Is there a moment to fold a winning hand?

    • nathanrenard
      nathanrenard
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.02.2009 Posts: 816
      Hi,

      This is going to sound a little strange. But it's something that usually puts me on half-tilt, and drives me insane, i wanted to know you're guys opinion about this.

      It's like this, you're holding a hand, raised, got called, but you're in the BU or CO and got position over him. You hold a premium hand like [A:heart: K:heart:] , and you hit a top pair on the flop [A:club: T:diamond: 5:spade:] with a great kicker, put a 2/3 3/4 pot sized bet for a value and get re-raised all in.

      You got a good read on the shove-guy (this could be online, or live ok?) and you know he's probably behind, holding some rag-ass hand in that spot like QTo or JTo. If it's a cash game, i think it's an easy call, if he in fact was behind, and suckout, it's ok, life goes on there's always another hand. The question is, if it's for your tournament life? Is it worth to risk it all?

      I think in the long run it's a cool choice, but i wanted to know if there's somekind of math that explains folding on that spot. What's your idea of that?
  • 12 replies
    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      the only times i would consider folding would be when i'm really short and just playing to make the cash. And the bubble is going right down to the last player.

      If folding would result in a guaranteed cash. I'd probably go for the money then.
    • FaulV16ke
      FaulV16ke
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2009 Posts: 898
      ...I would never fold the best hand in tournament ... you can loose but most of the time you doubles up and improve your chances to win more money...it doesn't matter if you're on the bubble or not... you only should think about equity and when equity says you should call, you call no matter what...

      ...there are some exeptions e.g. DoNs or Satelites (when there are 6 players left, 5 places get the ticket, there's a shortstack on the table - then you should fold to opponent's push most of the time and focus on eliminating the shortstack [because equity says so])...but in normal tournaments imo there are no mathematical reasons to fold the best hand even if you have just 51% to win...
    • FineWork
      FineWork
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2009 Posts: 28
      You play tournament to win big and be first place and not to reach cash and double up your buyin.
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Originally posted by nathanrenard
      I think in the long run it's a cool choice, but i wanted to know if there's somekind of math that explains folding on that spot. What's your idea of that?
      Well... the math behind the hand you posted is quite simple and it consists of knowing the opponent playing style. Your AKs is by far not the best hand here, because you're beat by AA, TT, 55, AT, A5 and T5.

      Against a nit this is an easy fold and an easy call against a maniac. And besides, your play depends largely on your stack size, your opponents stack size, how big the blinds are the phase of the tournament.

      So, to draw the line - just post hands that are worrying you into hand evaluation forum with all the required data and you will get the best answers. There is no universal playing style that would be usable in every situation.
    • TheRebuz
      TheRebuz
      Platinum
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 2,078
      Originally posted by FaulV16ke
      ...I would never fold the best hand in tournament ... you can loose but most of the time you doubles up and improve your chances to win more money...it doesn't matter if you're on the bubble or not... you only should think about equity and when equity says you should call, you call no matter what...
      ...there are some exeptions e.g. DoNs or Satelites (when there are 6 players left, 5 places get the ticket, there's a shortstack on the table - then you should fold to opponent's push most of the time and focus on eliminating the shortstack [because equity says so])...but in normal tournaments imo there are no mathematical reasons to fold the best hand even if you have just 51% to win...

      THIS +
      never say never, it depends of
      your stacks size vs avg stack size on tour. vs avg stack size on ur table vs vilains stack size vs pot size,
      it depends what do u think he got and how big favorite u r to win that hand,

      bubble does maters, and eq is not best criterium:

      lets say ur chip leader in MTT 50-100 people left u have 10 times avg stack runer up 2 in stack is on ur table he has like 9 times avg stack
      so u have something like 500k and he have 450k, and lets say u and he r runing over the table
      u have QQ u open raise, guy calls behind u, he is in blinds he 3 bets, u 4 bet, guy behind u folds, and he shove.....
      u have 400k right now after all that actionleft, thats 8xavg stack,
      and just lets say he dont have AA-KK, he have AK there, and guy that calls then fold had JJ we dont know does any 1 fold K or A u had him covered and ur
      54% favorite to win
      WHAT WOULD U DO???
    • FaulV16ke
      FaulV16ke
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2009 Posts: 898
      yeah you're right... I would fold... thank you....I haven't considered that stack thing when I was playing MTTs....but how can I express it mathematic way ?... are there any formulas or something? ...how to find out whether I should call or fold in which case?
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      ICM manager tells you exactly when to fold or push.

      The details, however, lie only in your reads on villain.
    • FaulV16ke
      FaulV16ke
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2009 Posts: 898
      ...ok...but let's say I'm playing live MTT, I'm chipleader and I'm facing a decision to call or not to call opponent's push.... I know what the average stack is and I know what my and opponent's stacks are .... moreover I know I have the best hand now but I only have 70% to win.... is there any formula I can use in that situation or it's just about experience a my own feeling?
    • TheRebuz
      TheRebuz
      Platinum
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 2,078
      70 % is big favorite to win

      this is more for coinflips and 60:40 situations
      that ex. was extrem just to explain it better

      imo it depends how do u fell about ur play and table image, can outplay 3-4 players on u table ur position on tabel vs big stack, ur position on table vs fish and vs good players etc. it is complex decision sometimes u might fold QQ pre in same situation (talking about stack proportion) and sometimes u should call shove with 88-99.

      BUT THE GENERAL RULES IMO ARE:
      try to avoid tough spots vs big stacks (if ur bigstack ur self)
      never bild big pot preflop with marginal hands OOP
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by Berkstajger
      ICM manager tells you exactly when to fold or push.

      The details, however, lie only in your reads on villain.
      Exactly right, in a lot of cases (especially the bubble and DoN tournaments) the chips won will have a much lower $ value than the chips risked. While you might be ahead, you may not be ahead enough to call epending on stack sizes etc. Once again it comes down to how accurate and precise your read on villian's range is.
    • TheRebuz
      TheRebuz
      Platinum
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 2,078
      Originally posted by GunFlavoured
      Originally posted by Berkstajger
      ICM manager tells you exactly when to fold or push.

      The details, however, lie only in your reads on villain.
      Exactly right, in a lot of cases (especially the bubble and DoN tournaments) the chips won will have a much lower $ value than the chips risked. While you might be ahead, you may not be ahead enough to call epending on stack sizes etc. Once again it comes down to how accurate and precise your read on villian's range is.
      ICM is not always right he tells u when ur ahead of vilains range and when ur push is profitable but in some situations is better not to take risk of sucking out couse there is no hand taht is 100% fav to win preflop
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      ICM ITT