[NL20-NL50] 88 on 764r 3bettet

    • AceOnRiver
      Joined: 02.08.2006 Posts: 608
      Known players:

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:spade: , 8:diamond:
      2 folds, BU raises to $1,50, Hero raises to $5,50, BB folds, BU calls $4,00.

      Flop: ($11,50) 7:heart: , 6:club: , 4:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5,50, BU raises to $11,50 Hero ?

      Well we have overpair and a gutshot but when it goes in our overpair will probably not have much value so we might have only 6 outs,

      fold or shove ?
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Interesing spot. Your flop bet seems weakish, which might have led villain to min-raise. I would bet around 7.50-8 here.

      As played, I prefer calling his min-raise and re-evaluating on the turn. As mentioned, you have 6 outs and villain seems aggressive enough to make use of the dangerous board to scare you off an overpair type hand.

      Turn c/r if you hit a 6-outer, otherwise c/f
    • kosmonaut111
      Joined: 26.01.2009 Posts: 715
      You get so good odds. You need something around 7:1 to call profitably with your 6 outs. But if we consider, that your outs are definetly (almost) clean and also not obvious (3bet pot), you can expect to get payed. You have here 4,75:1 So if you hit on turn you need another 13 $ from your opponent. That should not be the problem. He could even give you a free card on turn, if he has something like 99 - TT (JJ) and is afraid of bigger overpair (dont know why should he ....).
      And lastly like said your opponent may be bluffing with 2 overcards, and you are comfortably ahead then.
      i think shoving here is pointless. every weaker hand folds, and you get called by sets and stronger overpairs. Only plus side is that you may get something like 99-TT (or JJ) to fold.

      It gets harder if he fires bigger on turn, then you have to look again do you have enough equity here.

      If he checks on turn, you can expect to be ahead. On safe river (it means not Q-A), you can blockbet/valuebet half pot or little less.

      Hope my calculations were correct.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d shove
      If you 3-bet hands like 88 pf then you shouldn´t really b/f or b/c them as overpair on low board flop where people are often making moves with anything
    • AceOnRiver
      Joined: 02.08.2006 Posts: 608
      hm yeh i thought i can not get away from my hand so i decided to make weakish looking bet to perhabs get a bluffraise and then shove over it.
      Still kosmonaut111 is right if you get call here ur probably really dead