Biggest possible downswing

    • darla37
      darla37
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      Joined: 29.11.2008 Posts: 50
      Hi everybody,

      I run some simulations in R 2.7.2, because i want to know how the biggest downswing can be. I simulated 10 000 000 tourmaments and there is some results.

      10-man SnG with structure 20-30-50 with 10%ROI is 45-50 BUY INS.
      10-man SnG with structure 20-30-50 with -10%ROI is 50-55 BUY INS.
      10-man Don with structure 20-20-20-20-20 with 10%ROI is 45-50 BUY INS.
      18-man SnG with structure 10-20-30-40 with 15% ROI is 65-70 BUY INS.
      18-man SnG with structure 10-20-30-40 with 5% ROI is 75-80 BUY INS.

      In every game was rake 10%...

      If somebody want me to do some special simulation, please do not hesitate to write here :)
  • 25 replies
    • dienaszaglis
      dienaszaglis
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      Joined: 12.06.2008 Posts: 999
      How about upswings with the same structures?
    • Skeat
      Skeat
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      Joined: 18.08.2009 Posts: 493
      Originally posted by darla37
      10-man SnG with structure 20-30-50 with 10%ROI is 45-50 BUY INS.
      10-man Don with structure 20-20-20-20-20 with 10%ROI is 45-50 BUY INS.
      Somehow its hard to believe its the same.
    • darla37
      darla37
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      Joined: 29.11.2008 Posts: 50
      Originally posted by Skeat
      Originally posted by darla37
      10-man SnG with structure 20-30-50 with 10%ROI is 45-50 BUY INS.
      10-man Don with structure 20-20-20-20-20 with 10%ROI is 45-50 BUY INS.
      Somehow its hard to believe its the same.
      With diferent ROI DoN's had smaller possible downswing than normal SNG's, but with 10% ROI it is very similar. I was surprised too. :)
    • darla37
      darla37
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      Joined: 29.11.2008 Posts: 50
      Originally posted by dienaszaglis
      How about upswings with the same structures?
      Thank you for feedback :)

      I am very sorry but i dont know what upswing really means. If you can define what you want to know. For example biggest ROI on 100 tournaments.
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
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      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      Well at least I can say it's possible... I had a 36BI downswing (rake excluded) playing 10people SNG's 50-30-20. There were mostly 2$, where the rake is 20% and my average ROI is higher, it's 12.5% altered by some turbo's.
    • Atoks
      Atoks
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      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,354
      I'm not sure exactly how reliable the data from this program is, but I'd like to see data for 45man and 180man SnGs if u feel up to the task darla?
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
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      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by Atoks
      I'm not sure exactly how reliable the data from this program is, but I'd like to see data for 45man and 180man SnGs if u feel up to the task darla?
      I'm not really sure where the program pulls those numbers from either. If it just takes the ITM% and ROI surely it is POSSIBLE for larger downswings than that. I think the structure of the tournament should be taken into account as well, ie super turbo tournaments are profittable but a lot more swingy than normal or turbo tournaments. Oh well, at least its nice to know that you could be playing good poker through a 50 BI down swing :)
    • darla37
      darla37
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      Joined: 29.11.2008 Posts: 50
      Originally posted by Atoks
      I'm not sure exactly how reliable the data from this program is, but I'd like to see data for 45man and 180man SnGs if u feel up to the task darla?
      45-man SNG 10%ROI: 140-145 BI :D very nice
      180-man SNG 10%ROI: 550-600 BI :D i will never play these :D
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
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      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      sry darla but this callculations are not reliable... you cannot calculete size of downswing ... yes i had ~150BI downer at 45mans but what is protecting me to fall down another 150BI? to -300BI? nothing


      take example of coin toosing .... if 19times in row fell down "head" what is chance at 20 toos that "tail" fall down? ... it is stil 50:50 .. coin doesnt remember 19 tooses ...

      it is same on downsing ... you can be down 150BI for 45 but there is nothing that guarante you that you will start wining again ... cards as "coin" doesnt remember anything ... so you have same chance to droping another 150BI as first time ...so you can easili expect 300Bi downer ... it is unlikly but not imposible ... and if you play poker you should now that anything is posible while you playing 1000 000 hands/year ... even 1% chance of hitting 1 outer (super bad beat) ocour 10 000times if we played 1m times same hand
    • darla37
      darla37
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      Joined: 29.11.2008 Posts: 50
      You are absolutly right :) but this simulation has about 10 000 000 SnG's and i found the biggest downswing. If i run 1000 000 000 000 simulations i think i will find 300 buy in downswing but the probability of something like this is extremely small. I did these simulations because i want to see how big can be biggest downswing for 10 000 players when everybody plays 1000 SNG :) and this is important for me to know because i want to know what i can expect in my carrer if i am not totaly unluckiest guy in the universe :) and i hope that these numbers help anybody :)
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
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      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      i always did same reaserch before moving up limits... watch many regs graph and write down biggest swings and than maiking ~ (priemer nefim ak sa pise :) )

      ... from this calculation i get pretty same number as 150BI for 45mans ... so i can calculate my comfort BR to around 300+ ...


      im only saying that if you hit 150BI downer ... there is same chance to be down another 150BI ... and after 300BI it is still same chance of hiting another 150BI ... again ... unlikely but you get the point
    • darla37
      darla37
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      Joined: 29.11.2008 Posts: 50
      [quote][i]im only saying that if you hit 150BI downer ... there is same chance to be down another 150BI ... and after 300BI it is still same chance of hiting another 150BI ... again ... unlikely but you get the point[/quote]You are right :) (priemer sa pise average, stredna hodnota Expected value, keby si to niekedy potreboval :) ), but it is also posiible if you had 1000 000 BI you can loose everything due to bad luck. If you dont like this type of interpretation i can run simulations and then calculate probability of hitting 150BI downer 175BI downer etc. Would you like this type of interpretation these simulations?
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
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      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      nope thanks :) this way it is more fun to play :) without knowing it
    • tombundyRNMD
      tombundyRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 02.10.2010 Posts: 4
      Hi,
      Sure hope your simulation numbers are right. Have earned 5% ROI from about 5000 x 18 man $3.50's over last 6 months by multi-tabling 10 tourneys and playing nitty. However now experiencing 100bi downswing. Very suspicious of PS because there are several players who beat me consistently regardless of strength of my hand. Beaten by 1 & 2 outers and runner/runner "miracles" way too often to be convinced everything is above board. Can I have your thoughts please?
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      I think that the problem with the random-number-generator "simulations" is that they do not account for such things as reads, positional advantage, the ability to fold a big hand when needed and other poker skills. They also don't account for tilt.

      There was a video recently where bogdan ran several simulations using cash games though.

      The site he used is here:
      Play with the site, and use a winrate of 5bb/100, and
      start w/ a standard deviation of 90.
      The worst run results in winning 30K bb
      The best run results in winning 60K bb

      The more hands you play, the more the spread between the "luckiest" player, and the "unluckiest" player.

      To make things easy, let's call the luckiest guy "Phil Ivey", an the other one, "Me".

      both of us have THE SAME WINRATE. but the spread is huge.

      Now drop the SD to 5.
      Note how now the runs are all grouped together at around 50K bb

      The ultimate conclusion is that "Variables that you have no control over have an effect on the outcome".

      Since they do, it is necessary to optimize those variables that you DO have control over, and let the chips fall where they may.

      I submit that as you perfect your skills, your winrate will increase (yay), but also your SD be lower, and tend not to vary so widely.

      Oh, and the question, "What is the biggest possible downswing?" can only be answered by another question:
      "How much money do you have?"

      Great thought-provoking post,
      Thanks for that...
      --VS
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      Originally posted by tombundyRNMD
      Hi,
      Sure hope your simulation numbers are right. Have earned 5% ROI from about 5000 x 18 man $3.50's over last 6 months by multi-tabling 10 tourneys and playing nitty. However now experiencing 100bi downswing. Very suspicious of PS because there are several players who beat me consistently regardless of strength of my hand. Beaten by 1 & 2 outers and runner/runner "miracles" way too often to be convinced everything is above board. Can I have your thoughts please?
      100 buyins for 18 mans sounds pretty common for 5% roi and its just almost 50/50 that your a roi is less then 5% making your potential swings worse. A higher roi is pretty easy for this if you improve your game start there worry about swings later try being less nitty itm.
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
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      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Biggest theoretically possible downswing is infinity. Simple as that.
    • tombundyRNMD
      tombundyRNMD
      Basic
      Joined: 02.10.2010 Posts: 4
      You're right my figure included bonus money - actual result from 5000 $3.50's 3.3%. Certainly room for improvement although I notice the most successful players are lunatics. Not sure I can see myself shoving UTG with J9 off and 10bbs yet my biggest nemesis plays this way and has won 62% of pots against me (from almost 1200 clashes). Can't help but become suspicion when I call him with JT and he beats me again and again and again. I notice that he (and other suspicious players) lack one key element in their sharkscope results ie. downswings! Beggars belief how they can run well all the time and the sites response to my query lacks credibility imo. Seems to me that mathematically correct play is punished by Pokerstars when makes me highly suspicious after now 500,000 hands of results. I would be very surprised if I am alone in this opinion.
    • bmfbpi
      bmfbpi
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      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 590
      Originally posted by tombundyRNMD
      You're right my figure included bonus money - actual result from 5000 $3.50's 3.3%. Certainly room for improvement although I notice the most successful players are lunatics. Not sure I can see myself shoving UTG with J9 off and 10bbs yet my biggest nemesis plays this way and has won 62% of pots against me (from almost 1200 clashes). Can't help but become suspicion when I call him with JT and he beats me again and again and again. I notice that he (and other suspicious players) lack one key element in their sharkscope results ie. downswings! Beggars belief how they can run well all the time and the sites response to my query lacks credibility imo. Seems to me that mathematically correct play is punished by Pokerstars when makes me highly suspicious after now 500,000 hands of results. I would be very surprised if I am alone in this opinion.
      seriously, grow up
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