Please Review My Hand Analysis

    • MinerBoy
      Joined: 11.09.2009 Posts: 8
      G'day chaps. Below is a transcript of a hand I analysed for a friend who is not new to poker, but is new to playing for real $ online and I believe struggles to think his way through a hand. I guess what I am looking for is feedback as to whether my analysis of this hand is reasonable. Am I myself missing something obvious? It is a long read but any feedback would be appreciated - I would like to find out if my thoughts patterns are on the right track. Cheers, MinerBoy.

      OK, seeing as you haven’t attempted to tackle an analysis of this hand I will do so for you. My analysis is below the hand details. For the record, I wasn’t one of the players but I was seated at the table it happened at.

      Player 1 – JJ
      Player 2 – 67 suited
      (Blinds 0.10/0.25) – both players with about $25 pre flop.

      Player 1 raises to 0.85
      Player 2 raises to 3.00
      Player 1 calls
      All other players folded pre flop

      Flop 58J

      Player 1 checks
      Player 2 bets 4.00
      Player 1 calls

      Turn 9

      Player 1 all in (approx $17-$18)
      Player 2 calls (about the same)

      Pre-Flop Action – Actions by both players are fine. Player 1 acts earlier with JJ and makes a standard pot sized raise. Perfectly acceptable. Player 2 was on the button and makes a deceptive play. This isn’t a move you make often but one you have to make sometimes to hide the strength of your hands. If he gets re-raised he can easily fold and it only costs him $3, at the same time giving the impression he is a thief. So when he picks up KK AA later on, he hopes for a similar scenario but this time is willing to get it all in pre-flop. If he gets called and hits the flop hard, 67 is a hand that will be hard for his opponent to put him on and he is likely to get paid off big time by a hand in the overpair category. The key is that suited connectors are good hands for this type of play – you don’t want to do it with hands like K3o or J5 etc. As it is, JJ just calls which is fine. Take a look at the flop and make your decision then on how to proceed. No need to create a massive pre-flop pot with JJ with someone else showing strength. Therefore, nice play by both players so far.

      Flop Play – Players 1 flops top set and player 2 an open ended straight draw. As player 2 was the pre-flop aggressor, and the board looks fairly safe for player 1, he should check and let player 2 make a continuation bet. He checks – good move. Player 2 – his pre-flop raise represents a big hand such as AA-TT, AK. He should make a continuation bet here on a good board for him. Player 1 is unlikely to have him on 67 so if he just gets called he has outs to a monster hand that is well disguised and he knows player 1 must have a hand that he might be willing to play for all his chips. If he gets re-raised he can let the pot go and fold. He bets about 2/3 pot – good move.

      Here is the first mistake, although an understandable one. Player 1 should be check/raising now. The pot is about $10.00 and if player 2 has a hand like AA-QQ he will find it almost impossible to fold on this board. If he has a smaller set then same again. He should come in for a raise of the pot which would be $18 ($10 pot + $4 to call = $14. Pot is $14. Therefore, raise it to = $18 à $4 to call plus $14 pot = $18). As he has a stack of about $22 he may as well go all in. As it turns out, player 2 doesn’t have a hand like that and SHOULD fold to that bet, which would take the pot down for player 1 straight away. Of course, player 2 could still call but he wouldn’t be getting the correct odds to make this a profitable move in the long run.

      Instead he just calls. Effectively his mistake is letting player 2 see the next card for free. Understandable in the sense that he is very unlikely to have player 2 on 67 and doesn’t realize he is on a drawing hand that could crush him. A win for player 2 and exactly what he hopes would happen at worst (at best he hopes player 1 folds right now). This is the value in his deceptive play. If player 2 misses on the turn he will be hoping player 1 once again checks to him, which would allow him to check as well and get another chance for free to hit his draw. If he misses and player 1 comes out betting enough to deny him odds, he should give up on this hand, having lost only $7.

      Turn Play – Perfect card for player 2. Makes his straight. The pot is now about $14. Both players have stacks of about $17 or $18. Although the board reads 58J9, it is really hard for player 1 to put player 2 on a straight here. Certainly 56789. Hands that make a straight on that board are 67, T7, QT. None of those hands are really consistent with how player 2 has played the hand so far. T7 and QT would have been gutshots on the flop (and T7 in particular is very unlikely to be raising pre flop anyway) and would have been better off checking the flop to see a free card, rather than risking getting re-raised out of the pot. 67 represented an OESD on the flop but like I said, it is hard for player 1 to think player 2 has bet like he has with 67. As it is, the best move for player 1 here is to push all in (even though he is behind). Why? As I said, a straight is extremely unlikely. Even though he is wrong, he has to think he has the best hand. Why he wants to bet is for 2 reasons. (1) More likely than a straight, is that player 2 may now have a straight draw with something like TT, QQ or even AQ or AT (unlikely) and should get all the chips in now while he has (he thinks) the best hand. He is denying a draw the odds to call whilst still hoping they make the mistake and call because he is favourite to beat a draw a large % of the time. (2) If player 2 has a hand like AA or KK and player 1 has him beaten, he wants to get all the chips in now. Not because he is worried about an A or K on the river, but because there are a few scare cards that could come on the river which allow player 2 to be able to fold without losing anymore money. Any T, Q, 6, or 7 make a straight for someone more likely and someone with AA/KK may be able to fold the river if one of these cards comes ,meaning his set won’t get as much value from the hand as it could. However, AA KK are unlikely to fold to an all in on the turn so the best play is to get all the chips in now.

      Therefore, player 1 hasn’t really made a mistake going all in. He is beating nearly every hand that player 2 could have and the ones beating him are extremely unlikely. His mistake was not making player 2 make a hard decision on the flop. As it is, player 2 has just outplayed him in the hand. They both have excellent hands and all in for both is the only result possible here. Unfortunately for player 1 he is behind. Of course, he still has outs. Any 58J9 will improve his hand to a full house or quads. That means 3 x 5s, 3 x 8s, 1 x J, 3 x 9s = 10 outs. He is still 20% or 4-1 to win the hand.

      In the end, a well played hand by both players and nice hands for both players.

      This example was to show you that you need to make decisions on every street and analyse the way the hand has played. Sometimes you will lose and sometimes not. Player 1 made 1 mistake and even then it was not that bad and very understandable. Player 2 played it perfectly – and was allowed to by player 1. Just because certain hands are possible, you need to analyse what has happened through the hand and each betting round to determine how likely certain hands are and try to determine what range of hands your opponent might have. There will be some hands that beat you but if on the balance you are beating most hands in a players range (as player 1 was), then that’s what you have to make your decision on. Especially the hands most likely. By the same token, player 2 played a speculative hand really well. He had the initiative all through the hand and kept the pot cheap enough that should he ever get reraised he could fold without too much damage but was then able to get all his chips in the middle when he hit his straight and had a big lead with one card to come.
  • 1 reply
    • jonnyquest
      Joined: 21.09.2009 Posts: 285
      You should really take a look at the sample hands forum. You can see how hands are analyzed clearly while short, to the point and informative. First things I notice are you don't mention position or stats. A raise can mean many different things from different people in different positions. For example if this was a blind battle or a steal re-steal situation or UTG vs MP1 it could have been well played or full of leaks. Do your friend a favor and send him a link to