When your beating FL

    • peche025
      peche025
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2008 Posts: 1,387
      How do you measure your win rate? Is it BB/100 being big bets or big blinds as in NL? And also what is a good win rate? Is 3BB/100 good, would a good player achieve 6 etc. I mostly have in mind the lower limits where I play to learn the game, probably 0.1/0.2 and 0.25/0.50.

      Thanks in advance
  • 8 replies
    • chuongdk
      chuongdk
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 210
      3BB is always too good in long run
    • KidPokersKid
      KidPokersKid
      Global
      Joined: 27.02.2009 Posts: 653
      you need to have a large sample size to truly find out if you beating the limit but at these micro stakes most people are moving up really quick so it is kind of hard to determine.
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      In FL BB = Big Bets.

      At any time anything 1BB/100 or better is gold.

      It takes, conservatively, 20k hands before you can even begin to rely on your win rate stats. TBH, 100k hands is where you get good reliable stats IMO.
    • DarthBobo
      DarthBobo
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2007 Posts: 1,134
      yea 20k is nothing for shorthanded. Maybe it's ok for full ring but I don't know so I'll just shut up
    • DukeFreedom
      DukeFreedom
      Black
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 3,511
      20k is nothing. Even 100k is not that reliable, but it's a starting point.
    • OlivierLu
      OlivierLu
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 5,524
      20K, 100K, are you kidding ?

      1M hands is a good starting point for a winrate, at 10M you have a reliable result. But the game as well as yours as changed so much that your winrate changed too.

      This shouldn't be a stat to look too carefully.

      You should play with this site to have idea of what I'm talking : http://www.pokervariancesimulator.fr/
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      [/comments]
    • DukeFreedom
      DukeFreedom
      Black
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 3,511
      Depends on what you want to know. If you look at a sample of 100K with an actual winrate of 1BB/100 and a SD of 17BB/100, you'll see there is a relatively small chance that your result will be negative after a 100K sample.

      Sure a 95% confidence interval is still roughly between 0-2BB/100, so for reliability on your 'exact' winrate (which is undermineable anyway as your own play as well as your opponents change over such a long time) you'll certainly need to have a much larger sample.

      But 100K is a starting point for basics.

      And oh well. I run -1.5BB/100 over a 100K database on $2/4 myself and I'm still not really convinced that I play that bad so...