[NL2-NL10] QQ vs squeeze

    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
      SB ($51.40)
      BB ($200)
      UTG ($218)
      UTG+1 ($64.35)
      UTG+2 ($209)
      MP1 ($105)
      MP2 ($48.70)
      Hero ($37)
      BTN ($88.05)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: Q:spade:

      UTG raises to $6, UTG+1 calls $6, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $48.70 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

      MP2 wins $21

      UTG is 14/9, (EP)raise 1st 8%/
      UTG1 is a 30/21 fish
      MP2 is a 13/12 short stack, 6% avg 3bet

      If the UTG raiser wasn't such a TAG I'd have called, but I convinced myself not to on the spot. Though afterwards as I did some calculations it seemed like a +EV spot, even though it might be marginal;

      What do you think?

      My calculations were:

      FE (when UTG folds) = 87%, only calls KK+
      EQ against MP2's range (JJ+, AK) = 47.4%

      EV= 0.87 (0.473 * 86 - 37) + 0.13 (0.158 * 117 - 37)
      EV= 3,19 - 2,4 = +0,79

      it's pretty marginal, but maybe we could expect MP2 to be a little looser here and the fish being in the hand might add some extra money if he decides to call.
  • 2 replies
    • tigerK
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 4,566
      I would have call here. That's a good spot.
      6% of 3-bet that's pretty much isn't it?.
      What is the %foldto3bet of UTG? You didn't say it, and that's probably one of the most important stat here.

      I prefer call with QQ than with AKo/s here.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey dandycal,

      if you think UTG continues with KK+, which is very likely, then the EV equation you made is correct and the result is indeed +EV. Another remark would be, MP2 can squeeze profitably here also with TT and if he does it would make your call even more profitable. So, call would be the better choice.