[NL2-NL10] J9o Nl10sh

    • franeczek
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB ($14.78)
      BB ($10.15)
      Hero (Button) ($10)
      MP ($23.46)
      UTG ($24.69)
      CO ($11.93)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, J
      1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, 2 folds, MP calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.15) 2, 10, 9 (2 players)
      MP bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      Turn: ($2.15) J (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $1.53, MP raises $3.06, Hero raises $7.47 (All-In), MP calls $5.94

      River: ($20.15) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

      Total pot: $20.15

      Villian is 35/8/2.3 (VPIP/PFR/AF) after 52 hands
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I'm torn on the turn.

      While it's true that he can have QJ/KJ type of hands that donked some overs with or without a gutshot and now picked up a top pair, those hands are made less likely by the fact that we can already account for two J, and they have a decent number of outs against our J9. Also, check/minraising the turn is wildly different than donking small on the flop even for bad players, so he won't take that line with all his combos of QJ/KJ when he makes a top pair + draw.

      On the other hand, KQ/87 make just as much sense on the flop, are nutty enough to fit the check/minraise on the turn almost always, aren't blocked by the cards we can account for, and we're drawing very slim against those if we get it in. JT is somewhere in the middle, possible given the action yet blocked by the cards we have, but we're 2-outing against these too.

      Overall i still like to bet the turn because we'd lose a lot of value against top pair + draw hands by checking behind, and i don't think calling it off can ever be horrible against bad players as they will sometimes show up with worse, but i wouldn't hate folding to the check/minraise even if it seems kinda weak. Check/calling with the intention of calling a blank river is worse than bet/shoving, check/calling with the intention to fold a blank river is worse than bet/folding.

      For what it's worth, Kaitz is bet/shoving that all day long without thinking twice about it.

      Hope it helps.