Hi Alverine.

In that case, if the hero can get 1st place 16% of the time, the chance of doing it five times in a row is 0,16^5 = 0,0001048576.

Looks pretty close to 0%, but, remember the prize is $10.000. So with the above mentioned chance, his equity for that prize is almost $1,05.

For each 5 games he will pay exactly $0,20 x 5 = $1 extra in fees compared to a site with cheaper fees. And $1,05 - $1 = $0,05.

So a player who can win one of these SNGs 16% of the time can play five of these SNGs during a promotion like that one, and, comparing extra rake paid and prize equity, he gets almost 5 cents of positive expected value!!

If he could win 50% of the time, the EV in terms of extra rake vs jackpot of playing five $3 SNGs during the promotion would be brutal: +$311,50

This is still a simplified and not quite accurate way of looking at it. Some of the things we have not considered and that make EV better include:

- The fact that if the hero doesn't get 1st place on his 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th SNG he doesn't pay the full $1 of extra rake, because the "succession of 5" ends prematurely. And that happens way more often than winning 4 SNGs in a row and then failing to win the 5th one.

OR

- In case we "force" our hero to play a set of 5 every day regardless of the result, if he gets a result like lose-lose-win-win-win on a set, on his next set he will only have to win his first and second SNGs, and he gets the jackpot. This is why I asked for a formula that would calculate the "expected/average number of happy streaks" given an "x" hero's 1st place frequency and a succession of 50.000 games by the way.

Rigging them is not supposed to be possible by the way (hi excelgeo and Octhellior), the handing of the jackpot is not automatic, you have to send an email to support after accomplishing it, and they check for any signs of cheating before awarding the prize.

The promotion was for December 2009 only, though. It's over, but maybe it will be back.