[NL2-NL10] NL25 AKs, no hit, river fold

    • LilSteewe
      LilSteewe
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2009 Posts: 28
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $13.91
      MP1:
      $5.00
      MP2:
      $24.40
      MP3:
      $25.00
      CO:
      $7.65
      BU(Hero):
      $5.13
      SB:
      $38.71
      BB:
      $29.43


      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, A.
      5 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, SB folds, BB calls $0.75.

      Flop: ($2.1) Q, 3, 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25.

      Turn: ($4.6) 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($4.6) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $4.60, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $4.6.

      BB stats was: VPIP:25 PFR:14 AF 1.15

      I guess, that there were no chance to call the river, but schuld I push on turn???

      Wow...and now ive noticed that the size of flop bet wasnt ideal...
  • 4 replies
    • tigerK
      tigerK
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      Should I push on turn?

      - NO. The push turn is very bad. You're gonna be called by too many pourcents of his range of call flop to make the push ev+. Imho. You still have more or less 10 outs clean, check behind and see.


      At the river, the donk shove is interesting.

      The shove range of vilain is very polarised.He's not gonna make it with a simple pair, except maybe AQ. He might shove the river with AA, KK, QQ, AQ, A4,Q5, Q3, 46 (straight), any 2rag and some bullshit indetermined hands which actually beat you. A4, Q5, Q3, 46 and 2rag are pretty unlikely to be on his range at the river related to his line pf, flop and turn. It still possible, but it will be quite rare. If you call, you're more likeley to see AA, KK, QQ, AQ or a bluff, most of the time.

      For me it's a tough call river here. You have 2.88$ to call in order to win a 10.36$ pot (7.48$ to win). You need 28% équity to make the call ev+. I'm pretty sure he's going to bluff with AIR (missdraw for example) the river (regarding your weak check behind turn) more than 28% of the time here. Tough call, but really good call though.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I just check behind and muck River + note him down.

      Next time Im more inclined to call it.

      Could you provide more stats next time as in WTSD/AFq average, fold to contibet ;)

      - Gerv
    • tigerK
      tigerK
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      lol.

      What do you think about what I just wrote before you ?
    • LilSteewe
      LilSteewe
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2009 Posts: 28
      tigerK: But the only thing, that I can beat with my cards is pure bluff. So I think that it wouldnt be good call. But really wanna know, what Gerv thinks about your idea....