[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH ATo two-pair

    • koaesica
      koaesica
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 1,066
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3(Hero):
      $61.12
      CO:
      $29.35
      BU:
      $25.00
      SB:
      $6.07
      BB:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, T.
      Hero raises to $1.00, CO calls $1.00, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($2.35) A, 4, T (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50.

      Turn: ($5.35) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, CO raises to $7.50,

      Villain is playing 15/11/2.75 over 123 hands.

      I think folding here is ok. He would play a set this way, the occasional KJ-float or AQ. He probably wouldn't reraise any worse ace on the turn, nor a flushdraw (he would probably reraise the FD on the flop if he was going for a reraise). What do you think?
  • 6 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      are you sure that he is never going to raise there QT?
      seems kind of strange to fold two pair against turn raise where any draw didn´t complete and since there is some % that player is bluffing or raising turn with worse hands
      I´d just shove, if he slowplayed 44 then you can make note or if he had AQ/KJ then just unlucky
    • koaesica
      koaesica
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 1,066
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      are you sure that he is never going to raise there QT?
      seems kind of strange to fold two pair against turn raise where any draw didn´t complete and since there is some % that player is bluffing or raising turn with worse hands
      I´d just shove, if he slowplayed 44 then you can make note or if he had AQ/KJ then just unlucky
      Yeah, he'd probably reraise QT. But still, do enough worse hands really reraise the turn for a shove to be profitable?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Well either he's bluffing or has a monster, I prefer to flat call and re-evaluate on the river.

      @ Kaitz, I don't think we get any value here by shoving, as barring an unlikely semi-bluff FD raise, it's a way ahead-way behind situation.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      since board is not that drawy I think it is likely not way ahead/way behind situation. b/c is reasonable on the turn, but then there would come a lot of scare cards that would c/f your hand, like any heart, likely K and J maybe even Q
      So if you b/c turn, you have to c/f a lot of river cards, which with two pair is not likely the best play, so I´d prefer getting all-in on the turn
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I appreciate that, but I don't think any other hand can call shove on turn, maybe with the exception of QT, but i think 15/11 TAG villain is also capable of folding QT to a shove on that board. If he calls we are likely drawing to a 4 outer.

      I also think the cooler cards on the river will slow villain down, for example if he has 44
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      sure if you´re behind then scare cards would kill likely action on the river
      but I wouldn´t think I´m behind too often with two pair, thatś why I´d shove for value and protection
      Just if you take there b/c line with two pair which hands would you shove for value AQ+. That would make playing against range very profitable with semibluffs if you´re not willing to get all-in even with two pair against turn raise or drawy board.