[NL2-NL10] NL50, AJs

    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      Opponent is 12/10/1.4 WtSD=35%, fold to cbet =70%, c/r flop=6% on 1.3k hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($117)
      BB ($51.90)
      UTG ($28.50)
      UTG+1 ($47.75)
      UTG+2 ($129)
      MP1 ($29.25)
      Hero ($11.25)
      BTN ($10.25)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, fold, BB calls $1

      FLOP ($3.25) K:heart: J:heart: 2:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises to $10, Hero?

      Against this opponent it's a fold, right?
      edit: but that kinda high WtSD makes me dubious.
  • 4 replies
    • delete461
      delete461
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      i'd fold it anyway, he is unlikely to checkraise with a worse hand than yours
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey jenoc,

      1.

      against this villain I find fold quite easy. A 12/10 guy will rarely have a draw here, so I will put him on 22/Kx most of the time and sometimes even slowplayed AA.

      And his high WTS is due the fact he is pretty tight thus has a strong range and can go to the showdown quite often.

      2.

      I just realized this is actually a blind battle because you're openraising CO and the stats provided are relatively irrelevant. Although he playes 12/10 he might defend his blinds aggressively, so you should look at his foldBB2steal and callBB2steal to get a better picture about his range. If you provide those stats as well, I can give you better advice, but if his callBB2steal is more or less similar to call average, then you can look at evaluation under 1.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      burek2000,

      Villains BB vs steal stats are: 69/17/15 fold/call/3bet, do this change anything?
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey jenoc,

      Originally posted by jenoc
      burek2000,

      Villains BB vs steal stats are: 69/17/15 fold/call/3bet, do this change anything?
      with 1.3k hands in sample size this is quite significant read, because you see then this player isn't a tight 12/10 player, but plays against a steal 31%!!! of his hands meaning he is very loose actually. And I believe he will 3-bet most of his value range preflop and cold call more speculative hands which means he will more often have a hand like FD/OESD/maybe Jx in his c/r range rather than Kx. So, I would prefer to go broke against him and make a note of what he calls steal with and then plays c/r on the flop.

      You have to always look at the right stats when you're basing your decision on them, because if you don't stats can be misleading.

      Regards,
      burek2000