AK on the bubble

    • fenderboy993
      fenderboy993
      Silver
      Joined: 22.07.2009 Posts: 31
      Hi,

      Just wondering if this the correct play considering the circumstances. $6.50 9 player sit n go turbo, 4 players left, one big stack 6000, me 4000, 2 players 1750. Blinds at 200/400.

      Im in the big blind, the big stack raises to 1200 on the button. Small stack folds leavin him with less than 4 BB. I look down and see AK. He had done this raise the last 3 times he was on the button so i was gettin frustrated, but still though i would be miles ahead, so i shove, even though if i had folded 3rd would be pretty much guaranteed. But still was it right to go for it and try and get a stack so i get 1st? I mean there are times when i think insta shove and others where i think i should maybe have folded, but maybe thats just because of the outcome.....

      I mean, its irrelevant that he calls with 78s and flops a flush but what can you do ;)

      Thanks for any replies
  • 24 replies
    • fulja
      fulja
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2009 Posts: 235
      I shove...i mean, you're behind only if he has AA/KK, so most of the time you're either ahead or at least on a coinflip.
    • DannyG13
      DannyG13
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2009 Posts: 1,150
      Originally posted by fulja
      I shove...i mean, you're behind only if he has AA/KK, so most of the time you're either ahead or at least on a coinflip.
      Agreed. Plus, 9 man SnG's are played to finish first, not just to cash. ;)
    • fenderboy993
      fenderboy993
      Silver
      Joined: 22.07.2009 Posts: 31
      Yes i appreciate what you are both saying, i know im almost certainly ahead, but in the long run would folding here make me more money than shoving?

      I mean as it turned out i was only 59% to win the hand, so folding may leave me with more chance in the long run of making more money, as that means 41% of the time i end up with nothing, wheras if i fold i maybe come 4th 5% of the time? So which is more profitable?
    • fulja
      fulja
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2009 Posts: 235
      Well I'd say no, cause if you fold AK in this particular situation how are you going to call anything else later while having even less chips and a less fold equity when shoving?

      True, you are ITM almost surely if you fold, but still, I'd play to double up and have a chance on winning first place rather than trying to sneak in the third place.

      AK is too good of a hand for me to fold in this situation no matter what prospective I look at the situation from.

      Just my humble opinion :D Not like I'm an expert or a pro in any way :D
    • player9000
      player9000
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2008 Posts: 837
      Easy fold. :)
    • z4tz
      z4tz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.05.2008 Posts: 2,043
      In this position AK is a fold unfortunately. It looks very pretty and so on but as previously stated you only win about 65% of the time even against ATC. That means 35% of the time you stand there without any cash at all.

      I did a fast calc with ICM which gave me a callingrange of 99+ if he pushed ATC from button there.

      Remember here that if you get ITM you win 20%, if you come first you only win 30% more of the pool and a double up here is far from a guarantee on any win, not even a certain ITM-finnish as noone is knocked out.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
      Global
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      icm says its a fold, you shouldnt even think about it, reraising or calling is -$ev for sure
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      easy fold for me. play to increase your equity, not for first or third or tenth or what ever. you fold and make easy money with a farily good chance of still coming first. you call and win you still have easy money with a slightly better chance of coming first. you call and lose, well you have $0 and pleny of time to go on poker stragety and ask if it was right to call. so win win wither way i guess :)
    • fenderboy993
      fenderboy993
      Silver
      Joined: 22.07.2009 Posts: 31
      Yeh thanks for the replies guys :s_biggrin:

      The more I think about it I know I should have folded without ICM working it out for me, I think it was more of a semi-on tilt shove.

      But thank you for some good answers as to why :D
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      AK is a fold but im reshoving JJ+ with some FE.
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      I'm shoving AK here, not sure how ICM works here since we don't know his calling range. AK is way ahead of his range and if we include a decent amount of FE I think it is ok.
    • wquinn636
      wquinn636
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.10.2009 Posts: 64
      Originally posted by GunFlavoured
      I'm shoving AK here, not sure how ICM works here since we don't know his calling range. AK is way ahead of his range and if we include a decent amount of FE I think it is ok.
      Was wondering the same thing. I'm reshoving every time here. Definitely got a bit of fold equity and we dominate a lot of his calling range.
    • Anssi
      Anssi
      Black
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      AK would be fold if he was pushing, but as he is raising and you can reraise him, you probably have decent amount of fold equity so push is correct.
    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Now I think this hand should be posted in the evaulation thread.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      You would have to be sure of your FE. Since he called with a low SC, there was none. So ICM is right here.
    • Anssi
      Anssi
      Black
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      Originally posted by aciddrop
      You would have to be sure of your FE. Since he called with a low SC, there was none. So ICM is right here.
      But we don't know that we don't have any fold equity at time.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      We are on the bubble, we should have some read on the guy. He isn't making a play like this for the first time in this hand. IMO.
    • Anssi
      Anssi
      Black
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      Well, if no one has played back on him w can't know. Also note that this is a turbo tournament so less hands have been played. Even if he is loose doesn't mean he is a loose caller in these spots. One more thing: even if you don't want to push, you still should at least call and see the flop, because he will very likely make cont. bet and stack with any pair he hits.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by DannyG13
      Originally posted by fulja
      I shove...i mean, you're behind only if he has AA/KK, so most of the time you're either ahead or at least on a coinflip.
      Agreed. Plus, 9 man SnG's are played to finish first, not just to cash. ;)
      this is so wrong
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