What are the odds for this ? SICK!

    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      I'm just wondering what are the odds of loosing an ace with a bigger kicker against and ace with lower kicker 9 TIMES IN A ROW. This is just ridicoulus !

      I lost AKo vs AJo(2 times),AKs vs AJo, A9o vs A5s, A7s vs A2s, AQs vs A10o , A10o vs A9o, AKo vs AQo and last but the best of all - AKo vs AKo , he hit the flush on the river with 4 hearts.

      So this is in a row ! I play heads up 10$ , and you're often in situation to go all in, sometimes I was chip leader sometimes behind but these hands where in a row when i had a bigger ace. I got pretty unlucky yesterday but this is too much.

      How do you cope with this ?
      Can someone please tell me the odds of loosing these hands in a row ?
      What I mean by in a row, i mean an all in where i had bigger ace, it means i didnt win in any situation where I was like 73% favourite 9 straight hands.

      SICK ! How can you not belive it's not rigged I ask you ?! Especialy when I won a decent amount in MTT day before yesterday, and now it's time to give it back right ?

      This was on Party Poker but it's not much different at any other site.
      I'm just very dissapointed, especially because lot of these players that won against me are just awful, they didnt deserve to win.
  • 8 replies
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      How do you cope with this ?


      Simple - play more hands.

      And about rigged poker sites - what exactly would they gain by you losing money? The only reasonable explanation for "adjusting" the algorythms would be to create situation in which players would produce big amount of rake. That would require very good stats on each of the player, (e.g. you can give AA to a TAG, but he will fold them when he see's he's not a favourite anymore), their playing styles, their BR and then incorporate slight changes in the code so the system itself by it's adjusting would run somewhere near the boundaries of artifical intelligence.

      I think it is theoretically possible, but I don't see any practical reasons to do such an experiment on low/middle stakes where vast amount of players (site's incomes) plays. Especially not where there are more sophisticated(sneaky) methods to "cheat" you off your money, like this for example: Party raking way more on $1/2FL
    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      I think the main thing is to keep everyone playing so fresh money never stops coming (people just keep depositing). In order to do that you have to go in favour of large majority of terrible players. Cause if they would loose in a pecentage they should a lot of them would pretty quickly stop playing and there would be a lot less money from which they can take profits. I think that's all it's about and that's why much more "lucky" hands are dealt online that in live games. They just have to ensure enough money comes in !
    • Kimber88
      Kimber88
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.07.2008 Posts: 1,333
      Could we stop with the rigged thing?

      I assume you play HU SnG, yes? Get used to the beats. They feel 10x worse in HU than in ring games imo.

      If you weren't a "poker-is-rigged-because-I-lose" guy I would give some more constructive advice maybe. But naah..

      Take care...
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Originally posted by ii40747
      I think that's all it's about and that's why much more "lucky" hands are dealt online that in live games. They just have to ensure enough money comes in !
      Tell me... how much live poker do you play?
    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      Hey, first to clear something out. I have taken many downstreaks in my poker carrer so far. I'm not angry, mad or whatever because i lost some money. You have to be used to that if you're serious player ! I'm sorry this turned to be topic about are poker sites rigged or not. It was never my attention.

      I just wondered if someone can tell me how mathematicaly determine percentage of probability this to happen ? I have percentage for each hand, bud i would like to know that number for these 9 in a row. I just want to see my unluckiness in that one number.

      Live poker i play once, sometimes twice a week for 3 years now pretty regular...

      Thanks !
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      0.27^9 (0.27*0.27*...*0.27 , there are 9 of these 0.27)
      For other examples: to win 3 times with aces (let's say in a tournament): 0.8*0.8*0.8 around 50%, to lose/win x coinflips in a row 0.5^x, etc..

      If it makes you feel any better to me it happened to lose with middle set in a hand where there were 4 players: one with bottom set, me, one with top set and one with the nut flush draw. So what are the odds of that?
    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      So if this is true, probability for this to happen is 0,00076% ! Pretty unbelivable !
      I am THIS MUCH UNLUCKY ! :) )

      Cheers
    • Kimber88
      Kimber88
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.07.2008 Posts: 1,333
      Originally posted by ii40747
      So if this is true, probability for this to happen is 0,00076% ! Pretty unbelivable !
      I am THIS MUCH UNLUCKY ! :) )

      Cheers

      On a positive note you should be easily secksing the womenz now... :s_cool: