[NL2-NL10] AQs NL5. Improve to nut flushdraw on turn.

    • pablomeza
      Joined: 22.08.2009 Posts: 508
      Known players:       

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with Q:spade: , A:spade:
      Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.20, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($0.47) 6:diamond: , 4:heart: , K:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30.

      Turn: ($1.07) 9:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, MP3 raises to $1.70, Hero...?

      It's either fold or push right? Against unknown player, and with a marginal hand, fold?
  • 4 replies
    • Mstlc
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      Originally posted by pablomeza
      It's either fold or push right? Against unknown player, and with a marginal hand, fold?
      Actually... you should call here. 3bet shoving is overplayed here as he's most likely on a set, two pair or AK for TPTK if I look at his line here.

      You are however getting ~4:1 on your call here (you have to call $0.90 in a $3.57 pot) which is about enough to fish for your flush here. Just call the turn imo.

      On the river then... if the board blanks you check/fold. If the board completes your flush you can either donkbet yourself (if your opponent is passive) or you could check/shove if your opponent is aggro.

      PS: I like your play here, this is a really good spot for a second barrel, cause you do have a ton of FE still as people tend to float stuff like 77 here, maybe 76s, 65s etc. Also if he flats again and you make your runner runner flush you can probably take a lot of money off him as he has no idea what kind of hand you have here.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Being OOP I would likely fold the hand, I don't expect to have any kind of fold equity there so pushing ain't a solution there.

      Best regards,
    • radyan111
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      You have to call 0,9 into 3,57 so you need around 25% equity. Your flushdraw will complete in 9 out of 46 cases which is a little less than 20%.

      You would need some implieds to make a call profitable which I think you have since you are on a backdoor draw so it would be harder for your opponent to put you on it. You would have to donk out the river many times however and it often scares players away if the flush arrives.

      You also have to consider what you do if you hit an ace on the river - it can have reverse implied odds.

      All in all I think a fold is safer way out of the hand, yet calling doesn't look like a big mistake here.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Both sides for calling and folding have strong arguments, and we all agree that shoving is pure spew.

      The worse he is the more it's a call in my opinion, because bad players won't care that the backdoor flush got there they're 100% calling a donkbet on the river with any made hand they raise there for value, hell they might even raise a worse flushdraw sometimes or weird two pairs hands that don't taint your flush outs too much. From his betsizing and the fact he doesn't have autorebuy on he might not be so good, but since it's enough for him to shove the river anyway we probably can't read too much into it.

      If he's good he'll show a set almost always so we don't have 9 clean outs, and he'll be more likely to find a fold if we donk a flushing river. If we check, the worse good players will check back anyway, the decent ones will still jam a set thinking you have AK or something similar so getting money in won't be that hard.

      All-in-all if he's an idiot i'd call. If he looks decent i'd call or fold depending on how likely i think he is to shove the river if i check / fold if i donk out, if you can't guesstimate his poker IQ further than "he's okay" you're probably better off cutting your losses to prevent a costly mistake somewhere in a rather thin situation.

      Hope it helps.