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[NL20-NL50] Nl25 Fr: Aa

    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Villian: 16/7 weak-tightish. Probably never calling the flop lightly in this spot.

      Is it ok to give up on the turn? I felt his range was something like Kx, 44, JJ, QTs.


      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $25.00
      BB:
      $44.20
      MP1(Hero):
      $39.30
      MP2:
      $10.80
      MP3:
      $24.75
      CO:
      $35.35
      BU:
      $20.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A.
      Hero raises to $1.00, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BU folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds.

      Flop: ($4.25) J, 4, K (4 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, MP3 calls $3.00, CO folds, SB folds.

      Turn: ($10.25) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $6.00, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $10.25.
  • 6 replies
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Hi I would use a bet fold line on the turn.

      He might have Jx kind of hand here.
    • dryLolo
      dryLolo
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 48
      Hi,

      IMHO the best line here is check/call and fold to a large river bet.

      check/fold is little to weak there is only 3 JJ, 3 44, 4 AK,8KQ(or 2KQs) that have you beat. That is only 12 hands . And for this price you need
      6/22*0,95= 28% equity that means that he have to bluff with only 4,5 hands on average for this call to be EV=0. And this is always possible to think of 4-5 hands that you beat.

      Jd 4c Kh Kc
      Gracz 1: 26,278% AA
      Gracz 2: 73,722% JJ, 44, AKs, KQs, QTs, AKo

      This is a super tight range
      and i for myself think that QTs is unrealistic. I think that this guy have something like this on turn.
      JJ,44,AK,KQs,TT,(with will represent tendency to not throw a high pocket on flop with no ace on it from time to time,even with 3 opponents)
      JTs(one combination) i think such players never call something like KJs or QTs but JTs is played more often due to the fact that it does not have domination problems.

      Gracz 1: 38,038% AA
      Gracz 2: 61,962% JJ-TT, 44, AKs, KQs, JcTc, AKo

      When you throw away some TT combinations you still have equity for call.
      It is marginal but better than throwing AA.

      If you think this guy can have QTs , Then he can have KJs, and then he can have some Jx combinations as well like AJs so this will get your equity better than worse.


      Bet/fold is i think the worst line here because you are very often behind and no better hand will fold. so for majority of time you will get rised and almost never get a call from hand that you beat so it is too expensive line. And your aces are not better than bluff.


      SUMARIZING
      Better play some c/c for bluff induce(as above you only need 5 hands worst than yours to call be EV+). I dont think this guy will barrel river with anything worse than your hand so river is easy c/f.

      C/F is possible but in my opinion little too weak.

      B/f is not a line to play here. You dont need protection and you are behind more than 50% of time.
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Ok will explain my thought line more because I analyse hands the way I would play them on villain cards and hence I would bet the turn.

      The reason is that from my view villain will not bet a J here and just check it behind. There is no more value to be gained from him by not betting the turn. The only card he will bet is a K and he will bet this high if he is good. Hence I rahter b/f an amount I want to then pay an amount which is against my choice.

      And the next part is this. If I were villain and float the flop I would bet turn. If I get called I would fire another barrel ont he river very often because I would put my opponent on a J and not a K and hence the only way to win the pot for me is to get him off it. I might check behind a TT but then again I would not bet a TT on the turn either, like I would not bet a J.

      Hence if you do c/c on the turn you get either no more value or you will be forced to make a crying fold on the river not really knowing if your beat or not. This in turn will influence your mood and what not because you always think what if. I hate that thought a lot and I hate thinking about it... I want to be sure that I am beat.

      Oh and last thing... folding to a large bet on the river? Villain bet won't be large... it will be adjusted just nice.
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Thanks for the really insightful replies. :f_love:

      I didn't include stuff like TT, JT in his range since he probably knows I wouldn't bet the flop 4-way without at least top pair.

      Agree that folding the turn is weak. I usually don't like the check/call, check/fold thing without specific reads. Calling - you can get stacked in a really marginal spot. Folding - your not sure if he can second barrel.

      But as you say, this villian isn't going to bet the river with anything I beat.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      flat call it and see what the river brings.

      the fact taht a second K came reduced the possibility of you having a K and thats why he repped it
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by dryLolo
      Hi,

      IMHO the best line here is check/call and fold to a large river bet.

      check/fold is little to weak there is only 3 JJ, 3 44, 4 AK,8KQ(or 2KQs) that have you beat. That is only 12 hands . And for this price you need
      6/22*0,95= 28% equity that means that he have to bluff with only 4,5 hands on average for this call to be EV=0. And this is always possible to think of 4-5 hands that you beat.

      Jd 4c Kh Kc
      Gracz 1: 26,278% AA
      Gracz 2: 73,722% JJ, 44, AKs, KQs, QTs, AKo

      This is a super tight range
      and i for myself think that QTs is unrealistic. I think that this guy have something like this on turn.
      JJ,44,AK,KQs,TT,(with will represent tendency to not throw a high pocket on flop with no ace on it from time to time,even with 3 opponents)
      JTs(one combination) i think such players never call something like KJs or QTs but JTs is played more often due to the fact that it does not have domination problems.

      Gracz 1: 38,038% AA
      Gracz 2: 61,962% JJ-TT, 44, AKs, KQs, JcTc, AKo

      When you throw away some TT combinations you still have equity for call.
      It is marginal but better than throwing AA.

      If you think this guy can have QTs , Then he can have KJs, and then he can have some Jx combinations as well like AJs so this will get your equity better than worse.


      Bet/fold is i think the worst line here because you are very often behind and no better hand will fold. so for majority of time you will get rised and almost never get a call from hand that you beat so it is too expensive line. And your aces are not better than bluff.


      SUMARIZING
      Better play some c/c for bluff induce(as above you only need 5 hands worst than yours to call be EV+). I dont think this guy will barrel river with anything worse than your hand so river is easy c/f.

      C/F is possible but in my opinion little too weak.

      B/f is not a line to play here. You dont need protection and you are behind more than 50% of time.
      +1
      also like c/c turn reasons that dryLolo mentioned.
      You get to see river card and often river goes c/c. These player won´t bluff river or valuebet worse hands than trips, but he might take stab with straight draws on the turn