AA vs. random hands - online poker

    • JohnyT10
      JohnyT10
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.10.2009 Posts: 62
      AA vs. random hands - online poker
      statistic analysis AA vs. random hands is cca 82% / 18% .
      I account vs. only 1 opponents.
      I do not account if opponents folded preflop.
      My history hands setup AA suthdown(holdem manager)
      TITAN (unreal)
      45 hands
      AA:25 wins a 20 lost 56% /44%.

      02.10.2009 - 03.10.2009
      4 times cash
      http://img195.imageshack.us/i/esaw.png/][img=http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/7030/esaw.th.png]
      2 times tournamant

      Full tilt
      40 hands
      AA:28 wins a 12 lost 70% /30%.
      It is ok?
      How statistic do you have?
      I everywhere read obout online poker more hands = more bad beats.I do not think it.
      Regulars vins less.Bad players lost less.
      Sorry my english is poor. Thanks.
  • 34 replies
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      very small sarmples. atleast 200 if not 500 hands needed mininum
    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450
      a possible explanation is that your postflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      im not sure if this analysis is correct. you are not counting if they fold preflop ( lets assume they are fold the lower range of hands preflop). So they hands you are seeing to the river have presumably called a preflop bet and must (most of the time) be in the higher range of hands. So they are no longer 'two random cards'. so you cant expect to win 82% of the time any more.

      Happy to be corrected if im wrong here
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by evertonroar
      im not sure if this analysis is correct. you are not counting if they fold preflop ( lets assume they are fold the lower range of hands preflop). So they hands you are seeing to the river have presumably called a preflop bet and must (most of the time) be in the higher range of hands. So they are no longer 'two random cards'. so you cant expect to win 82% of the time any more.

      Happy to be corrected if im wrong here
      You're right that your preflop equity changes with your opponent's range but against a tight range you actually have more equity. Eg. AA vs 11% (66+, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+) is about 84.6%. As for the results above, sample size is tiny so I wouldn't worry too much. Also, does that include only pots that go to SD or every won pot?
    • JohnyT10
      JohnyT10
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.10.2009 Posts: 62
      Originally posted by GunFlavoured
      Originally posted by evertonroar
      im not sure if this analysis is correct. you are not counting if they fold preflop ( lets assume they are fold the lower range of hands preflop). So they hands you are seeing to the river have presumably called a preflop bet and must (most of the time) be in the higher range of hands. So they are no longer 'two random cards'. so you cant expect to win 82% of the time any more.

      Happy to be corrected if im wrong here
      You're right that your preflop equity changes with your opponent's range but against a tight range you actually have more equity. Eg. AA vs 11% (66+, A8s+, ATo+, KJs+) is about 84.6%. As for the results above, sample size is tiny so I wouldn't worry too much. Also, does that include only pots that go to SD or every won pot?
      I account every postflop play.
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Oh like yesterday I lost 4 AA in a row. So with the 8 times I've been dealt AA in the last two days it's winning chances are 50:50. Rigged!

      Get a sample, dude! Like at least 500 hands AA vs random.
    • george59
      george59
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2007 Posts: 11
      [quote]Originally posted by mishkagg
      Oh like yesterday I lost 4 AA in a row. So with the 8 times I've been dealt AA in the last two days it's winning chances are 50:50. Rigged!

      Get a sample, dude! Like at least 500 hands AA vs random.[/quo


      Had a look at youre blog........very good...but you should have the refferal link/video on the poker stategy page...$$$$$$$$$$$$
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Besides I took the time to check my AA ratio. I've been dealt AA 135 times in around 30000 hands.
      I've won with it 81.4% of the time.
      PokerStove says I should have won 85% of the time.
      The missing % is due to my small sample size. I am sure in around 100000 hands it's going to be close to 85%.

      So instead of spitting crap on forums invest some time and theory and practice.

      Gl Hf!
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Originally posted by shortfuse
      a possible explanation is that your postflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.
      Er?

      Whether you lose at showdown or fold after the flop, you still lose..........

      Only the the amount you lose can change
    • shortfuse
      shortfuse
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2009 Posts: 450
      Originally posted by andyb43
      Originally posted by shortfuse
      a possible explanation is that your postflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.
      Er?

      Whether you lose at showdown or fold after the flop, you still lose..........

      Only the the amount you lose can change
      if you get a shitty boards and still carry on playing knowing you're beat then of course you will lose. now is it so hard to imagine this?
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by shortfuse
      a possible explanation is that your preflop skills are poor. you should be able to fold AA in situations. first time you do it will be hardest of course, you may be wrong but as long as you are right more times than wrong then it is profitable.
      fyp :D
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      <you should be able to fold AA in situations.>
      O those supermasters folding Aces :) Why not to fold AA on every flop, because every flop without Ace gives your opponent chance for winning hand like set or 2pairs.
      BTW in SSS there's no way you may drop your Aces, because it's impossible that it won't be overpair, and with overpair you're supposed to move all-in without hesitation!
      I'm also in the league for losing Aces. Just got 2 of them in ~900 hands and lose both. Other day before got only one of them to lose to Q7, who exactly got 2 pairs from the flop. Yes I know distance will return everything, probably some time after 2012 :)
    • JohnyT10
      JohnyT10
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.10.2009 Posts: 62
      I never folded AA against only 1 oponent after flop.
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Just to this topic:
      Last session I've got 3 AA hands, and 2 in a row on the same table :)
      1. Against my raise with AA Villain called with 89, collected OESD on the flop and straight on the turn. -1 stack
      2. Same table next hand. Villain raise before me, and called my re-raise. Not again was my thought! Fortunately guy surrendered after flop +0.5 stack.
      3. Was twice re-raised before flop, go all-in with AA against QQ.
      Flop XXQ Oops.
      Turn A, result +1stack.
      Total result + 0.5 stack - many lost nerves. Win rate 66%, in last five -1.5 stacks, and 40%.
      (Not) Strangely enough my AA for winning rate in 10k hands stand on 5th (!) place, even behind AJo :f_eek:
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      And who says AA is the nutz after the flop ? Obviously you need to improve your post flop play
    • kosmonaut111
      kosmonaut111
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2009 Posts: 715
      BTW AA vs xx is 80/20 preflop. So if you are always AI preflop with AA, you get that 80/20 over a small sample already.

      But if you raise and get called by 89s , 66 or K9o , they usually dont continue without hitting something. So you dont win in these situations their stacks.

      Now lets assume that they hit 2 pair, straight or something - they continue and it looks like you never fold aces, they get paid off for whole stack.
      That is the reason, why it seems to you that aces cant win.

      About winning rate with aces (25-20 like you said) - you have just small samplesize. And this is less important than money(BBs) won from aces.

      So your main goal should be learn how to play big PPs - they arent nuts postflop. If you have some troubles, post your hands in the hand evaluation forums.
    • poger8
      poger8
      Silver
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 207
      Poker quiz for playing aces when your Final Destination is below zero:
      1. Easy. What cards Villain had in hole if he collected straight from the flop 246 (BTW much maligned one lonely out on the river is still 2.1%, but straight from flop even to connector 1,3%)?
      2. Medium. How to keep your cool when you have AA against QQ, and see following cards nicely appearing one after another 59T J K?
      3. Tough. How to be a winning player if you lose all encounters to AA, and when you got them, you also lose?

      Of course I've heard about distance, but don't believe that much in it. Poker is still a game of luck - and unfortunately un-luck. I've red somewhere how one guy (and fellow poker player) wrote a roulette simulator. And he found that after million (talking about distance) swipes, playing in this basically losing game, top 5% of players will be winning. And of course these guys will give you a lot of advice for winning play :)
    • woolander
      woolander
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2009 Posts: 1
      I also have a problem with AA on pokerstars... last 5 times ive had it and got all in pre flop everytime
      lost twice to KK on river and turn
      Once to JJ flopped a set
      Once to AK turned a straight
      And once to AQ rivered by a flush

      Seems after i had a really bad run of cards i started running good though
    • Chippolata
      Chippolata
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 51
      To be honnest.

      My opinion worth what it worth and i know that most successful online player won't agree with me.

      Anyway, imho I actually believe online poker is and will ever be more ore less rigged in various clever and subtiles ways.

      Why do i think so:

      If they really want to do it, they just can do it and there is noway in hell anyone will ever be able to prove it.

      being myself a programmer and having worked a lot on data compression with statistics, I have no doubt that you can actually do kind of whatever you want. Especially if your servers are located in a country where noone will ever be able to investigate them.

      In the end why i am actually convinced online poker is rigged is not the bad beat or whatever of the game itself.

      It is the opbvious ability for them to do so and the enormous financial interest they have in doing so.

      This doesn't mean that you cannot win, not at all...

      In the end what i actually think is:

      Why in hell would they not do it ?!

      please tell me...

      And as a conclusion:

      How in hell would i care about it as long as i still can make money out of it ?

      I rather play rigged poker to make 85% of the money i should than spend my entire life working without being ever able to earn half of it.
    • 1
    • 2