[NL2-NL10] QT nl5 FR

    • herekPL
      herekPL
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2007 Posts: 6,181
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      Hero (MP3) ($5.37)
      CO ($9.55)
      Button ($3.02)
      SB ($6.18)
      BB ($5.80)
      UTG ($5.32)
      UTG+1 ($1.16)
      MP1 ($6.31)
      MP2 ($4.46)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, 10
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, SB calls $0.23, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.85) 8, K, A (3 players)
      SB bets $1.45, ?????????????????

      What option is the best, and why?
      Could anyone make mathematical calculation if push is EV+/- ?
  • 3 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I won't bother doing the EV calc but we have a gutshot straight flush draw, if SB has anything but 88 and we have any fold equity at all it's impossible to go wrong with 12 clean outs really. Even if he happens to have another flushdraw with a pair of 8's we still have Q,T,flush outs.

      We can't just fold, raising smaller doesn't make it any better either, calling will just leave us in a crappy spot on a blank turn since we'll have to fold our huge draw if he bets big again. I don't want to fold a potential royal flush :p


      Hope it helps.
    • herekPL
      herekPL
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2007 Posts: 6,181
      So pushing with 12 outs is ok?
      We only have 45% equity + fold equity assuming that 12 outs is clean, so in long run we'll be EV-.
      With 15+outs equity is 54% so it's EV+
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Don't sweat those gray areas too much, you always have more fold equity than you think against unknowns because they do stupid stuff, and with the dead money in the pot you don't need 50% equity to make it ok.


      Hope it helps.