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[NL2-NL10] AJ NL400 cake

    • raun
      Joined: 15.07.2007 Posts: 746
      Hand was converted using Cake hand converter
      $2/$4 N/A yet (8 handed)
      Known Players:
      M:463.13 (Green zone)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J,A.
      BB folds, UTG3 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises $1400, MP3 folds, CO calls $1400, BU folds, SB calls $1000

      Flop: ($16) 2,2,5 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($16) 8 (3 players)
      SB bets $2200, Hero raises $6010 and is all in, CO folds, SB calls $3810

      River: ($16) 8 (2 players)

      divide the numbers by 100, weird bug...

      dont have much reads here. both players are unknown to me but SB seems loose.
      usually i would just call here but lately i have been working on becomming more aggressive on the turn.

      i figure he can bet any pp, OESD, 5 and 8 but he might fold small pp's and a 5 to my raise and call with a draw so i think i have some FE and also some equity.
      if i call and do hit then most likely he wont call a river bet anyway.
      but i am not sure if i have the equity and FE to 3bet the turn.

      looking back now i think i should have just called, especially considering that it is a 3way pot
  • 5 replies
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,683
      Do you use this already? It might help!
      Various handconverter

      No I think it is just fine as your argument of the 4th is crucial since I do think he ain't giving you much more money.
      Also he can call you with naked K and yes PPs as well but since the pot is $46(-3$ rake methinks)+$22(? not sure if he bets this amount)

      You capitalize $68 for your stack so I do think you got some FEQ%

      Is this realistic for you?
      Operation canceled... 11,457,681 games processed in 2 seconds.

      Board: 8d 5d 2h 2d

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 40.747 % 40.747 % 0.000 % 59.253 % AdJc
      Player 2: 59.253 % 59.253 % 0.000 % 40.747 % KK-22, A8s, 76s, 43s, A8o, KdJs, 76o, 43o
      Then for EV=0 , you need to let him fold 15% of the times of his betrange vs his callingrange

      Hope it helps
      - Gerv
    • raun
      Joined: 15.07.2007 Posts: 746
      thanks gerv. yes his bet was infact 22$. i am sure of that.

      i think he would have 3bet anything higher than jj+ preflop.
      so i think i have 42% equity. and then i only need 12,5% FE.

      but otherwise i think it looks realistic.

      i still cant figure out if 3betting is more ev+ than calling even though i cant expect him to invest further on the river if i hit my flush.
      just because i get so good potodds.

      so what do you think is more ev+? and could you show me the math behind your reasoning?
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,683
      With a 4th all but Q:dx and K:dx will call you which is a small part of his range if you decide to call on the River hoping for improvement.

      I do think both ranges (PPs + Naked FDs) will call your shove on the Turn. While you can be behind, the money earned with the shove is more than if you would call and valueshove the River.

      I can't give you numbers of this but let's say you have 9:s9. Would you still call the river if a 4th comes and PFA just calls Turn + checks Flop ?
    • tigerK
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      fold turn.

      You don't have the equity to call.
      You don't have the equity to push.
    • raun
      Joined: 15.07.2007 Posts: 746
      Originally posted by tigerK
      fold turn.

      You don't have the equity to call.
      You don't have the equity to push.
      the HH is bugged and the shown potsize isnt correct.

      the actual pot is around 43...