This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] TT overpair oop with initiative

    • pablomeza
      Joined: 22.08.2009 Posts: 508
      NOTE: Please disregard the stats shown for my opponents as I was not using them at the time.

      Known players:

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T:heart: , T:club:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($0.47) 3:spade: , 8:club: , 8:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30.

      Turn: ($1.07) J:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.70, CO raises to $2.00, Hero...?

      I don't think the overcard should scare me, and I think JJ+ AQ+ 3bet's on the flop, so my frist instict was he was on a :diamond: draw and to push. Thanks!
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      I would likely fold there, seems that we are behind.

      Best regards,
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Originally posted by veriz

      I would likely fold there, seems that we are behind.

      Best regards,

      This. You'll likely lose a lot of money at microstakes if you start assuming unknowns are making moves all the time, especially when you have a hand that doesn't even have top pair beat, if you're behind you have 4% equity. That's nowhere near good enough to shove over in that spot against a call flop raise turn line imo. Even if you're right and he backdoored a draw, he has to call it off at that point and you're likely up against 2 overs with a flushdraw, for a whopping 15 outs, that still wins 30% of the time.

      Most of the tags you'll encounter will rarely show up with a flushdraw because they're not so likely to peel the flop with two naked diamonds, unless maybe it's exactly AdQd and they're floating AQ-high. The fish might float any two diamond overcards, but they're a lot more likely to just call again on the turn with their draw then to go nuts with it.

      Hope it helps.