# how long is it possible to continue running under ev?

• Bronze
Joined: 31.01.2009
basically every session for the last 30k hands has been under ev. is this normal? i am still making profit but its practically break even. any opinions? there is nothing i can do just seems weird
• 29 replies
• Global
Joined: 12.02.2009
call an exorcist
• Bronze
Joined: 31.01.2009
Originally posted by MrPavlos
call an exorcist
• Black
Joined: 03.03.2008
3,124,985,122 hands
• Bronze
Joined: 18.09.2008
Originally posted by redskwerl
3,124,985,122 hands
How have you calculated this? Are you using the Spakowsky methodology? Prometheus' theorem? Have you factored in the Radulus constant?

Or have you just taken 1,562,492,561 and multiplied by 2? you naughty minx...
• Bronze
Joined: 24.05.2008
Originally posted by TobyCS
basically every session for the last 30k hands has been under ev. is this normal? i am still making profit but its practically break even. any opinions? there is nothing i can do just seems weird
30k hands is nothing .. check this :

sm112 - still shortstacking NL100 (the graph in the center, massively under EV for 435k hands)
• Bronze
Joined: 08.06.2008
If you play solid poker - it will always be below AI EV. Start chasing gutshots, backdoor flushdraws - one day you'll get lucky and be above AI EV
• Bronze
Joined: 02.11.2009
Originally posted by Jackalof
If you play solid poker - it will always be below AI EV. Start chasing gutshots, backdoor flushdraws - one day you'll get lucky and be above AI EV
I would like to know on what you are founding this assertion.

If EV is indeed only your results multiplied by your actual winning probability this should not be in any case.

The only reason i would think E.V. can give a wrong idea of how much you should be winning is if somehow the statistic calculated doesn't reflect your real winning probability.

e.g. Say KK has a preflop probability of ~80% chance of winning vs one opponent but if your actual opponent will only bet with AA you are pretty much at a ~0% winning chance with KK at least when the pot get bigger than the blinds...

So the problem with E.V. could be that it dosen't take into account the statistic of what your hands will be facing and just take a raw theorical statistic.

Implying that the higher is your hand the higher the pot goes and the tigher the opposition get, which would explain the general thread about people running under E.V. most of the time.

If you Add on top of it the Variance and eventually a LAG style that could take most of his winning out of non showdown hands you could end up with an E.V. which doesn't make much sens indeed.
• Global
Joined: 02.05.2009
Originally posted by Chippolata
Originally posted by Jackalof
If you play solid poker - it will always be below AI EV. Start chasing gutshots, backdoor flushdraws - one day you'll get lucky and be above AI EV
I would like to know on what you are founding this assertion.

If EV is indeed only your results multiplied by your actual winning probability this should not be in any case.

The only reason i would think E.V. can give a wrong idea of how much you should be winning is if somehow the statistic calculated doesn't reflect your real winning probability.

e.g. Say KK has a preflop probability of ~80% chance of winning vs one opponent but if your actual opponent will only bet with AA you are pretty much at a ~0% winning chance with KK at least when the pot get bigger than the blinds...

So the problem with E.V. could be that it dosen't take into account the statistic of what your hands will be facing and just take a raw theorical statistic.

Implying that the higher is your hand the higher the pot goes and the tigher the opposition get, which would explain the general thread about people running under E.V. most of the time.

If you Add on top of it the Variance and eventually a LAG style that could take most of his winning out of non showdown hands you could end up with an E.V. which doesn't make much sens indeed.
You greatly missunderstand how the EV line works.
• Bronze
Joined: 02.11.2009
Originally posted by lennonac
You greatly missunderstand how the EV line works.

If you have anything else to add like:

e.g: how it works.

That would be even more interesting though.
• Global
Joined: 02.05.2009
Originally posted by Chippolata
Originally posted by lennonac
You greatly missunderstand how the EV line works.

If you have anything else to add like:

e.g: how it works.

That would be a lot more interesting though.
The ev line is the Equaity you have in the pot at point of the all in so if you are
All in with AA you have around 80eq against another Pocket pair.
If the pot is \$10 you equaity is \$8

It has nothing to do with what you might get called with it is to do with what you DO get called with
• Bronze
Joined: 02.11.2009
Originally posted by lennonac
The ev line is the Equaity you have in the pot at point of the all in so if you are
All in with AA you have around 80eq against another Pocket pair.
If the pot is \$10 you equaity is \$8

It has nothing to do with what you might get called with it is to do with what you DO get called with

Correct me if i am wrong but this is EXACTLY what i am saying.

And I just say that the difference in between E.V. and your actual money could actually be the difference in between your statistic theorical equity and your real contextual equity.
• Bronze
Joined: 26.06.2009
Contextual equity has nothing to do with an EV graph, an EV graph is only when you go all-in because then the opposition cards are known, the whole point is that its 100% accurate indication of what, mathematically, you should have won in all your all-in pots. Maybe someday we'll get a more coomplicated "contextual equity" line that you speak of- kind of hard to do though.
• Global
Joined: 02.05.2009
Originally posted by Chippolata
Originally posted by lennonac
The ev line is the Equaity you have in the pot at point of the all in so if you are
All in with AA you have around 80eq against another Pocket pair.
If the pot is \$10 you equaity is \$8

It has nothing to do with what you might get called with it is to do with what you DO get called with

Correct me if i am wrong but this is EXACTLY what i am saying.

And I just say that the difference in between E.V. and your actual money could actually be the difference in between your statistic theorical equity and your real contextual equity.
You were banging on about opponents calling ranges, which has nothing to do with it
• Bronze
Joined: 02.11.2009
I give up
• Bronze
Joined: 08.06.2008
If EV is indeed only your results multiplied by your actual winning probability this should not be in any case.

mmm, what?

EV is expected value, not your results multiplied by Teddy Bear.

I'll put it in another way. If you play solid and go all-in knowing you're ahead most of the time, you will always be below all-in EV. Always. Because villain will suck out from time to time. If you are a bluffing maniac and go all-in with random crap, someday you'll suck out like god and be way above all-in EV. Correct me if I'm wrong.

(I specifically did not use words like contextual equity, cooimplicated, rocket science, or Teddy Bear, so every reader, especially not native speaker, could grasp my thoughts)
• Bronze
Joined: 17.04.2007
It doesn't matter if you go allin as a favorite or not... In the long run you should win what you deserve...
• Bronze
Joined: 05.12.2008
Let me write a few things here about being under EV.

Suppose you're under EV for X hands. Then you found your leaks and start to correct them. Do you think your actual winnings will be the same as EV ? Answer is in ideal conditions NO. You will be putting your money IN when you're AHEAD, that's because you fixed your leaks. But your EV line will always be above since the time you fixed your leaks.

In my opinion, a good player can never have an EV graph below actual winnings . If your EV line is declining while your actual winnings are climbing then you're getting lucky after you put your money IN while you were not to favorite winner. If your actual winnings declining while EV line climbing then you're getting unlucky. If both decreasing you're playing bad poker (you have a little bad luck but mainly playing bad). If both increasing then you're playing good poker (with some good luck). That's all I think.
• Bronze
Joined: 02.12.2006
Originally posted by Jackalof
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Wrong

Two simple reasons..
- It doesnt care for coolers
- It doesnt care when youre on the river with money still to play for

My advice is that if you're playing with a big stack, don't look at the ev line ever. It's just never going to be accurate, because variance is bigger than most people imagine - different board textures, different opponents, flop turn and river play, hand ranges (running into top or bottom of a persons hand range) and so on... Simply, not many hands are alike if they go beyond the flop. And to get an accurate sample of, for example, different river situations, you're going to have to... well, I don't know how

If you're shortstacking however I can see that you could look at it in a large sample, because most of your play is preflop and on the flop.
• Bronze
Joined: 03.01.2009
So basically you're saying EV line is not at all important ? That's a first , but a quite pertinent opinion imo.