*Originally posted by Kruppe*

*Originally posted by ladman*

how does it even out, if you only push when you're good won't it only be below your ev line.

please correct me cos i know this is wrong

it doesn't automatically even out, and your theory makes no sense. why should pushing when you're good make you run below EV?

At first thought many people think like this it seems like.

A short explanation for those who think so.

Say you go allin with 90% equity in a 100$ pot. On the EV-side of this you win 90$ so if you win a hand you are 10$ above EV and if you loose you are 90 below EV. But this is just for one hand, theoreticly this will even out since if you play this hand an infinite ammount of times you will win 90 times out of 100 and you will get 90 on an average ergo on the EV line.

But since we dont play an infinite ammount of hands we never get there and accually the fact that it all should even out is a big lie.

Say you had a upswing 10BI above EV. There is nothing that say that you are more likely in the future to go down those 10BI in EV since every hand you play is an isolated event not affected by others. Of course this is true the other way around as well so dont think you "deserve" an upswing after your long downswing guys

As an endpoint here, chances of EV accually evening out in our graphs are very low so running on EV is accually not expected in a game of such variance as poker