3 folds, (Pot at this stage is $3) Hero raises to $5.00, MP3 folds, CO raises to $20.00(All-In), 3 folds, Hero calls $15.00(All-In).
  • 4 replies
    • elhh82
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      i would fold here, on the assumption that i'm playing another competent short stack, and he will be 3-betting after adjusting to my range.

      and 99 is in the lower end of our range. so he could probably be putting us on TT+, AQ+, which gives him at least JJ+, AK+. That gives us 28.5% equity.
    • Ishindar
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      u are right in the middle of his general range. he might be slightly loser in this situation and u are in for 5$ already so id take the flip :)
    • noclaninator
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      I wouldn't compensate too much for the dead money. If you bet too much you price yourself in. Betting $4 I think would be perfect. They get slightly better odds (2.33 to 1 instead of 2 to 1) but you won't commit yourself too much. However even when you bet $5 and this guy reraises you, you have to call $15 to win $28 which means you need about 35% to make a BREAKEVEN call. If they reraise AJ+ 77+ then this is a call, but a 10/11 probably will reraise AK+, JJ+ here so this is an easy fold.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      You get $20+$5+$1.5+$2]*0.95 against $15 which = 35.6%

      I wouldn't rely on much except VPIP/PFR on 75 hands, maybe acquiring a database would be a positive investment

      But giving the fact that you are slightly -EV against 3% (AK+,JJ+) but +EV against AQ,TT+ - I think you are in a high variance spot.

      Still I'd shove to give him a sort of note after this hand + you might be playing profitable in case you see AQ,88,TT popping up. :s_love:

      - Gerv