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Odds&outs for advanced players - sample question

    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Yup, yup, I'm doing my homework... =)

      So, I was reading the above mentioned article and this sample confused me:

      Pre-flop: Hero is BU with 7 :heart: , 6 :heart:
      Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls.

      Flop: (4.5 SB) 8, :spade: Q, :club: 4 :diamond: , (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero ?


      You can only continue playing according to odds and outs after the BB's check/raise.

      How many discounted outs do you have?
      You can be sure that your 4 gutshot outs are clean. You also have a 0-gap BDSD with the 8. *This gives you an additional 1.5 outs. You can give yourself 1 full out for the BDSD, since a 5 would complete your gutshot. You can't give yourself outs on your hole cards, since the BB is sure to have a strong hand when he isn't bluffing; he has a polarized range. ** All in all, you have 5 outs


      * So... 5 = 4 outs; BDSD (9, T) = 1, 5 outs. What has gutshot to do with BDSD outs?

      ** 4 outs + 1,5 outs = 5 outs? ?(

      Tell me, what am I missing here... :)
  • 6 replies
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Hi Berkstajger,

      weird hand. I thin I would never think about a backdoorstraightdraw when I have a gutshot.

      Well let's exchange the 4 :diamond: with a 2 :diamond: . Now you only have the 0-gap BDSD.
      A 5 or 9 would now give you an OESD. A T or 4 a gutshot.
      All these cards that give you a better draw are combined to the 1,5 mentioned outs.

      Now as a 5 won't give us any draw as it already completes our gutshot we have to reduce the 1,5 outs. Here it was removed by 0,5.

      Now that I think about it I see that a 4 won't give us a gutshot anymore as we already have that. I think it should be mentioned there as well.
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Ah, I understand now. I didn't even see the lower BDSD because of the gutshot. With a gutshot those outs overlap and it's clear that some part of BDSD has to be reduced, but on what basis exactly 0.5 or (1/3) of out is removed is a bit beyond my understanging at the moment. :)
    • Joshquan
      Joshquan
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2009 Posts: 479
      isnt this just part of the build up, explaining why you can call with 7:1 odds with your gutshot rather than the basic ~11:1 you would need with our 4 outs?

      The fact that whenever you have a gutshot you always have a backdoor straight draw (except with some broadway gutshots) which are not taken into account if you just take you 4 direct gutshot outs. Add this to implieds and you get you 7:1 on a rainbow board and 9:1 on a 2 flush board (I think!)
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Now that is a good point. I never thought about that before.
      But it's not always 1 out worth. With 75 you have less backdoorouts as a 9 only gives you a gutshot and no cards ever gives you an OESD.
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      That is an interesting point about how, although you only get 4 outs with a gutshot, you can call with less than the required odds in certain situations. Being that this is a heads-up hand, it may be one of them.

      I think the BDSD wouldn't be considered here, though I could be wrong. But 1.5 outs for a BDSD would include not only the T and 9, but the 5 and 4 as well. The 4 on the board already and you can't include the 5 because it is already an out from the gutshot, leaving only 1/2 of the BDSD as outs. So it seems that the BDSD would be reduced by half to .75.

      Then, the T and 9 also give a straight to JT, which is a likely hand for almost any opponent. Also, if only one leftover BDSD out hits, it could give 2nd pair to the opponent and in a heads up situation, many players will at least call down on non-scary boards when it hits, especially with a dry flop like this. So in essence, the BDSD outs could also help your opponent beat you and can therefore be discounted, leaving you with 4 gutshot outs.

      But the necessity of lesser odds to call with a gutshot (from more advanced concepts) may tie in somehow, but that is my thought process. If it is flawed, hopefully someone will correct it because this is an interesting question.
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      lke you thought. Maybe that example has to be redone or at least reduced by the outs we have.