[NL2-NL10] QKs vs LAG from MP3

    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
      Hero ($9.50)
      BB ($41.60)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($9.15)
      UTG+2 ($61.95)
      MP1 ($20.75)
      MP2 ($63.85)
      CO ($9.25)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: K:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $2, fold, fold, Hero raises to $9.50 (AI), fold, MP2 calls $7.50

      I just sat down on this table, villain is a LAG that plays 21/17 with 45% steal from CO/BU/SB. I suspect he steals from MP3 as well.
  • 7 replies
    • tigerK
      tigerK
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      fold. KQs is too bad for making such a moove. You're just in NL50, wait higher limits for being tricky. This is a high variance moove. You don't need it to be winning in NL50, it's not a safe spot to invest your money.

      To conclude, He's MP2, and 21/17 is not THAT lag with 45% ATS.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey elhh82,

      I would push this one as well, his MP3 openraising range is certainly high enough to make it +EV to shove KQs, to be more sure you could check his MP first in raise. Well, that's really not a necessary move on NL50, but one should try to make as many +EV moves as one can. Only problematic thing is if you make such pushes with low sample size, but if you have enough hands, then there's no problem with such resteals.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      I reallly don't like the KQ push here ,because KQ sucks against his calling range. If I'm doing those moves I ask myself another thing though, what are the stats of all the players in late position. If all of them are tight then a move like that can be reasonable.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i would also just fold KQ here as its just too high varience against this type of opponent and im sure ill have a better spot in a few more hands :)
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Let me explain, or better, do some math...

      a 21/17 LAG with 45 ATS will openraise at least 20% from MP3 imo, but very likely even more.

      So, against this range we could push AT+/KQs/77+. And if he would make a prefect play then he would go broke with AJ+/77+ which is about 35% of his range. Now, lets put this in the equation...

      0.65*2.75$ + 0.35(0.37*18.53$ - 9.25$) = 0.95$

      So, this leads us to average profit of almost 2BB each time we push and realistically I believe villain's MP3 openraising range is even looser than 20% leading to even more profitable push.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      I still think he's opening range can be dependant on the tightness of the players behind him. Also without a really big sample I would hate to make a move like that, since stats can be pretty different from reality. For example my stats are something like 9/10, but can get up to 20% on certain tables over a pretty high number of hands. also the 45% steal stats can also make a pretty big difference for his overall stats.

      Without a big sample and/or positional stats I tend to pass off those plays as any error in judgment makes it unprofitable.

      P.S. Still the numbers seem to give you a good result and maybe I'm a little conditioned by selective memory.
    • trent86
      trent86
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.04.2009 Posts: 9
      .