[NL2-NL10] AJs, enough equity to call?

    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      7 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      Hero ($10)
      UTG+1 ($11)
      MP ($50)
      CO ($10)
      BTN ($34.20)
      SB ($10.60)
      BB ($46.35)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 7 players) Hero is UTG A: J:
      Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BTN calls $2, SB raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, BTN raises to $11, SB calls $7.10, Hero calls $6.50

      Flop: :3d: :4c: K: ($32.10, 3 players)

      Turn: K: ($32.10, 3 players)

      River: T: ($32.10, 3 players)

      Three players after me are really tight, BU (loose passive) and SB (loose agressive) are serious fish, i don't have solid stats on them but i've seen them play some insane hands so far.

      So i steal, will fold vs any raise from the 3 after me.

      I call the first time since theres $8 in the pot and BU will most probably call as well. $1.5-$11 and most definitely will get called all in if i hit.

      Second time i'm not so sure. $6.50-$30, good enough to just gamble against the two of them? My gut feeling was that i was ahead or flipping.
  • 4 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      I don't know exactly how insane these guys are, but I don't really like calling a 4 bet with AJ because of domination by AQ/AK so I prefer a fold here.

      I also don't think it makes much sense to call the 3 bet. If you think you are ahead of his range, then guarantee your EQ pre-flop by going AI. When you don't hit the flop you'll hardly gonna get him to fold if he is so loose.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey elhh82,

      I don't really like playing AJs from UTG when there are more loose players behind me, because AJ OOP really suck.

      About the hand, what range do you give SB?

      Even if they are fish they should at least have some respect for your UTG raise, so I don't think you have equity against SB's range thus I would prefer to fold, also because you're in a sandwich position preflop, OOP postflop and you can be dominated when you hit TP.

      About your question of equity, I don't know how crazy hands did you see them play, but as far as I know minraise by fish --> nuts and loose passive raise --> nuts. :) You need 22.4% BEQ, but the rest is up to the ranges you put villains on and the equilator.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      These guys were playing Ax even A2o, any pocket pair, two picture cards, from pretty much any position, and raising.

      I ended up playing against TT 3-better and 77 in SB
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by elhh82
      These guys were playing Ax even A2o, any pocket pair, two picture cards, from pretty much any position, and raising.

      I ended up playing against TT 3-better and 77 in SB
      I imagined the following scenario, BU calls you as fish do, SB minraises thinking he's got "the nuts" (AQ+/TT+), you call and BU "feels" you 2 are both on overcards and shoves his any PP (22+) and you both call. That's a probable course of action, I think. And after putting those ranges in equilator it's running for 16min now and hero's equity is still slowly decreasing, but here's the result...

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 45,568% 44,891% 1,469% 53,639% TT+, AQs+, AQo+
      Player 2: 28,417% 28,032% 0,886% 71,082% 22+
      Player 3: 26,015% 25,545% 1,057% 73,398% AJs

      So, according to this you have more than needed BEQ, but I would still fold to SB's 3-bet.

      However, if you think SB can 3-bet broadways/Axs/PPs, then you have an easy value shove, but I don't think he will be that loose.