[NL20-NL50] Nl 25 FR shove ugly flopp

    • nurmalna
      Joined: 31.05.2009 Posts: 61
      Villain is 27/12, AF 3 , when i put him on that range: AcJc, Q7, Q6, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, 77, 66,QQ, KK, AA he is 70-30 ahead, but he never play set that way...so, was my call +ev?

      Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 364315
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      MP1: $25.85
      MP2: $6.35
      CO: $31.90
      Hero (BTN): $27.60
      SB: $6.45
      BB: $14.75
      UTG: $26.25
      UTG+1: $24.90

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with K :heart: K :club:
      2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($7.10) 7 :diamond: 6 :club: Q :club: (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $4, MP1 raises to $22.85 all in, Hero calls $18.85

      Turn: ($52.80) 8 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($52.80) 3 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)
  • 2 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      27/12 won´t really raise/call pf with Q7/Q6, any Axs/AA.
      I´d rather put him instead of draw or Qx hand, which makes it easy call
    • xnyk
      Joined: 04.06.2009 Posts: 29
      I'm not really sure whether you can assign him this range just based on VPIP/PFR/AF.

      If he is betting 12% of his hands PF, I think you can exclude Q7, Q6.

      But the rest is highly dependant on a kind of a read "how often he does raise-call PF? If often, then you can include all suited aces. If not, I don't think 77,66 is in his range. Also suited connectors: 67s

      So, let say he calls 3bets light and the range PF I would assign then could be:
      But him re-raising flop, I would limit that to:
      MAYBE plus AKs but it is not much likely.

      The equity will looks like this then:
      Hand 0: 61.983% 61.32% 00.66% 43709 472.50 { KhKs }
      Hand 1: 38.017% 37.35% 00.66% 26626 472.50 { 99+, 77-66, AQs+, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ah7h, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQs, 76s, AQo+, KQo }

      So, in fact, you are ahead of his range, thus I think you have a profitable call.

      In summary, I would call playing on the table because I see him do this with lower pocket pairs than yours and flush draw many times.