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[NL2-NL10] KsQs NL 5 FR - How far can you chase?

    • pablomeza
      Joined: 22.08.2009 Posts: 508
      Note: Please disregard the stats of my opponent's as I was not using them at the time.

      Known players:

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K:spade: , Q:spade:
      2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, 3 folds, BU raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.08, BB folds, MP1 calls $0.05.

      Flop: ($0.35) 7:club: , 2:spade: , 9:spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.25, MP1 folds, BU raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.25.

      Turn: ($1.35) 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $1.00, Hero...?

      2nd nut flush draw + overcards. I have more than the 33% equity ($1 more to win $3 right?) needed to call right?
  • 2 replies
    • Skeat
      Joined: 18.08.2009 Posts: 493
      BU is betting on every street, so without stats I would put him on a strong hand, like TT+.
      At the flop, I would rather check, let him the initiative, and call a smaller bet probably.
      On the turn you still haven't hit any of your outs, and he is still betting and you are getting pot odds from 2.35 to 1, and as outs I would consider the spades clean, but even if a Q or a K comes, you could still have the worst hand.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I'd just check/raise the flop and bet any turn if he checks behind. If you start by betting out and you think he can go broke with top pair / overpairs and/or minraise bluff there then you can 3bet his minraise big to get maximum fold equity but you have to call a shove afterward since you have so much equity. That usually how good aggressive players will play those hands against people who also look aggressive.

      Calling the minraise isn't bad either but being out of position it'll be hard to extract value on later streets, plus your draw will be obvious so people will often shutdown unless they're clueless, and if he was minraise bluffing he'll get to take it away on later streets with air, which isn't fun.

      For these reasons i'll probably just give it up on the turn, we're getting 2.35:1 immediate odds and we still have a few dollars behind, but the more he bets the strong his hand looks, the more we have to discount overcard outs, and we have no guarantee that he won't just check behind every on the river if we check and fold to an obvious river donk on a flush card if we take the lead back.

      Hope it helps.