Downswing ? or is it me?

    • Confeti
      Confeti
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 2,897
      I'm loosing a lot of money at 2/4 FL SH. May be someone can help me with this that is killing me :(









      3bet: 12%

      CB flop: 99%
      CB turn: 91%
      CB river: 60%

      Fold CB flop: 40%
      Fold CB turn: 30%
      Fold CB river: 51% (Is it high?)

      Free SD raise: 19%

      Is something wrong?? Is this normal?

      I will apreciate any help. Thanks.


      Regards.
  • 6 replies
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      You might be cbetting too much. It's looks like u 2 barrel too much to me and you might be folding too much to cbets when u have enough equity to continue. That's my thoughts...
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Damn mate, I feel for you. :( I was in similar position 10 days ago. Would love to give you some good advice, but since 2/4 is way out of my league I just wish you all the luck and let the professionals give their opinion on your play.
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Ok, my worthless thoughts.. why I'm posting I have no idea, other than I feel the FL love and need to do something. :f_love:

      i. 12k hands means the impact of variance is still significant, so variance is clearly (and I guess, obviously) responsible for a large portion of the result.

      ii. A turn cbet stat of 91% with a WTS of 35% suggests you are second barrel/folding a lot, although at 60% river cbet.. perhaps you are 3 barrel bet/folding a lot as well.

      iii. At $2/$4 I would expect your "Fold BB to steal" stat to be tending to 45 - 50%. You may be folding profitable multiway hands - but at 12k hands it may just be sample size.

      Ultimately though, running at -4.4BB/100 for 12k hands is standard variance. I've been through much longer, deeper and horribilier [made up word, don't use] runs than this at much lower limts (ie $.50/$1 on iPoker).

      BTW, if you don't already, you should get behind Los Pumas (I hope that is the correct way of writing it; [ ] basic knowledge of Spanish) ie the Argentinian rugby union team. The rock, and so do their female supporters. Grrrrrrl. :f_p:
    • TerrorBlade
      TerrorBlade
      Black
      Joined: 16.10.2007 Posts: 1,922
      91% turn CBet is high but stats don't tell the whole story.

      Posting hands is really the only way to get a good idea of what you're doing right/wrong.
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Originally posted by TerrorBlade
      91% turn CBet is high but stats don't tell the whole story.

      Posting hands is really the only way to get a good idea of what you're doing right/wrong.
      Haha I told him to post this to see if something is wrong. ;)

      You fold to much against a flopbet. I think 35% on all streets should be best. You also continuationbet a lot. 60% on the river is really high as I doubt that you have that often a hand worth betting with.

      Other than that I agree that you should not start bet less to match the stats but think about correct spots where a bet doesn't make much sense and to find that out it's best to make a video (no audio if your English is not good enough, that why I don't do any ^^) or post hands with spots noted above (remove the rest of the hand to reduce the influence the result might gibe us, for example "Turn: Hero ???").
    • Confeti
      Confeti
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 2,897
      Thanks for all your replys!, I feel very comfortable in this comunity :)

      I will try to reduce my Cb turn and river, let's see what happens.

      Today... was winning +302. 400 hands later I finish the session -100 :f_cry:


      Originally posted by ciRith
      Other than that I agree that you should not start bet less to match the stats but think about correct spots where a bet doesn't make much sense and to find that out it's best to make a video (no audio if your English is not good enough, that why I don't do any ^^) or post hands with spots noted above (remove the rest of the hand to reduce the influence the result might gibe us, for example "Turn: Hero ???").

      I did a post and then read this. Next I will do it like you say :)


      Originally posted by Waiboy
      BTW, if you don't already, you should get behind Los Pumas (I hope that is the correct way of writing it; [ ] basic knowledge of Spanish) ie the Argentinian rugby union team. The rock, and so do their female supporters. Grrrrrrl. :f_p:
      Haha yes, argentinian girls are very hot ;)


      For all the bad luck we have some, others elsewhere in the world have a lot of luck:
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      Regards!.-