[NL2-NL10] NL100 loose call following flopraise.

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 362755
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BB: $140.63
      UTG: $100.00
      UTG+1: $100.00
      MP1: $149.41
      Hero (MP2): $17.00
      CO: $64.67
      BTN: $100.00
      SB: $22.05

      Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP2 with Q :diamond: A :spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($9.00) K :club: T :spade: 7 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.00, SB raises to $13, Hero calls $8

      Villain is 27/3 guy on 187 hands. 40% F2cbet and 1.7 AF. I'm quite obviously calling because There I think there can be a lot of shit in his range and I only need what 22% Equity?

      In retrospect however, I don't think villain will be raising that wide a range on flop here. The texture is just too scary and I raised out of MP2 (not that he'll be thinking about my range)
  • 15 replies
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
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      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      equilator/stove?(
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
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      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i would fold to flop reraise. calling a short stack flop reraise holding AQ which is essentially trash at this stage is just bleeding money imho.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
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      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      I don't think you can fold here with one OC + GS, due to your small remaining stack. Against TT, 77, AKs, K2s+, QJs, AKo, K6o+, QJo you have 29% EQ, and you need something like 26%. Besides, he might not be as passive post flop as he seems to be.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      i would fold to flop reraise. calling a short stack flop reraise holding AQ which is essentially trash at this stage is just bleeding money imho.
      How is AQ trash here? I don't think it is.

      Do you guys think missing or delaying the cbet would be a good idea sometimes? on 187 hands can I rely on the bet OOP versus missed cbet stat to let me know what to do on turn when he bets? (I might well miss the cbet here with AT for example in order to induce a bluff/thin valuebet on later streets against my hand)

      btw. Dandycal's post almost identically replicated my own thoughts on the hand as with my other recent thread. Nice respones dandy :D
    • burek2000
      burek2000
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      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey DaPhunk,

      I would almost never miss a c-bet on such a dry board that perfectly hits your range.

      From my calculations you need 24% BEQ after the c-bet and with GS + 1OC you have more than that, so I believe shove is inevitable here.

      I think a check/raise all-in would also be an option here, but for this villain should show some kind of aggressive image in those 187 hands.

      Leaving this one for second opinion as well.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
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      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      i would fold to flop reraise. calling a short stack flop reraise holding AQ which is essentially trash at this stage is just bleeding money imho.
      How is AQ trash here? I don't think it is.

      Do you guys think missing or delaying the cbet would be a good idea sometimes? on 187 hands can I rely on the bet OOP versus missed cbet stat to let me know what to do on turn when he bets? (I might well miss the cbet here with AT for example in order to induce a bluff/thin valuebet on later streets against my hand)

      btw. Dandycal's post almost identically replicated my own thoughts on the hand as with my other recent thread. Nice respones dandy :D
      the villan called a ss player oop, his pfr stat is tight indicating he only likes to play a tight range raised preflop. its rare to see players calling a ss player oops with less than AK 77+
      the villan has shown strength by check raising the flop.
      u have a weak holding when considering the above
      u have 29% pot odds and 28% win odds(at best and thats being very optomistic) so for me thats just too marginal considering the first two points and u have less equity than meets the eye.
    • tigerK
      tigerK
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      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      I would have fold to his raise flop myself. Now I agree it's a borderline situation, cause of your remaining stack. You need more than 23% équity to make the call ev+. Regarding his AF, a check/raise do represent a big hand. With your ridiculous remaining stack, my opinion is that your call is close to ev=0 (probably ev- though but it's very hard to read him on a range). If you like swingy graph, call, if not, fold. With a full 20bb stack it would have been an easy fold.

      Anyway your c-bet was good (good betsizing). Here it was the good option to c-bet imho. But on some occasions delay it is much more ev+.
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
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      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 12,970,806 games processed in 7 seconds.

      Board: Kc Td 7s
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 73.891 % 73.334 % 1.115 % 25.551 % KsQs
      Player 2: 26.109 % 25.551 % 1.115 % 73.334 % AhQd


      ----------------------------------------

      do the math!
      there is really nothin to talk about this spot
    • tigerK
      tigerK
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      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      what's your point?

      L O L
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I can't do much things with AF, I need AFq & c/R but as the way I see it, it is now a debate whether your move is -EV or =EV and then I just fold to his reraise.

      You would have to discount some outs. Taken for granted around 6 outs is +EV / =EV I do found it borderline.


      Against a guy who is not really fond of playing Fit/Fold , checking back is better.

      And since he is on Party, can you tell me his SN so I can look him up in MY database :)

      - Gerv
    • goldflair03
      goldflair03
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      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 1,957
      hi gerv,
      checking behind is an option.

      as played:
      can u please give me a c/r-range for a 27/3 player in the sb, against which we dont have enough equity?


      the tightest range i can assume is:

      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 15,495,050 games processed in 14 seconds.

      Board: Kc Td 7h
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 30.335 % 30.045 % 0.580 % 69.375 % AhQd
      Player 2: 69.665 % 69.375 % 0.580 % 30.045 % TT+, AKs, KTs+, QJs, AKo, KTo+, QJo


      a normal range would also include Tx-hands

      sry but this is not a close/be-spot.


      just my
      20bb

      goldflair03
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by goldflair03
      just my
      20bb

      goldflair03
      AWESOME!!!!!!!

      Nice work though, good to see someone else giving villain a range. This is what I wanted to check with the post. (Equilator isn't as useful as it should be if you arn't confident on your choice of villain range)

      Thanks for feedback everyone, Gerv I skyped you his screenname.
    • tigerK
      tigerK
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      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      You can't propose a decent range here, I'm sorry but we don't have enough information to make a good one (as I said before ;) ). When I did the math AQo had around 23% equity against the vilain "supposed" range if I do remember properly. Some people wil think it's way too tight, but maybe it's way too loose, the poins is that we'll never know. Not enough data, too much instinct here.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by tigerK
      You can't propose a decent range here, I'm sorry but we don't have enough information to make a good one (as I said before ;) ). When I did the math AQo had around 23% equity against the vilain "supposed" range if I do remember properly. Some people wil think it's way too tight, but maybe it's way too loose, the poins is that we'll never know. Not enough data, too much instinct here.
      I disagree. We can make a pretty educated guess as to villains range here, yes its not going to be 100%, poker never is and we know that already. Stats can be useful to eliminate uncertainty and if we don't have a big sample our decisions will be closer, but the level you are taking this to is just ridiculous. You will have to make decisions based on smaller samples yourself in the future, In short, learn how to play against relative unknowns and stop being over the top pedantic.

      Sorry if that sounded rude but I strongly disagree with your statement that we just "can't" give the villain a range here.
    • tigerK
      tigerK
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      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      It's your right to disagree. Sorry as well for being over the top pedantic.

      Of course we can propose a range for villain, but I just wanted to say it's not THAT accurate to use it in order to make your decision because here we don't have enough data and the result is borderline. Does it sound clear to you? rude? ah sorrry ;) .

      Here I already wrote that the call appears ev=0 to me, it's because I did put him on a range, dont misunderstand me. I just think that it's not relevant enough to help deciding if the call is ev+ or ev-, so I decide it was ev=0. ev=0 = fold.

      "You will have to make decisions based on smaller samples yourself in the future, in short, learn how to play against relative unknowns" No I don't think so... LOL.