[NL2-NL10] TT overpair oop with initiative

    • pablomeza
      Joined: 22.08.2009 Posts: 508
      NOTE: Please disregard the stats shown for my opponents as I was not using them at the time.

      Known players:

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T:heart: , T:club:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($0.47) 3:spade: , 8:club: , 8:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30.

      Turn: ($1.07) J:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.70, CO raises to $2.00, Hero...?

      I don't think the overcard should scare me, and I think JJ+ AQ+ 3bet's on the flop, so my frist instict was he was on a :diamond: draw and to push. Thanks!
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      I would likely fold there, seems that we are behind.

      Best regards,
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Originally posted by veriz

      I would likely fold there, seems that we are behind.

      Best regards,

      This. You'll likely lose a lot of money at microstakes if you start assuming unknowns are making moves all the time, especially when you have a hand that doesn't even have top pair beat, if you're behind you have 4% equity. That's nowhere near good enough to shove over in that spot against a call flop raise turn line imo. Even if you're right and he backdoored a draw, he has to call it off at that point and you're likely up against 2 overs with a flushdraw, for a whopping 15 outs, that still wins 30% of the time.

      Most of the tags you'll encounter will rarely show up with a flushdraw because they're not so likely to peel the flop with two naked diamonds, unless maybe it's exactly AdQd and they're floating AQ-high. The fish might float any two diamond overcards, but they're a lot more likely to just call again on the turn with their draw then to go nuts with it.

      Hope it helps.