[NL20-NL50] Nl 50 Sh Aj

    • AlanMufc
      AlanMufc
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 46
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP2:
      $13.97
      CO:
      $36.80
      Hero:
      $84.07

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.69 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:diamond: , J:club:
      MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, MP2 calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50.

      Flop: ($6.75) T:spade: , K:diamond: , 6:diamond: (3 players)
      MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($6.75) K:club: (3 players)
      MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($6.75) Q:club: (3 players)
      MP2 checks, CO bets $3.37, Hero raises to $10.00, MP2 folds, CO raises to $34.80 (All-In), Hero calls $24.80.

      Final Pot: $76.35

      Thoughts?

      It's pretty marginal but it looks so unlikely he could have a full house by the flop and turn action right?
  • 10 replies
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Only full house beats you but i think there is no full house in play. He is thight agresive so his passive play tell us something.

      If he got before KQ, or KT he would already bet so i think this is just nice hand.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      I think we can only call here and have to fold to shove.

      I don't see our raise on river getting value from weaker hands here. I am completely ruling out AK, JK or any Kx hands because CO with high AF is definitely betting on flop or turn. Slowplayed 66 or KT fits betting perfectly here imo. It is an aggressive play from CO designed to trap and the Q was a real stroke of bad luck for you on the river.
    • ethanrox
      ethanrox
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 434
      If he had J9 you woudnt post the hand, but I think that s the bigger part of villains range because of his line which makes much more unlikely for him to have KT or KQ vs having J9.

      If we discount some of the 12 combos of KQ and KT to say 6 due to his check on the turn and 66 to let s say 2. We are facing 8 combos value shoving range vs 16 combos of J9 which I think fit perfectly to his overall line. But even if we discount them heavily to say...5 combos only, we still have a pretty clear call.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      If he had J9 you woudnt post the hand, but I think that s the bigger part of villains range because of his line which makes much more unlikely for him to have KT or KQ vs having J9.


      It is far less likely that 15/12 TAG is limping with J9o from CO after limp from MP2 than with 66. If we limit his limping to J9s, then we only have 3 combinations.

      Secondly, Villain is also aggressive and tricky enough to check with KT on turn, as I mentioned this is an aggressive play and it fits his profile perfectly.

      Thirdly, he is not shoving the lower end of a straight over a river raise on a paired board. His stats reflect that he is a profitable and thinking player, high W$SD and solid values.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      against that player perfectly fine
      I think you can see also a lot of times Kx in his range
      And if you´re wrong then you´re only loosing 70bb with straight which imo is fine
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      I think you can see also a lot of times Kx in his range


      He is never having Kx there sir, If he has AK/JK he is not limping and checking two streets. Kx hands completely don't add up.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by mbml
      I think you can see also a lot of times Kx in his range


      He is never having Kx there sir, If he has AK/JK he is not limping and checking two streets. Kx hands completely don't add up.
      as you said yourself:
      Secondly, Villain is also aggressive and tricky enough to check with KT on turn, as I mentioned this is an aggressive play and it fits his profile perfectly.

      What is the difference between KT and KJ on the turn. He can both hands limp/call pf and slowplay in his eyes, although I´d expect him to lead out turn both of these hands.
      If you think he is never going to shove river anything worse than boat then fold is ok. But imo there are still enough worse combination Kx hands, J9 and who knows whatever middlestack is considering shoving value. Especially since our river raise might not seem seem reasonable to him, since we would never check back stronger hand than trips back on the turn or flop.
      So I would not choose raise/fold against that player who would limp/call pf and then decides after checking twice and leading river half potsize suddenly shows a lot of strength and shove over our river raise.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Difference between KT/KJ is that is villain has KT on the flop he is going for c/r as he is expecting Hero to contibet here. When hero checks behind and another K falls on the turn he makes his boat and checks again because he is way ahead, he wants river card to give him some action.

      Supposing he has KJ however c/r on the flop is more unlikely. High % of the time he is leading out here or playing C/C, although I would veer towards the former as he has very high AF. If he has KJ and Hero checks behind, then he is almost certainly leading out on turn, as you mentioned.

      J9 is possible here but I think we can fold to shove on river given 2-1 odds, he is middlestack but from stats quite skilled player so I would give him enough credit here to fold, he is not shoving over the top with KJ here often enough.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I agree anything that you said and if you think he has there always boat fold is fine.
      Just I would not give middlestack that much credit and since his AF is also high I think you see there enough times worse hands than out straight
    • AlanMufc
      AlanMufc
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 46
      Another point i probably should've brought up is i know that this guy is a short stacker (must've doubled up a couple of times) so the AF is very misleading.

      Oh and he had K10 for anyone wondering :)