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[NL2-NL10] NL600 JJ vs A on flop

    • IamPoZ
      IamPoZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2007 Posts: 10,747
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Replay della mano

      $3/$6 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $600.00
      CO:
      $99.00
      BU:
      $108.00
      SB:
      $105.00
      BB:
      $105.00
      UTG2(Hero):
      $126.00
      MP1:
      $651.00
      MP2:
      $277.20


      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with J, J.
      Hero raises to $18.00, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $18.00, 5 folds.

      Flop: ($45) 4, A, 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $24.00, MP2 raises to $84.00, Hero folds, MP2 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $69.

      OPP 33/8 FCbet 33%, few hands
  • 7 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      I'd be careful against a raise from such a passive player and fold as you did without further info. But with reads that he gets aggressive on these boards I'd probably try ch/r here, sometimes ch/c depending on board, stacksize etc.
    • IamPoZ
      IamPoZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2007 Posts: 10,747
      I actually had a note on him making some moves with mid pairs (but not with the ace on the board)..but also another doing this with TPGK..
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      why do you cbet here? which better hand will fold, which worse hand will call ? Fcbet is a nice Stat but definitely not the most important in this hand, what about raise cbet% or bet against missed conti/aggression frequency to check out if c/c is an option etc
    • IamPoZ
      IamPoZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2007 Posts: 10,747
      Originally posted by ysessa
      why do you cbet here? which better hand will fold, which worse hand will call ? Fcbet is a nice Stat but definitely not the most important in this hand, what about raise cbet% or bet against missed conti/aggression frequency to check out if c/c is an option etc
      you are right, but I have to state something else here: potentially I have many scare cards on the turn (K,Q, and :heart: of course) and no redraws possible. I don't have stats here, but I remember he's kinda passive.

      Even if he has a "high" bet vs missed cbet, with only few hands (which means it is not significant) I tend to give more importance to protection, since a calldown here (or c/r turn), based on bluff induce could turn into a very expensive play (due to the fact that the board is also drawheavy).
    • snotboogie
      snotboogie
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2009 Posts: 5,851
      Do you cbet all your Aces here? KK? any 4x if you sometimes raise them here PF?

      imo easy c/c, reevaluate Turn depending on card and obv his AF Turn

      edit: and on a paired, A-high and unconnected board you can for once let protection be your least concern.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      you cant protect against a fdraw, against a fdraw with 1 overcard you only have 59% equity against KhQh you are flipping. You overestimate the fdraw combos compared to Ax Combos. AJo has 9 combos on this flops which nearly equals his possible fdraw combos, I just want to show you when we add nearly every fdraw combo and just some Ax you are still a big underdog:

      Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

      12,100,588 games 3.437 secs 3,520,683 games/sec

      Board: Ah 4h 4c
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 72.915% 72.77% 00.15% 8805218 18560.50 { AQs-A8s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 54s, 3h2h, AQo-A8o }
      Hand 1: 27.085% 26.93% 00.15% 3259175 18560.50 { JcJd }


      When you dont induce some bluffs you can c/f this board against a passive player, there is nearly no value in betting.
    • IamPoZ
      IamPoZ
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2007 Posts: 10,747
      ok guys, you're right.
      thanks for your time