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[NL2-NL10] NL5 - set on drawy flop

    • kudzis
      Joined: 16.06.2009 Posts: 60
      Known players:

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5:diamond: , 5:heart:
      2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($0.47) 8:club: , 5:club: , Q:club: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.60, MP2 calls $0.40.

      Turn: ($1.67) A:diamond: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $1.65

      Hero ???
      Fold or push?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Hero doesn't fold. Villain can have the naked Ac there or something like AQ that figures it's time to make a stand with top two pairs against a 4th club coming. We still have outs against a flush. The only way we're in deep trouble is if we get set over set, which doesn't happen often, especially when he doesn't 3bet right on the flop.

      I think it's just weird for him to half pot the flop, call the raise out of position and suddenly go nuts on the turn by potting it into you. Either he's taking shitty value lines with a flush, or he binked the A somehow and his priorities shifted, likely from "i wanna draw cheap with my Ac" to "OMG top pair + nutflush draw get value!".

      To make it simple you should probably just jam the rest in and hope for the best. River can only hurt either your hand or your action, if a 4th club comes in it'll scare him off Ax hands for good unless he has you beat, and lets face it he's not gonna fold any better hands ever, so only getting value from worse hands is important as long as we don't have a rock-solid read that he has us crushed.

      Hope it helps.