Tim64's Full-Tilted-Two-Tiered-Ticket-Tourney-Tumble!

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Challenge

      To win first prize in a Tier 3 $75 SnG on Full Tilt Poker.

      Background

      I've been mulling over what to do with my Full Tilt Points and Iron Man medals for a while now. I have around 12,000 points and when I recommence playing regularly I should earn roughly 200 points a day. I basically have a choice: to spend those points on goods/services from the FT shop; or to reinvest those points as buyins for poker games.

      Assumption 1. I am a winning player. That is, I have some undefined 'edge' over a certain portion of players on the poker platform.

      Assumption 2. Every $1 spent in the shop is equal to exactly $1.

      Assumption 3 (from #1 above). Every $1 reivested in playing poker is equal to $1 + X, where 'X' represents the edge I have over my opponents, up to a given level.

      Conclusion A: By reinvesting my FTP in poker games rather than spending them in the shop I achieve greater value for the points and therefore I increase the overall value of the rakeback I receive for playing. Although FTP and Iron Man medals constitute only a small portion of our overall rakeback, we still have a 'duty' to get best value from these extras - as we see fit. It's worth noting that Assumption 1. is crucial. If I were a 'losing' player whose profit came from rakeback alone, I would do better not to reinvest the points/medals in poker games.

      Caveat: There is of course a risk that I will spend the FTP/Medals on tournament entries or tokens and fail to cash in any of them (due to luck/variance), in which case the value of the FTP could be viewed as zero. However, as this is just as true with any $ wagered in poker, we can exclude this as a factor so long as we are prepared for the possibilty that we may receive no value for our FTP in the short term. If certainty is what we crave, better spend the points on a pack of cards and a beer tankard! In short, ultimately we must assume that reinvesting FTP in tourney entries should be a '+EV' activity.

      Plan

      To spend all FTP earned and Iron Man medals received on either tokens or tiered SnG tourney entries, with the aim of ultimately playing a $75 token SnG for a chance to win $310.50.

      Step 1.
      Obtain $26 Token. This step to be obtained by either: spending Iron Man medals on a token directly or by spending FTP to enter the 600 or 1800 FTP 9 man Tier One SnGs and by 'cashing' in such tournament.

      Step 2. Use $26 Tokens to enter Tier Two SnGs and thereby obtain, as a prize, a $75 Token.

      Step 3. Use $75 Tokens to enter Tier Three SnGs where winnings can finally... at long last... be received in cold, hard cash. ( :P )!

      Starting FTP Bankroll and Decisions

      At today's date I have 12,431 FTP and just 65 Iron Man medals. The FTP points are equivalent to 20 buyins for the 600 FTP SnGs or 6 buyins to the 1800 FTP SnGs. The difference is that there are 3 $26 tokens to be won in the 1800 (for placing 1-3) whereas only the winner of the 600 FTP tournaments receives the sole token up for grabs. (The medals are worth just under half of one $26 token which sell for 140 medals in the Iron Man store).

      So here's where I need your help. Should I aim for the cheaper 600 FTP tournaments which I need to win outright? Or should I pay the higher entry fee for an increased chance (presumably at least 3x the likelihood) of 'cashing' by coming 1-3?

      I'll be posting progress here, but don't expect anything to happen quickly. The value of 12K FTP is only about $60 in total so not even 1 buyin for the $75 tourneys and of course I cannot expect to win at the first try...

      Well, wish me luck and if anyone has thoughts on how I can increase the overall efficiency of this endeavour, or other suggestions for maximising the 'points to dollars' conundrum, let me know!
  • 77 replies
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      This is a very nice idea Tim as those tourneys are incredibly soft, beyond imagination. I'm not a tourney player, just played a couple for fun and did allright sometimes.

      Jsut remember play is so fishy you don't want to get involved in any pots without a premium hand since moves don't work.

      I think you'll crash them easily and get a much better value for your points than some random good from the store.
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Nice challenge! What type of SnGs does FTP offer at the $75 level, I know there are definitely Super Turbos but are there regular Turbos? The token levels (and FTP satalites) are extremely soft so I think you will do well. One of my goals is to reach the $75 SnG (especially if there are regular turbos) since there will always be plenty of fish at this level, usually with scared money. I played a few of the STs and I found that the limit was easier than the $15-30 levels!
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Does anyone know what kind of traffic the $75 token level gets during peak times? Ie how many games running at once, preferably 9 man, turbos.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Thanks for all your comments, folks. I am pleased to report I now have 1 $26 token - yeah!!!

      Spent 1800 FTP (approx $8.6) on entry to a Tier 1 SnG as part of a set of $22+2s just now. Managed only one second place in the 22s out of 5 X( , but won the Tier 1 by calling off a bubble shove with QQ and not getting sucked out.

      Should be p***ed off at the 22+2 session as I was about 80$ below EV, but in fact I'm delighted.

      @GunFlavoured; not sure about traffic but there are definitely both Turbos and Regular 9 man $75 token SnGs. Didn't see any Super Turbos just now but maybe at other times...

      Challenge Progress:

      FTP: 10,779
      IM Medals: 65
      $26 Tokens: 1(!)
      $75 Tokens: 0
    • KidPokersKid
      KidPokersKid
      Global
      Joined: 27.02.2009 Posts: 653
      I dunno if this matters to you, but when you use your FTP in a STT/MTT the same amount of value that the prize pool is per player (aka the $ value of the buyin) is removed from your rakeback... this is why at FTP its better to just hold onto your FTPs and try for the motorcycle :f_biggrin:
    • fuzzygoggle
      fuzzygoggle
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.06.2009 Posts: 60
      if you want extra tokens try doing some of the full tilt academy challenges
      5000 points = 1 $26 token
      the sng challenges are easy
    • EagleStar88
      EagleStar88
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 7,359
      Originally posted by KidPokersKid
      I dunno if this matters to you, but when you use your FTP in a STT/MTT the same amount of value that the prize pool is per player (aka the $ value of the buyin) is removed from your rakeback... this is why at FTP its better to just hold onto your FTPs and try for the motorcycle :f_biggrin:
      Not quite correct, the value of your Buy In ($0.005 per FTP point) is deducted from your Net Earned Rake. You would only lose 27% of this value from rakeback so still cost effective imo.

      I know what you mean about the Harley Davidson though, I think it was 1,000,000 ftp points and I've already got nearly 100k lol.

      Good luck Tim, great challenge. I also do those tier tourneys occasionally, but will try to steer clear of you! Your Full Tilt user name is something logical to identify you I assume?, mine is :P

      Best regards,


      Bart
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      The more I look into FTP, the more I get the feeling that we can't avoid losing some of our 27% weekly rakeback when we spend the points.

      Even if we hold out for the Harley (and I have a Honda CBR600 already...) we still lose rakeback when we cash the points in.

      So until someone disproves me, I'm sticking to the theory that tourney tokens are the best value - especially to a tourney player.

      One thing I have been mulling over: should I
      a) wait until I have enough Iron Man medals for a $75 token; or
      b) cash in the 140 medals - as soon as I acquire that many - on a $26 token?

      In favour of a) is that if our ultimate aim is to cash in a $75 tourney, we eliminate the chance factor by buying our way straight in.

      In favour of b) is that we can reasonably assume our edge at the $26 tourneys will be greater than at the $75 which effectively means that every $ we invest at the lower buyin tourneys is worth more than those invested in higher buyin tourneys. (However, note that our $/hr for 'crystallising' the rakeback should be the other way round).

      In terms of the cost of the tokens, a $26 token is 140 IMM ($1 = 5.38 medals) and a $75 token is 400 IMM ($1 = 5.333 medals). So the $75 tokens are very marginally better value. Gut instinct tells me this isn't enough to outweigh the edge factor. But the $/hour is a tougher point. Whenever we play low limit tourneys (e.g. the 1800 FTP tourneys) at the expense of our mainstay SnGs, we are potentially sacrificing the $/hour we would have earned had we substituted a regular buyin SnG for the rakeback crystalising SnG.

      Tricky... :D

      FTP: 15,305
      IM Medals: 155
      $26 Tokens: 1
      $75 Tokens: 0

      Over and Out
      Tim64 - Full Tilt Poker Rakeback Bore
    • raun
      raun
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2007 Posts: 746
      hi tim exciting new blog you have here :)

      might i ask one thing though?

      have you taken time = money into consideration as well?
      i mean the time spent on converting the points into money through tournaments could also be spent playing your usual tournaments.

      edit: oh sorry i missed what you wrote about this in your last post, sorry.

      but i do think it ruins the possible value gained by playing these rb s&g
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      but i do think it ruins the possible value gained by playing these rb s&g


      Well, I certainly believe we have to factor in the lost value. What I've been thinking lately is that if we can squeeze individual 'rakeback crystalisation' tournaments (my name for any SnG without a cash $ buyin that we enter to turn points or medals into dollars) into our sets at a roughly equivalent value, we do the minimum damage.

      For example, at the moment, I am playing $22 SnGs. Well, if I swap one $26 token SnG for a regular SnG, I am in a sense maintaining roughly the same $/hour invested. Since we can look on our buyin for the token tourney as 'free', we should find our actual ROI for those sets where we play one token tourney is higher because we win a similar amount of $ for a lower amount invested.

      It would be nice if we could just add an extra rakeback crystalisation tourney to our regular set. The problem with this is that once we exceed our maximum tourneys for our ability we drop concentration and lose ROI... (And then we negate the effect of the rakeback).
    • advola
      advola
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.06.2009 Posts: 361
      Very nice blog alot of good luck for you!

      I will tell you about something i did in this
      tier turnies...
      I had only started here and had bankroll of
      200$..
      I entered the 4.4$ tier1 9ppl sng
      when first win 26$ token i won.

      Entered to the 18 ppl tier 2 sng
      where 1-5 win 75$ token.
      Won it.

      Got to the tier 3 and won first! For the 310$


      Just wrote to keep you going and rich high.
      Gl again
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Inspiration indeed!

      Thanks - I shall be hoping to emulate your success!

      Tim
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Quick update while I'm in posting mode...

      I've now played 5 of the 1800 FTP Tier 1 9 man SnGs which pay out 3 $26 tokens.

      Results so far are 2 $26 tokens ($52 for 9000 FTP investment). This works out at $0.006 per FTP which compares favourably with the $0.0048 standard trade value which we get from dividing the the $72 prize pool by the 1800FTP x9 entrants (i.e. $72/16200 FTP).

      To put it another way, I have increased the value of the 9000 FTP investment by $8.80 by investing them in tournament entries rather than spending them on FTP Store items.

      Or, to put it yet another way, the FTP value of the $52 tokens is 10,833 at the 0.0048 exchange rate. Given an investment of 9000 FTP this is an equivalent profit of 1833 FTP which is an effective ROI of 20%.

      I think you'll agree that these are pretty compelling stats after such a huge sample size as 5 tounaments :D

      I think you'll also agree that I need to get out more...

      Laters,
      Tim64

      Challenge summary:
      FTP: 13,500
      IM Medals: 155+(85 on the way)
      $26 Tokens: 2
      $75 Tokens: 0
    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Now sometimes I put my foot in my mouth because I read something and then do my own math
      but I am going to throw this one out there anyways..... If I have this correct then this is what I see...

      You spent 9k points and you came up with $52.

      9k points got you 5 games, which you got paid in 2 out of 5.

      For 275 points you can enter the Satty for $12.

      by my numbers, you get 32 chances at $12 instead of 5 chances at $26.

      Downside being you get the $12 only if you place first, not 3 spots like the 1800 pointers.

      but with ~6 times the chance doesnt that balance out??

      And instead of having to use the tokens on specific buy ins your $t is yours to keep.

      Again if I am wrong then good, I will learn something here. I am going to look at the tourneys now
      to see if I can find something.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      I am sure you are not wrong, 8979687.

      As you say, the differing value of the 'chance' you are buying is not so great. 32 chances for $12 is the same as 16 chances for $24. This seemingly compares favourably with the "5 chances at $26" you mentioned. However, as you pointed out, we get 3 chances for the $26 tokens per tourney (because 3 places are paid) and that's the same as 3x5 chances, i.e. 15 chances for $26. So it seems that there's barely any difference (which you'd expect).

      Now, I would have thought in general that FTP spent at lower buying tournaments have a higher $value (i.e. they will attract a greater ROI).

      This is because the tournaments are softer the lower the buyin. I would therefore expect you to cash (i.e. come first) often enough to make spending the 275 points more 'profitable' point-for-point than on the 1800 Tier 1 tourneys.

      But, and potentially it's a big 'but', it's not enough just to consider ROI. We also need to consider the opportunity cost of the time spent. For example, my ROI at the $6.50 turbo SnGs is higher than at the $22s. But that doesn't mean my $/hour will necessarily be greater (in fact, it is probably the other way round). Because there is a time cost when we play rake-crystalising tournaments (as with any poker variant) we do have to weigh up this too, when deciding how best to spend our points.

      The $t is another factor to consider. Although you said these $t are 'yours to keep' I'm not sure that's quite true. You still need to spend them on tournaments to crystalise them into actual cash $. In principle this is the same as the tokens. The main difference is that we can spend the $t on those tournaments we most enjoy playing (or which are most profitable for us) rather than having to spend them on a certain buyin tourney ($26/$75).

      So I generally agree with you but I think there are a number of variables which will ultimately determine the most profitable way of spending FTP. I think these are:

      1. Rate at which we can ultimately crystalise FTP to $ cash per tourney (ROI);
      2. Time cost/FTP spent ($/hr); and
      3. Flexibility of tourney entry.

      However, I think 3. is only important because of its affect on 1. and 2. above (i.e. we want to play those tournaments where the balance between $/hr and ROI is most favourable overall).

      Cheers for reading...
    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Or as in my case #3 is the winner of the choice because of BRM.

      I am playing the $1 super turbos and the FTPS are piling up fast.
      But it would feel wrong playing a $26 sng with less than $200 BR.

      Thanks for breaking that down anyways. It pretty much like you said comes
      down to a matter of what makes you the most the fastest. Maybe I will use
      my points on the 275ers and you use yours on the1800s untill my BR catches up,
      and we can see how it works out?

      BTW why is their only a tier one? I looked and didnt see a 2 or better.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Sound goods, 8979687, :- we can both keep a record and see how we get on.

      And you're right - BRM is another important consideration!

      If you didn't see the Tier 2 & 3 trnys it may have been because you had the freeroll/FTP filter on. The buyin for the Tier 2 & 3 trnys is tokens so you won't find them in the FTP section.

      If it's not that then not sure...
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      I think with these you need to take in account the negative affect using FTP's has on your rakeback as well in your calculations
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      I think with these you need to take in account the negative affect using FTP's has on your rakeback as well in your calculations


      Of course rakeback is a consideration, but I'm not sure it can help us decide which tournaments to enter with our FTP.

      We lose r/back whenever we spend FTP on tournaments, but I don't think we lose more depending on the level of buyin.