[NL2-NL10] Nl200 Ak

    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
      SB ($374)
      BB ($200)
      Hero ($31)
      UTG+1 ($47.70)
      UTG+2 ($209)
      MP1 ($33)
      CO ($42)
      BTN ($55.65)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: K:diamond:

      Hero raises to $6, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $6, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($15) Q:diamond: T:club: 9:spade:

      Hero bets $9, CO raises to $36 (AI), Hero calls $16 (AI)

      Villain is 32/13, AFq flop 51%, bet vs missed cb 67% IP (9cases), 57% OOP (14 cases), F 2 cb 37%, Raise cb 24% - Sample 1.4k

      I think the bet call is somewhat marginal here though I still gotta do it given the small remaing stack. Afterwards I contemplated a ch/r rather than bet/call, since he seems to be quite aggressive. But if he checks behind things could get ugly on the Turn. Thoughts?
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Let's see the situation first as the way I see it with his shoving range:

      Board: Q T 9

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 26.246% 22.73% 03.52% 34660403 5366648.50 { A:cK }
      Hand 1: 73.754% 70.24% 03.52% 107114892 5366662.50 { 99+, AJs+, KJs+, Q9s+, J8s+, T9s, AJo+, KJo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
      Ofcourse J8s is quite extreme as is J9/Q9 but given he's 31/12, I think this is a realistic shoving range

      You need 25.8% (rake is substracted $3) but I do think 0.4% equity advantage is like hmpf.

      If you check, I think c/f is better than c/RAI since 1) He will only bet with made hands hence reducing your FEQ. 2) Your c/RAI gives him even the odds to call profitably with a 6 outer (he's getting 3.1:1)

      If he checks back Flop, then I can safely assume he has a worser hand than u so u bet the Turn.

      Personally I don't like QT9r as a cBet/call board so I rather check Flop and see what he does.

      I leave it open for a second opinion

      Hope it helps
      - Gerv
    • ysessa
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      its very close here, with b/c you can maybe get him to fold 22-77, but with c/r you can maybe induce some bluffs from small suited connector. Anyway there is no way i fold ak here with remaining stacksizes.
    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Thanks a lot, guys!