[NL2-NL10] NL10 AJ donkbet on the missed flop

    • neriukasas
      Joined: 25.06.2008 Posts: 157
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, J.
      5 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.9) 4, 7, K (2 players)
      SB bets $0.48(All-In), Hero calls $0.48.

      Turn: ($1.86) J (0 players)
      Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      River: ($1.86) 7 (0 players)
      Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $1.38.

      Villain stats 47/6/6.0 over 18 hands. How to deal with such a supershort stacks? I beat nothing on that board, but decided to call. Fold on the flop ?
  • 3 replies
    • loop2troop
      Joined: 16.08.2009 Posts: 49
      Hi neriukasas,

      stats are irelevant in this spot as you do not know notnig about the player, except that he has a tendency to play loose preflop.

      Preflop was ok but lets look at the flop.

      Since he by his call he is pot commited he will push any two cards therefore you are playing against his all calling range.
      Let assume that he has plays :
      a) 100% of cards then you have 54% equity.
      b) 50% of cards the you have 49%
      c) 30% of cards the you have 44%
      d) 15% of cards the you have 42%
      e) 6%of cards the you have 26%

      As you have almost 1/2 pot odds you can play situation a,b,c profitably. But you have to decide which alternative is closer to reality.

      Therefore I would fold in this situation atleast if he is not a complete :f_confused: .
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey neriukasas,

      you need 27% break even equity to call profitably in this spot, but that's more than you have against a single pair lower than J and you have even less equity against a pair + :diamond: or against Kx hands, so it's safe to muck your hand here.

    • tigerK
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      As loop2troop said, he is pushing 100% of his call range here. Here I think the fold is better, but call is not a big mistake imho. If you wanna gamble safely, that's a good spot ;)